Recession predictions

I don't think anyone is suggesting that inflation is only down to supply chain issues. The biggest drivers of inflation at the moment are energy prices along with the expectation of inflation.

Personally I think that during the pandemic customers spending habits changed because they were unable to spend on services and instead spent on goods and the weighting in the CPI has not taken this into account leading to big headline figures of CPI which in turn have businesses increasing prices to get ahead of where they expect inflation to go and in turn generating more inflation.

Those in the know (e.g. Alasdair MacLeod) predict a Russian-Chinese plan to gold-baxk a basket of currencies. Around now. Which would 1. Slowly kill off the dollar (2/3 of dollars are outside of the US currently) and 2. make any proposed sanctions moot, particularly SWIFT membership.

Worth following zerohedge and KingworldNews.

im a gold and silver bug. So I'm biased. Alasdair could be accused of being also, as he advises Goldmoney.com.

It's plain to see, however.

Just coming out of a worldwide lock down severely impacting businesses. Major increases in almost everything. Especially energy/cars/houses/services. Twould be easier to list what hasn't risen , if you could think of some? War in Europe. 10 million + refugees fleeing west. European food security threatened (if only slightly..cause europe does produce alot)

(Only a slight drop in the markets) And yet no sign of a recession. What gives? Tis bewildering.

very possible alright, so what we do now, or dont do now matters, big time, start borrowing, and quickly! the ecb knows that increasing rates now would simply help to induce a downturn, so its remaining on the fence, and thank god, as our current inflationary pressures have little or nothing to do with the money supply, and increasing the price of it, the rate, wont solve the causes, i.e. supply and energy markets!

we need full and widescale eu support for a rapid expansion of the public money supply, i.e. public debt, to limit the damage of a downturn, but this needs to be highly focused investment, and not towards the norm of inflating asset prices, qe etc!

unfortunately critical markets dont seem to be settling at all, with uncertainties growing in food and energy markets, this potentially could get very scary very quickly!!

Isn't a recession by definition, 2+ quarters of GDP decline?

So earliest we would see it is end of Q2, although given the leprechaun economics wrt Irish GDP, we likely could still be posting 'growth' for a while yet

The idea that "its the economy stupid" the rising tide lifts all boats has long proven to be a fallacy as most people nowadays would admit that in spite of record GDP metrics and all kinds of economic records broken that their quality of life in Ireland has not improved.

However recessions are fundamentally an economic metric not a quality of life metric, so until we see 2 consecutive quarter dips in GDP* we arent in recession

*GDP or modified GNI in our case since our GDP is so far detached from reality

We've already borrowed 240bn+ euro. How much more needs to be borrowed? When do we start to see the supposed outcomes of your theory from the borrowing to date?

I am going to continue asking you this question until you answer it.

Recession, as defined by those metrics, is a cutesy Keynesian load of cobblers. Valid within that frame but ultimately not a valid reflection of reality at all.

We are currently in a melt-up I would say. On our way to stagflation. Nominal wages will rise, possibly quite radically, but still not enough to outpace CPI and certainly not enough to outpace inflation.

Price inflation (price increases) are almost purely the result of currency creation, particularly where it has been helicopter money and has shores up consumer spending and pent-up savings i.e delayed spending which has been expressed in house prices (and other assets) overtopping.

Inflation was built into the Euro. The 2% target of ECB and FED ties in with the purposeful 2% destruction per annum of purchasing power. That's how they rock n roll.

At least in the ECB's case until the smorgasboard avalanche of helicopter money that came with the pandemic. 2002-2020, the euro lost 40% of its purchasing power. How much more, then, across 2019-2022?

Did the ECB also inject megafunds in Q3 2019 at the time of the interbank REPO crisis? Or was it just the FED?

Anyway, regardless of the strict definition of a recession, if we're not in one already, we will be within another quarter, even if GDP or GNI rise due to inflation (currency growth) and nominally say otherwise.

Nominal numbers don't go too far at the shops.

Edit: Don't mind me. Ramblings of a committed long haul silver and gold bug.

Very interested in the views on this thread. A number of quality posters.