Russia - threadbanned users in OP

Someone more knowledgeable on these matters may comment, but I would imagine mothballed munitions would have a best by date, and cold war era hardware unless it's regularly serviced may be mostly junk now.

It's very hard to say what might be going on frankly.

We also have to remember there are at least two additional factions in play when thinking about Transnistria: the Transnistrian separatists and Moldovan nationalists. There could also be anti-Russian elements within the separatists too.

And this morning there are reports of an "attack" at a military base just 2km from the Ukrainian border.

They have been slowly gaining ground since they began their "2nd phase" unfortunately. How long they can sustain the advance will be the question; but the Sievierodonetsk area in particular is starting to look bad.

But how long can the Russians endure the attrition? Attack is more costly than defense.

This is the most comprehensive analysis of the whole situation I've read to date. Long, but well worth it

A snippet:

"In the early hours of 24 February, Ukrainian air-defence radar began to experience severe jamming across all frequency bands.6 Radar further inside Ukraine meanwhile began to be harassed by E95M Target UAVs simulating Russian aircraft.7 When the air defences lit up to engage, they came under attack. ‘We thought we were going to be denied the entire electromagnetic spectrum around Kyiv’, noted a Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) specialist.8 The initial wave of cruise and ballistic missile strikes and electronic attacks caused enough disruption for an airborne raid to penetrate the Ukrainian defences north of the capital and land at Hostomel airfield, where Russian paratroopers hoped to establish an airhead to rapidly move forces into Kyiv."

...

"The VDV – Russia’s airborne forces – spearheaded the invasion. In December, specialist units of the VDV had wargamed out their role in the repression of Ukrainian civil society alongside the 9th Directorate of the Fifth Service of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).9 The VDV assault units received the plan three days before the invasion and started excitedly talking in anticipation of their daring operation. VDV commanders started discussing their primary objective at Hostomel in clear. When they landed, therefore, they were met with Ukrainian artillery and a coordinated counterattack, quickly being driven from the airport. Meanwhile, to the north, Ukrainian units fought a delaying action with considerable success. The Russian motor rifle and Rosgvardia troops had received their orders less than 24 hours before the invasion. As a consequence, they did not fight a methodical campaign of breakthrough and exploitation by successive echelons as their doctrine dictated, nor were they supported by sufficient artillery as is considered essential. Instead, they were pushed forwards along two main resupply routes (MSRs) towards distant objectives without reconnaissance or screening to their flanks.10 The Rosgvardia, intended to provide rear-area security,11 sometimes ended up advancing ahead of combat units.12 The speed of some armoured units allowed them to drive into Kyiv’s suburbs only 48 hours into the war, but, as they were miles ahead of the main body of Russian ground forces, all this achieved was their isolation and destruction.13 With little opportunity to prepare, psychologically or practically, many Russian units broke when they met serious resistance. "

If Russia is struggling this badly to make inroads this close to their own border then the situation is only going to get worse every km they push forth. Add in the factor of the now agreed additional weapons from NATO and any gains they may get will be short lived and costly.

On another note it appears to me that Scholz pulled a fast one with his latest weapons announcement. Much fanfare about the Gephard anti aircraft units only for them to be pulled on a technicality by Switzerland. Call me cynical but this looks like a pre planned play with a bit of hand wringing thrown in. Sorry guys, we tried but our hands are tied.

Yes: they basically picked the least valuable of the "heavy weapons" Ukraine asked for and agreed to send those. And to be clear they're not giving them to Ukraine they're simply not blocking the company which currently owns them from selling them to Ukraine.

I've seen several posts from people claiming to be from the Bundeswehr saying how difficult the Gepards are to operate and that the training is going to be a complete nightmare.

We also have no idea how many are available immediately versus how long it will take to make most or all of them operational.

30,000 women serving I believe. Ukrainian Women Play Crucial Roles in the War Against Russia | Time

Just with regards to the point of "downplaying" the level of Russian screw-ups, I think that's actually a healthy counterpoint to some of the pro-Ukraine triumphalism (for lack of a better term) that I've been seeing more and more over the next week. Granted, it currently doesn't look too good for Russia, but that doesn't mean that the Russian Army should be taken lightly. If they do manage to hit their stride, they could still swing this war. Overconfidence has lost more battles than an overabundance of caution.

The answer is none because the Swiss are blocking them completely

I would imagine if Ukraine has direct involvement in those explosions within the Russian border it will have been via drone attack.

Considering there has been a war in effect in Eastern Ukraine since 2014 it's entirely logical to assume that Kyiv will have earmarked strategic sites in advance of further Russia moves. If there is any intelligence assets on the ground within Russia I'd imagine it's more in a spotting and observation role that can be hard to detect.

Stuff mysteriously blowing up inexplicably, is exactly what I would expect to be the sort of outcome if the UK were using it's Taranis AI facilitated stealth drone. While I'd say the chance of the UK actually using it seem small, one of the very reasons for it's development and existence is to engage in deniable military action in a high threat theatre. This is historically and situationaly, a perfect match for it's raison d'etre.

There is no point developing such a thing and not using it when a matching situation arises. If I possessed such a system, I'd have taken this perfect opportunity to field test it by using it for recon in Ukraine. If it had remained undetected and performed to, spec, I'd up the ante and try it out in Russian airspace. If it still remained undetected, I'd simulate a complete offensive mission profile on a valid potential target, as that necessitates opening weapons bay doors briefly, potentially increasing the chance of detection.

If it still remained undetected after several weeks of such testing, I might consider actual offensive use to carry almost no risk while potentially being critically useful in terms of my absolute position of considering a Russian victory as intolerable.

Doubtful, as I believe they were scheduled to receive training on the French and US weapons, which is taking place at the moment. Should't be much longer, though.