Russian warship, go f**k yourself!

The Chinese just pulled out of a half billion dollar oil deal with Russia citing sanctions. Indeed the oil market is more flexible than the gas, but it's not an automatic shoe-in. There's also risks to the Russian oil industry (getting backed up to the well heads, which took them 30 years to recover from) plus the global price of oil can also go down.

As for the overall sanctions and restrictions and withdrawal of foreign companies and economic isolation and reduction of energy reliance they are very much hurting Russia. I could nearly write a short book on it by this stage. We've just had the Ru central bank head admit they are running out of resources to prop up the rouble, the next 6 months to a year are going to start getting quite funky over there, the Russians are already taking action to hide economic metrics so they can attempt to conceal this.

Wouldn’t be so sure about that.

China is guilty of genocide against the Uighur people but that doesn’t stop people from doing business with them.

Folks have no problems buying Chinese products. An inconvenient truth.

True, most people I know are critical of what's happening to the Uighur people, but none boycott Chinese goods because it's too much effort. Likewise it wouldn't be a big voting issue for them.

Ah lad ya can't come in with "Don't have the time to go through the assumptions in all those models" and then add a "but" to dismiss all those models with your own thoughts and opinions.

First of all the EU is not doing it over several years. They intend by this time next year to have virtually weaned ourselves off Russian gas . E en if we reduce our gas and oil taken from Russia by 50-60%, Russia will have no home for that for 1-2 years,even if they do by then.

Next Russia will have lost it best customer for gas and oil. Of anyone thinks that India and China will pay the prices the EU pay they are deluded.

Even at that it creates another problem for Russia. Now the pipeline must go east with extra risk involved. It also changes the balance in Russia where more economic power is switched to the Asian part of Russia

China has already other issues on its hands. COVID is still a live issue there. There own vaccines obiviously have not got the effacy of those developed in the west. It look more and more like it is not interested in upsetting it largest market. If it takes gas and oil from Putin it will drive a hard bargain.

This is all predicated on Putin still being in power in 2-3 years time. As they day a day is along yime in politics

Out of sight out of mind re the Uighar issue, in the West, the cccp seems to be on a suicide mission with its refusal to relent on it'd zero covid policy,

The media is solely focused on the Ukriane issue at the minute, and it's reverberations on the world economy and supply chains, but what's coming down the tracks with shortages of everything and anything you can think of not been able to be sourced from China is just as serious

That's a pity, in that case, for the time-being I'll have to stick to the economic analysis from the European Central bank, Oxford Economics, Deutsch bank, Goldman Sachs and all the rest of the literature by the German Council of Economic Experts.

The EU has implemented a ban on Russia coal, that's effective this summer. Oil can be sourced elsewhere. Gas is the issue, but for example Finland, which imported approx. 70% of it's nat gas from Russia estimates they will be fully off that this year. They are leasing an LNG terminal with Estonia to make up for the short-fall.

The key issue here is really just German gas. Since the war started they've reduced reliance on Russian gas from 55% to 40% presently. To get that 40% right down will take until around 2024 at current estimates.

Energy prices are high, ergo Russia is getting more revenue, for now. Keywords: for now. Keep in mind that LNG terminals aren't built and operational overnight, that said, as the year goes on, countries should start to accelerate away from Russian reliance as they find alternatives.

Russia can supplement coal/oil by selling elsewhere, but they won't automatically receive the same revenue, and as we've seen, the sanctions are already impacting oil deals with China.

Gas is the tricky one, but it cuts both ways, harder for Europe to cut in a short period, likewise it's hard for Russia to switch to alternative customers (gas requires a lot of infrastructure)

The EU says a two-thirds reliance drop this year, coal gone by summer, oil by winter. If we hit those metrics we are on track.

"You have posted at length that Germany and and Europe could and should cease trade right now."

I posted that technically it's possible but would incur a substantial hit (relatively speaking) e.g. if Germany cut tomorrow, then it's economy could expect a GDP contraction of 1% to 2% (and a few hundred thousand job losses)

Should they do it now? Idealistically yes, but realistically it's more likely to be phased out rather than ripping the bandaid off

“

As Russia launched its invasion, the US gave Ukrainian forces detailed intelligence about exactly when and where Russian missiles and bombs were intended to strike, prompting Ukraine to move air defenses and aircraft out of harm’s way, current and former US officials told NBC News.

That near real-time intelligence-sharing also paved the way for Ukraineto shoot down a Russian transport plane carrying hundreds of troops in the early days of the war, the officials say, helping repel a Russian assault on a key airport near Kyiv.”

Thats WWIII lads. No need to worry about fert prices anymore.

Gas 5 times what it was last year, fertilizer e1000 a ton, diesel near e2 a litre n could be scarce in the winter apparently. Ukrainian refugees to Ireland will cost 3billion next year putting rents and house prices even higher, and the euro getting weaker by the day.

Are we all sure that the bad guy is losing? Doesn't seem like it to me

No possibly about it. We'll whinge and moan about prices, but we have the means to pay. The millions who struggle to put food on the table are banjaxed. And it could be closer to home. Thinking here about all the food banks and the poverty running rampant through the UK at the minute

The whole thing is a joke. Poland cut off from gas this morning for refusing to pay in rubles. Price of gas jumps and more gas (at the higher price) sent through non polish pipelines to make up for it.

The answer is to flood Europe with as much gas as possible Russian included. All we are doing is creating conditions that will keep gas prices very high for the medium term which will more than make up for reduced volumes of Russian gas being bought by Europe IF the EU can actually manage to reduce dependence anywhere near what they are saying they will.

Putin only saving face, Poland was going to cut gas off at the end of May anyway.