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April 2022 Boards weather forecast contest

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    #32
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 727 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Phoenix Park 18.6 yesterday.



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    #33
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,969 ✭✭✭appledrop


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/118933968#Comment_118933968

    I was at the Zoo yesterday and I'm not surprised it reached that temperature, it was lovely and mild.



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    #34
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Just a comment on our bonus question and the forecast for tomorrow. Mullingar 13.1°C and 15.2mm.



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    #35
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Odd situation, if there is 5.4 mm or less, I would finish last, if there is 7.2 then I would be tied for first. If it was anyone else I would probably be lenient and score off a "skewed" distribution curve but I didn't say that in the rules so will have to hope we reach 7.2.



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    #36
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    To prepare for the bonus scoring, here are the forecasts re-arranged into temperature order ... note that the table somehow missed the correct values for NormaL which were in my original post, so those don't match the table but are the correct values. I have also staggered the rainfall forecasts to make them easier to group.

    Joe Public ______________18.1 _ 0.0

    MrSkinner ______________17.0 ___ 0.6

    Kindred Spirit ___________17.0 __ 0.1

    waterways _____________ 17.0 _ 0.0

    Pauldry _______________ 16.5 _ 0.0

    Danno ________________ 16.3 __ 0.1

    Sunflower3 ____________ 16.2 _ 0.0

    200motels _____________ 15.3 _____ 2.9

    Gonzo _________________15.2 _____ 2.1

    Dacogawa ______________15.1 __ 0.5

    Mr stonewall ___________ 15.1 _ 0.0


    Con Sensus ____________ 15.0 ____ 1.5


    sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 0.0

    Jpmarn _______________ 14.8 ___ 0.5

    Dasa29 _______________ 14.5 _____ 2.5

    Appledrop _____________ 14.4 __ 0.2

    Artane2002 ____________14.3 ___ 1.3

    DOCARCH _____________ 14.2 __ 0.2

    adam240610 ___________14.1 _ 0.0


    NormaL _______________ 13.8 _____ 2.2


    Tae laidir _______________13.5 ______ 3.5

    Bsal __________________ 12.5 __ 0.1

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 12.3 _________ 10.9

    john mac _______________ 9.8 ____ 1.6



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    #37
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Plenty of rain in Mullingar tomorrow. My phone says 15 to 20mm

    Actually yr.no predicts 30mm for Mullingar. Eek? Mercy!



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    #38
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Adding up the hourly amounts there has already been 8 mm or more. (as of 0700h). So that's more or less settled. Any more now will not affect contest scoring.



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    #39
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭pauldry


    12.6mm in Mullingar so far if my .Calculations are correct. 14 hours left!



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    #40
    Jpmarn
    Registered Users Posts: 1,482 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    It looks like M. T. is more or less nailing it in today’s forecast. So far I have counted about 14mm rain at Mullingar at the time of posting. Temperature around 11° or 12°C so far.



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    #41
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭pauldry


    22mm of rain in Mullingar now n didn't get much above 12c



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    #42
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Scoring for the bonus question (max temp and rainfall at Mullingar on 17th)

    outcome _ 12.0, 19.9 mm rain

    I scored this between 1 and 6 points in each category with an attempt made to group the forecasts rather than sticking to any formula for equal numbers at each scoring position. (superbonus points are built into this scoring and two forecasts received some)


    FORECASTER ___ fcsts ____ Temp pts _Prc pts _TOTAL

    Joe Public _______18.1 _ 0.0 __ 1 ___ 1 _____ 2

    MrSkinner ______ 17.0 _ 0.6 __ 2 ___ 3 _____ 5

    Kindred Spirit ___ 17.0 _ 0.1 __ 2 ___ 2 _____ 4

    waterways ______17.0 _ 0.0 __ 2 ___ 1 _____ 3

    Pauldry ________ 16.5 _ 0.0 __ 3 ___ 1 _____ 4

    Danno _________ 16.3 _ 0.1 __ 3 ___ 2 _____ 5

    Sunflower3 _____ 16.2 _ 0.0 __ 3 ___ 1 _____ 4

    200motels ______ 15.3 _ 2.9 __ 4 ___ 5 _____ 9

    Gonzo __________15.2 _ 2.1 __ 4 ___ 4 _____ 8

    Dacogawa ______ 15.1 _ 0.5 __ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

