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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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    #9782
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118972395#Comment_118972395

    What signalled for me that the economic success in recent years was likely a con came from the double speak of the government; on the one hand we were told repeatedly about booming jobs markets and soaring GDP, yet we were seeing little return from this prosperity when it came to infrastructure, education etc. investment and no meaningful reform of the income tax paid by workers or abolishment of USC (which is the sword on which FG should fall for a lot of us). We were described a picture of roses but all we could see ourselves was sh1te.

    Now I can see in the very near future, when it comes to the next budgets, that we will be told about needing to manage the public finances and perhaps even tighten belts which should not be necessary but will be needed because, in a short sentence, the free borrowing and high corporate taxes have been squandered. As a people we should not accept any push back from the government on pumping billions upon billions into infrastructure, education and housing, even now, because to accept that there aren't billions there to be invested in these areas would be to give legitimacy to the waste of public money by FF and FG.



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    #9783
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973810#Comment_118973810

    Firstly, don't be so sensitive.

    Secondly, careers going down in flames and only state pensions with no golden handshakes at the end of the rainbow is what I want to see from those responsible for the gross mismanagement of public funds via minority-stakeholder policies (i.e. institutional investors) and self-interest (e.g. Paul Hyde, Owen Keegan) to lead us to the cliff edge once again, with housing supply shortages and affordability issues being the key driver.



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    #9784
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974092#Comment_118974092

    It's not really true, reality is being distorted a bit for a nice soundbite.

    When you look at the details, it's a lot less dramatic.



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    #9785
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974743#Comment_118974743

    Around 1/3 of new homes make it to the private market in recent times and 95% of new build apartments don't make it to the private market. This keeps the potential buyers enclosed in the rental market and operates to quench supply of new homes to the private purchaser market while propping up demand for rentals. This causes all boats to rise as a result and yet we have people trying to claim the property market price increases are somehow sustainable even with such one-sided policies!

    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/just-8-000-houses-built-last-year-offered-for-sale-on-open-market-says-cif-1.4177876




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    #9786
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974709#Comment_118974709

    What's really interesting about this article is that it talks about increasing housing output not leading to more supply for private buyers which is pretty much exactly what the SF housing policy would do were it implemented.

    It would be amusing, if it were not so serious, to see this sudden concern about a lack of houses coming to the open market, given these noises are coming from people who often peddle the policies of a party who want to implement policies to reduce the number of houses going to open market.



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    #9787
    combat14
    Registered Users Posts: 2,206 ✭✭✭combat14


    indo going all out on propety porn today - pushing houses outside dublin in rural ireland from 320 - 360k as the new normal for irish home buyers.... the never ending upwards cycle continues... what could possibly go wrong .....


    New homes teed up a short drive from Waterford city

    https://m.independent.ie/life/home-garden/new-homes/new-homes-teed-up-a-short-drive-from-waterford-city-41585706.html


    Macroom three-beds starting at €322,500


    https://m.independent.ie/life/home-garden/new-homes/macroom-three-beds-starting-at-322500-41585722.html




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    #9788
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974757#Comment_118974757

    Yes but again, this is an over simplification of reality to try and make a dramatic point. Implicitly people are trying to suggest that 66% of stuff is being snapped up by funds etc, it's not the reality. Self builds make up a big chunk of the properties that don't make it to market. These houses were never, ever intended to go to market, but if you exclude self builds it looks less dramatic so we can't do that.

    You also need to factor in the apartments for rental. Let's be honest here, the people shopping for a 3/4 bed semi-d are not going to suddenly buy a 2 bed apartment if these suddenly popped up on the market. Were these apartments not owned by the funds they'd be owned by other investors instead. In fact, you can go a step further and say if these weren't owned by the funds they just wouldn't exist at all.

    But again, if this is clarified, things look less dramatic, so we won't do that.



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    #9789
    Timing belt
    Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974709#Comment_118974709

    In order to resolve the housing crisis you need to address all users and not just FTB’s.

    if one off homes account for 25% of new houses then this will help the rental market (assuming that they were renting before building). With WFH it makes sense that this no would be higher than in the past and would mean that these people wouldn’t be competing with FTB’s in Dublin and freeing up rental properties.

    BTR apartments are also required along with social housing. If investment funds or councils don’t add to their stock it will only lead to more problems in the rental market.

    At the end of the day there are not enough new properties being built. If councils build they reduce the no of private properties being built…The only impact would be that they wouldn’t be outbidding FTB’s and pushing prices higher but would shrink the no of new properties coming to the market for FTB’s



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    #9790
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975473#Comment_118975473

    Councils building means a reduction in the private market supply, yes, and it means the council wouldn't be bidding (theoretically, if they were able to build sufficient numbers).

    But it means less supply for those in the private market which will also push prices up unless demand is dropped by more than supply is dropped, i.e. the council build more than they currently buy while minimizing the impact on private builds.

    We are limited by practical factors at this stage. Labour and materials. There is no magic bullet to solve this, someone is going to lose out.



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    #9791
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973089#Comment_118973089

    Well, I think this thread has hit a new low.

    Man would rather burn down a house that he lives in rather than sell to state and thinks children are better off in a war zone.

    And 6 likes??

    Maybe ye could head on to a new facist property thread...



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    #9792
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    Just looking around Rome

    www.idealista.it/en/immobile/21281760/

    60k for an apartment....


    Meanwhile

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/traditional-farmhouse-on-c-61-acres-24-7-ha-granite-outhouses-hollywood-wicklow/4578353

    1 million 60 thousand for derelict house in Wicklow...



