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Share Picks 2022

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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    I think when you are buying shares, you have to ask yourself what can go wrong, as much as what can go right. When you do this, you become mindful of what a company is actually worth. If prices fall below what a company is worth, then it makes sense to buy more at the lower price. When you are buying just off a price curve, panic can really set in, when prices fall.

    Way too many buying shares, especially with online access to do so, and no idea whatsoever what a company is actually worth in monetary terms.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Patsy we know that you're a value investor but you have to accept that there are other ways to invest. I haven't sold one share in the past 8 months now, and don't plan on selling. If I was forever buying and selling based on when a company is under/over valued, that's a lot of work.

    Find good companies, DCA into the shares, hold for the long term. The multiple/worth will go up and down plenty over that period.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,140 ✭✭✭ocallagh


    How do you determine what a company is worth?

    Product, IP, Management Team, Dynamic Capability/Potential, Competition, Moat, Market Size/Conditions/Trends. I think a lot of this gets overlooked, and too many get fixated on revenue, earnings and share price. I'm not suggesting you do, but it is a mistake I made early on for sure.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,924 ✭✭✭Andrea B.


    Twitter should be fun on opening today. Apparently decision expected today wrt Musk.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    It's an odd one isn't it, currently about $51, offer price is $54. So a yes and shareholders get $54, a no they could be down to the $30's. Not much upside from here really



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands




  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    I bought Twitter at different stages, lowest at $26.45 and highest at $44.35. Musk knows he's getting a bargain at that price.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    As for Intrinsic Value. watch this video where Buffett explains the concept;


    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,924 ✭✭✭Andrea B.


    I am a bit more risk averse so will not dabble here, but I suspect a much higher than $54, in short term, if they accept.

    Investors will interpret value based solely on Musk's interest and perceived Midas touch.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,592 ✭✭✭Treppen


    It'll go same way as trendy IPOs. Rocket then dump.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,924 ✭✭✭Andrea B.




  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    But we all know we're getting $54.20 per share once the deal goes through, so there's no chance it would have gone higher today.


    Anyway, looks like deal done now. I'm going to try to sell up in the next hour if they open trading and it gets close to $54. Alternative is that this thing could take months to close and your money is just locked at $54



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    How does it work now? Shares finished a fair bit down from $54.2. DeGiro's highest today was 52.29. Surely the price is set in stone now.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    You'd expect the shares to be auto sold for cash @54.20



  • Registered Users Posts: 114 ✭✭AnF Chuckie egg


    Share price will never be at 54.20 it will always carry a risk that the deal doesn't happen so basically you have a choice of waiting for the deal and getting the full price or cash out now but at a lower price to reflect the risk and the wait



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Yeah, it'll always trade about 5% below the asking price now until close. If the financing falls through or regulators don't allow it or whatever, the deal could still collapse so we won't get $54.20 until it closes. I had the same problem with FitBit shares a few years ago when they were bought out. Price was agreed at $7.35 but it was about $6.90 for most of the year while regulators go through their approvals.

    Best thing for us now is for it to be a quick sale. I'd be tempted to take the cash if it goes towards $52.50/53 in the next few days though, and use the cash elsewhere



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    It's the largest share of my portfolio, about 20% so I might just sit it out. Funny, but I was about to sell it all off before Musk shown interest.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Any google bagholders? 😲



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    bought three today near the lows , its still relative value at the money i bought ,growth stocks are unable to find a bottom right now , exception being Microsoft which is a recession proof juggernaut , its a stronger company than Apple in my opinion , quarter after quarter of great results and good outlook



  • Registered Users Posts: 780 ✭✭✭jams100


    Bagholders??? They grew revenue 23% yoy. $70B buyback, cloud growth of 44% etc. These mega caps are just behemoths!

    Typical retail investor reaction, reading way too much into 1 quarters earnings.

    I'm sure in 5 years time that people will regret buying alphabet at current or even there peak $3k price



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    I think the poster probably knows that, tech is in a bear market however so pressure is to downside



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I was only joking. Can't be a bagholder with a mega company like Google. Just that it's down about 22% from it's high.

    And on your 5 year comment. I'm not so sure. I think we could be in for a sustained bear market. Took 6 years after 2007 peak to reach a new peak.



  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    Bought a google share Monday. Balls but bought to hold long term. When it was near 3k I was kicking myself not having more so cant complain too much on pull back



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    Google (Alphabet) is the most owned stock with the large equity fund managers. None of them, by the way own Tesla.

    It's Debt/Equity ratio is 0.05, Free Cash Flow per share was $96 at end of 2021. It's return on invested capital was 28%. It's Net Income was $76B for 2021, of which $50B went back into share buybacks ........ Insane figures. It basically doesn't know what to do with the huge money it's generating.

    Question is, how much is it really worth?

    DATAROMA Superinvestor Ownership

    Apple by comparison, has a Debt/Equity ratio of 1.97.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 540 ✭✭✭theboringfox


    I always wonder too is regulatory impact overdone as threat. I think regulation helps big tech too as very hard for competitors to resource up for compliance. Also the threat of being broken up. Again I think some companies might be worth more broken up



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭massdebater


    You can definitely be a bag holder with a mega company, plenty have fallen over the years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,752 ✭✭✭✭patsy_mccabe


    Yep, have a look at GE share price over the years. Under Jack Welsh GE was the shining light of US business for years. It hit a high of $476 in 2000. Now trading at a paltry $80.

    'When I was a boy we were serfs, slave minded. Anyone who came along and lifted us out of that belittling, I looked on them as Gods.' - Dan Breen



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    alphabet could easily drop to $1800 if we have a rough summer , i wont be buying anymore until we drop to $2000 or a little above , im supremely confident about the stock long term , another pick for me once it gets near $100 is Disney , its been a rotten stock to own for several years bar a few short term pops but is a goldmine which will eventually get repriced



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,395 ✭✭✭Shedite27


    Nasdaq futures were -700 (about -5%) going to bed last night, back to +100 (+.8%) this morning. Sounds like looking through the numbers it's not as bad as expected. Google results were fine apart from advertising revenue. A lot of analysts think the first sign of companies struggling will be cutting advertising revenue, hence Googles advertising revenue is a canary in the coalmine. So while their results may be seen as a sign of a bigger problem, the impact on google isn't huge.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,929 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    BoI down 10%

    I've been nibbling at a few commodity stocks mostly Aussie miners but I think I'll stop for now and stay mostly cash, it is looking grim out there. Can't believe crypto is holding up so well touch wood.



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