NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

You might be right but that's not what I'm saying. My point is that these polls are being used to legitimise the analysts personal biases. Blanch see's them as proof Sinn Fein are bigots, you see them as proof that Unionists are. They prove neither.

Or, more likely both. but maybe that's just my own bias.

My point is that both are bigots - SF and TUV. I am applying the conclusion to both sides.

It is even more than that, a powerful accusation of those who supported terrorism during the Troubles and who continue to explain and excuse it. As the promoter of her post on these boards, do you accept that "neither land nor nationhood is a legitimate reason for murder"?

Do you also accept that "thousands of people were needlessly murdered in the Troubles and thousands of families were thrust into unimaginable pain for NOTHING."?

If you don't, you are like the coward hiding behind an unfinished revolution and exploiting Lyra McKee sister's words for political gain.

Watching the BBC NI debate, quite entertaining! Donaldson getting a lot of time but some of his positions are laughable. Watching O’Neill, Jaysus she looks shifty. Beattie not getting much of a look in. Eastwood and Long look the most sensible & trustworthy of the lot.

If a party leader is important, how can anyone look at Michelle O’Neill and see her eyes and vote for that insincerity. Donaldson getting a roasting but doesn’t give a toss, water off a 🦆 back, protocol, protocol, protocol. God help the poor voters of NI. What did they do to deserve the likes of them pair.

For anyone looking at the debate, that was a fair comment in real time. And a perfectly natural one. Of course, fat people can discuss the health services. I'm sure Naomi is quite happy to discuss them, but the irony still exists. If you had looked up this thread earlier, you'll see that I'd hope that Alliance get a great vote and that she does well.

As for the debate itself, first time as a southern voter I've seen all five leaders of the main parties up there lined up side by side. And it was interesting to see them in the face, side by side. Voters use their gut instincts as well and party leaders are important. Here is my synopsis which is feck all use since it's not our vote:

Donaldson got most airtime, was full of bluster and conviction but only those most blindly loyal could possibly not see through the DUP charade of trying to disassociate themselves from Brexit and the protocol etc. If there was a fault in the others, it was that they did not nail him to floor on it, despite trying. He had some stooge in the audience who managed to get his rambling spake in twice.

O'Neill hung back a fair bit, my main issue with her as a leader is her eyes and demeanor, contemptuous at times. Of all of them she's the one I'd trust least as a person. Compare that to Mary Lou who at least has an open and frank demeanor.

Beattie, didn't hear too much from him except towards end. Seemed to offer a more reasonable type of way forward.

Eastwood, earnest and honest. A man I could trust. Was the main one to repeatedly challenge Donaldson as to whether he'd form a government.

Long, didn't hear too much from her but clearly represents a more moderate NI citizen. A trustworthy person. Could do with more charisma as a leader.

Who would I vote for if in NI? Alliance/ SDLP/ UUP. Wouldn't give either of the others the steam of my piss.

I can't recall exactly what she said but it'd be meaningless anyway, something about learning from Brexit I think. You couldn't believe a word out of her mouth in matters relating to border polls.

We all know that Irish unity is the raison d'etre of Sinn Féin and as Beattie pointed out, they are quite entitled to have that priority.

So regardless of what Michelle would be saying, we can be 100% certain that a border poll will be high on the agenda if SF are to power share in Stormont and particularly as the largest party. And likewise if they get their boots under the table down here in the Republic.

I have no doubt but that the back room people and strategists behind SF look at every policy they devise and put it through the filter - will this further Irish unity, border poll etc etc.

poor mr hume would be turning in his grave

It does seem hard to call insofar as it remains to be seen if the DUP actually loses the kind of ground that commentary would suggest they have, or if the old Stop Sinn Fein mantra will win out. A big factor in that, to me anyway, rests on whether any electoral defection from the DUP goes towards the extremes of the DUP or towards Alliance (or UUP). You'd imagine that votes going to the TUV will invariably funnel second pref votes etc to the DUP but for those who go Alliance it might not be as clear cut.

I read a few days back that North Down, with its large proportion of moderate liberal Unionists, has the worst turnout percentage of all the constituencies (Ferm / Sth Tyrone being highest). So there's a possible indication there that moderate Unionists from across NI -- many of them young people working in Great Britain or attending universities there -- will demonstrate their apathy towards the current Unionist offering by just not bothering to vote. That's better for the Unionists than seeing them taken into the arms of the Let's-All-Just-Hold-Hands-And-Go-With-The-Flow Party (aka Alliance) where feelings toward the border poll bogeyman are a little less Never Never Never and a little more Maybe Maybe Maybe.

SF are going to have a very strong election and if this one doesn't bring out a strong nationalist showing in general, then nationalism has a lot of soul searching to do as regards the vision it's setting out. But the future of Unionism is the big story here and i genuinely think this election is the barometer for where Unionism is going for the next 10 years. A strong showing for the DUP will suggest that very little is going to change for a time to come in the northern political stalemate, while a flow towards the even more extreme edge of Unionism will be very concerning indeed. Conversely, a Unionist defection towards the UUP or Alliance might suggest a new era of less intransigent Unionism is dawning and renewed efforts of moving the North forward can accelerate.

NI has exceptionally poor polling data - local firms with poor methodology, "Shy" everyone etc so there's nothing much for anyone to work from.