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    #9793
    Bass Reeves
    Registered Users Posts: 18,502 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977202#Comment_118977202

    There is 61 acres of land with it. By the look of the land it's top class. In Ireland land average 10.5k/acre varying from 1kto 20k+. I expect that the land is making up 90%+ of the price paid.

    Buyer could be planning on reselling the house, derelict sheds and an acre.

    Slava Ukrainii



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    #9794
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977188#Comment_118977188

    Fascist? Sir, I believe in the free market, freedom of speech, limited power, personal responsibility and integrity and the right to private property. These are about as far from fascism as you can get. What is very close to fascism, however, is confiscation or the compulsory purchasing of private property by the state. I would ask you kindly not to call names.

    Anyways, we're not here to discuss that...



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    #9795
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974782#Comment_118974782

    The answer provided to a specific question could not have been more encompassing.

    Everyday we hear the Gov saying there going to build/provide 25k, 33k etc, people need to know what that means for them. If only a third make it to market then that is a fact they need to know.

    Where the stats get really murky is

    80% of social and affordable were sourced from the private sector, so the state build figure is miniscule

    That case with Davys stockbrokers is particularly shocking where through state activity the price of housing has doubled in 12 months. That's a triple whammy for housing affordability

    Reduced supply, massive inflation, loss of tax revenue as the property has moved from tax paying landlords to non tax paying.

    At some point we have to ask are the government helping or hindering the housing affordability issue and the answer has to be unaminous.

    To me its quiet clear who is being coy with the stats and disruptive in the market



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    #9796
    Villa05
    Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118973968#Comment_118973968

    As I understand it that highlighted clause has always been in the constitution.

    As renters trashing properties is undesirable so is owners trashing properties through dereliction.

    Action against both would be entirely progressive for a modern democratic nation



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    #9797
    timmyntc
    Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118975524#Comment_118975524

    Seeing as plenty of "private" builds dont actually make it to public sale, that is not necessarily true.

    The state could end up sapping building resources from apartment schemes instead of housing estates, and institutionals would lose out. Unlikely as they have deep pockets but its possible.



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    #9798
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977661#Comment_118977661

    And so we'll have less apartments to rent, which drives down supply in the rental market. Given that rentals are generally a lot more densely populated than owned properties, this represents a problem that will drive rents up.



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    #9799
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977347#Comment_118977347

    At the auction the highest bid on the land was 350k. It's on a hill, good for sheep or forestry. Definitely not top class.



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    #9800
    CorkRed93
    Registered Users Posts: 3,680 ✭✭✭CorkRed93


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118974767#Comment_118974767

    wow @ those macroom ones.



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    #9801
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977508#Comment_118977508

    Don't bother giving me a title, I'm not a monarchist.

    I believe in housing for all and not just the wealthy elite. I believe in helping others when they're in need and especially the victims of Russian warfare.

    I made my point and hopefully there will be less despicable bile being spewed going forward.



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    #9802
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977508#Comment_118977508

    ....theres actually no such thing as a free market, there never has been, all markets require state existence and interactions, in order to exist, its a symbiotic relationship, again, it always has been. arguments of 'personal responsibility' is also moot, as an environment of absolute equality would be required, in order for all citizens needs to be met, and this is probably impossible to achieve, so.....

    funnily enough, you ll actually find our pursuit of such beliefs has lead to a rapid confiscation of once publicly owned assets such as property and land etc, which has lead to a higher concentration of ownership of such once publicly owned assets, and subsequent wealth extraction from such assets....



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    #9803
    RichardAnd
    Registered Users Posts: 3,653 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977874#Comment_118977874

    I'm sure what you mean by giving you a title, and I'm at a total loss by what you mean by "I'm not a monarchist."

    I too have no wish to see housing become the purview of the wealthy, with the rest of us consigned to life-long renting. Further, I have no issues with helping any genuine refugees displayed by circumstance beyond their control. We may may, however, disagree on the means, but that is all well and good as we are here to share ideas, discuss and debate.

    I will, however, say that you are in an open forum where ideas are free to be shared openly. If you hear things that you do not like, that is to be expected. You cannot, however, disregard such things as "despicable bile". We are in a bad position as a country, and one of the reasons for this is debate cannot be had without name calling.



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    #9804
    L1011
    Registered Users Posts: 68,664 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    This isn't an open forum - its one where everyone has repeatedly been told to stop posting general politics and general economics stuff.



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    #9805
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118977202#Comment_118977202

    Your not comparing like for like here. Have a look at comparisons of area size and population density and it will make more sense as to why areas in and around Dublin are more expensive.


    http://comparecities.org/en/compare/Dublin-Rome



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    #9806
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118978051#Comment_118978051

    I'm not but I was astonished that you can buy an apartment in Rome for 60k.



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    #9807
    growleaves
    Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118978644#Comment_118978644

    There are great arbitrage opportunities for anyone who can transplant a business or virtual job to another European country, and has a big deposit already saved.



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    #9808
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118978644#Comment_118978644

    Yeah me too but once again price is a product of supply and demand in Ireland we have less supply and more demand which is why we have the price differential



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    #9809
    mcsean2163
    Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118979109#Comment_118979109

    Yep, I just think I was believing the narrative that it's the same everywhere. Clearly not in Italy.



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    #9810
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118979109#Comment_118979109

    ...this is not entirely true, theres a multitude of causations of prices in property markets, one of the main causes is the increase in the money supply to the market, particularly the credit supply, inflation, particularly the price of materials etc etc, the supply and demand understanding is an extreme simplification of the matter....



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    #9811
    fliball123
    Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118979414#Comment_118979414

    Supply of credit would feed into demand as in if you cant get the credit then you cant buy which means less demand for something. All factors lead into either supply or demand. If someone cant afford something they are hardly in the pool that would be "of in demand" of something. It is simple.



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