Russia - threadbanned users in OP

I can relate. My daughter has no interest in current affairs*, but she also keeps her thoughts to herself, so when she expresses a concern like that, we know it's something that's really worrying her. Her ability to keep her own counsel and stand up to questioning, combined with a relentless ability to ferret out information herself has led us to conclude that she'd be a natural as a secret service analyst. 😁 I had know idea she was so aware of the Ukraine situation, apart from me telling her to expect some new classmates in September. She must have locked on to something that filtered through.

*Neither of them is a chip off either parental block that way, but I sometimes think they may have right idea. Maybe life is nicer like that.

It's a fallacy that's pushed by the disingenuous and consumed by ignorant to say that NATO expands into anywhere. I could understand it being said on social media, which is the intellectual wild west, but when politicians start saying it - people who should be held to a slightly higher standard - that's when it gets annoying.

If Russia worked to become the kind of country that other countries want to follow, it would have plenty of buffer zone, but it hasn't so it doesn't.

The same trope is often levelled at the EU, that it somehow engages in aggressive expansion in order to become a supposed EU super state. It's the same crowd pushing the narrative - anti-NATO, anti-EU, anti-Zelensky, anti-Biden, pro-Trump, pro-Brexit, pro-Putin.

The Pope is an imbecile, but he's keeping with tradition in that respect.

Yesterday I killed the neighbours pets and left them on the front porch, I smashed in every window and got a ladder and ripped off a lot of slates, cut through the felt and then stomped on the plasterboard and caved in their ceiling. I did unspeakable things to their children.

That will teach them to enquire about joining neighbourhood watch when I warned them not to.

Do you honestly believe that the Kremlin Factory of Lies need's help in their productions???? What they are coming out with ( 500 Mtr tsunamis...) You would be hard put to think up more fantastic tales. You have to give them 110% marks for creativity and imagination. And they keep on doing it....WOW, that's what I call Olympic / Academy Awards class talent.

But surely the Russian administration can see that too?

Yet they're not making any attempts at a diplomatic resolution? Rather they just seem to be ploughing ahead as if things are fine domestically.

So either things are going to be fine or they know they'll be rescued by a 3rd party when things become crippling.

Oh dear, he's confirmed it.

It seems they’re in favour of being in the EU for the money, the funds (of which they are usually one of the largest benefactors), the access to the market and the freedom of movement but that’s where the enthusiasm ends. They’ve little interest in adopting or accepting EU values - notably democratic ones, which are a fundamental part of what and why the EU and the European institutions were created and they hugely support a political party that seeks to basically destroy the EU, and it would seem, sides with Russia, who are quite literally threatening to nuke EU member states.

It doesn’t work like that! They’re more than welcome to leave! They can sort out their domestic politics themselves. It’s not an EU problem.

It’s basically colonialism and imperialism in a modern context. This is exactly how 19th and early 20th century European powers behaved.

You’re looking at a country that’s effectively in a time warp. It might have electricity, nuclear power and access to the internet but politically it’s in about 1875.

It’s barely even been a democracy for very long and seems to think it’s normal to jail, poison and kill anyone who disagrees or challenges the autocracy. That’s what they’ve always done. It’s just been rebranded - tzars and their courts were just replaced with communist era equivalents, then with an autocratic presidency and a court of oligarchs … it’s not political system anyone who’s grown up in a democracy would recognise. It has institutions that have titles that look vaguely familiar, but that’s where the similarity ends.

They see Ukraine (and other places) as theirs and think they’re just going to take them. I don’t really see how you can deal with that other than to contain them. It’s basically just going to morph into another phase of the Cold War.

I think the broader west has been naive about the notion that all countries naturally tend towards democracy and open, liberal societies. They simply don’t. That’s a largely a product of the European enlightenment era thinking and it doesn’t apply everywhere. Some countries will continue to tend towards king like leadership systems and you can see that clearly in Russia and quite a few other places where that’s always been the political culture. They seek a “good king” or a “powerful king” not a representative democracy.

The real problems between Russia and Ukraine began when the Ukrainian parliament overwhelmingly voted on a deal that would allow greater economic cooperation between Ukraine and the EU, but which was then kiboshed by the Ukrainian president of the time. I don't think it's venturing too far into crazy conspiracy land to think the then-president was pressured into the U-turn by mother Russia.

It's boneheaded, short-term thinking by Russia, the way they're trying to assert influence in the world. Long-term, it will lead to the loss of all CIS states and the country will become ever more of a Chinese vassal.

Rural Russia may well survive self sufficiency ( after all, they have plenty of experience) without any of the frills, but in the Cities? Remember, Communism was to be the beginning and end of self sufficiency and independence from the outside world, and see how that went. The fact is that we live in an interdependent global world, and that very inter- dependance is what gives us the most f the benefits we enjoy today. ( and of course, it also means that when we become over dependent on other Country's ( China, and currently Russian Oil and Gaz) it needs to be addressed.

I think the trigger event was the Maidan revoultion in 2014 and the chasing out of Putin's glove puppet.

I'm sure they can see it. One thing to bear in mind though is that everyone near the apex of the Russian power vertical (i.e. Putin and his cronies) are multi-billionaires and are thus somewhat insulated from the impacts of sanctions. And, as can be seen from the deployment of troops, they don't care what happens to the average Russian.

There is no third party who will resolve this in Russia's favour, including China. China will do what is in China's long-term interest.

Even if Russia win militarily (still very much a prospect when you consider the relative strength of the two sides, despite the much-needed Western aid), they will lose in every other way. Sanctions remain, pariah status remains, isolation and decline is their future.

Even if there is a negotiated settlement, Russia loses. They lose power of all flavours.

The only possible scenario I can see that is not long-term awful for Russia is if Putin somehow gets removed and a new, somewhat democratic and Western-friendly, regime takes over. I'm not holding my breath waiting for that and would make it a less than 1% chance.