    Mr stonewall ____ 15.1 _ 0.0 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 5


    Con Sensus _____ 15.0 _ 1.5 __ 4 ___ 4 _____ 8


    sryanbruen _____ 14.9 _ 0.0 __ 4 ___ 1 _____ 5

    Jpmarn ________ 14.8 _ 0.5 __ 4 ___ 3 _____ 7

    Dasa29 ________ 14.5 _ 2.5 __ 5 ___ 5 ____ 10

    Appledrop ______ 14.4 _ 0.2 __ 5 ___ 2 _____ 7

    Artane2002 _____14.3 _ 1.3 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9

    DOCARCH ______ 14.2 _ 0.2 __ 5 ___ 2 _____ 7

    adam240610 ____14.1 _ 0.0 __ 5 ___ 1 _____ 6


    NormaL ________ 13.8 _ 2.2 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9


    Tae laidir ________13.5 _ 3.5 __ 6 ___ 5 ____ 11

    Bsal ___________ 12.5 _ 0.1 __ 6 ___ 2 _____ 8

    M.T. Cranium ____ 12.3 _10.9__ 6 ___ 6 ____ 12

    john mac ________ 9.8 _ 1.6 __ 5 ___ 4 _____ 9



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    #43
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,084 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Got 4 points. Personally think I should have got 2. I said zero rain and my temperature miles out too.

    Well done MTC. Your long range forecasting beats us all!



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    #44
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Well I got lucky with that one, would not try to claim there's any secret methodology behind that, otherwise it would happen more often at that time range as for example St Patrick's Day where I was miles out. Those who went warm and dry were just unlucky on the timing, the Saturday weather would have been pretty good for your forecasts.



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    #45
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After three weeks ...

    IMT on 8.1 with third week average 9.3 (+0.3 relative to normal for the interval).

    MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6

    PRC is now on 99% of normal with the third week 116% of normal.

    SUN now at 98% with the third week 111% of normal (664/600).

    BONUS scored above.



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    #46
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If we don't get a higher max, minimum progression will be needed for scoring and good news, my low forecast (18.9) is one point outside of the range where that boost is cut in half, so you'll have the full boost. Not much rainfall is predicted now to the end of the month so the outcome there is likely to be around 75-80%. Probably enough sunshine to allow the outcome to creep up above 100% perhaps 105% will be the end point there. IMT has some chance of going down slightly with the mean for the last nine days around 7 C, that would only bring it down a couple of tenths (the 8.1 is actually 8.14). If I could find some extra rainfall in this dry easterly, my score would perhaps be quite good, but I am going to take a hit on PRC from the current guidance.



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    #47
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After four weeks ...

    IMT on 8.6 (fourth week average 9.6 is 0.1 above normal). This likely to finish around 8.6 now.

    MAX and MIN remain 18.6 and -4.6. Checked today's hourlies and don't see anything likely to change MAX.

    PRC has fallen off to 75% with the fourth week very dry (1% of normal, thanks to Cork at 8%). Will finish around 75%.

    SUN at 111% with the fourth week quite bright at 148% (887/600). Will finish around 110%.

    Will post some preliminary scoring on Sunday 1st, but we will need to wait to Tuesday 3rd for confirmation of some data.



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    #48
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Probably enough rainfall on 30th to keep the PRC around 85%, rather than dropping to 75%. Checked 29th temps and no new MAX, nowhere that close today either. Will post some preliminary numbers and scoring tomorrow evening perhaps. Just realizing that Monday is a bank holiday which means Wed 4th for the monthly summary now.



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    #49
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Estimated or confirmed values:

    IMT _ 8.6 .. MAX 18.6 .. MIN -4.6 .. PRC 085 .. SUN 110 .. BONUS scored above

    Will post some preliminary scoring based on these later today. IIGATI

    (bonus for decoding IIGATI)



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    #50
    mrskinner
    Registered Users Posts: 392 ✭✭mrskinner


    IIGATI= if I get a time interval?



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    #51
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    More or less, "if I get around to it." So I did ...


    Preliminary scoring for April 2022


    Scoring will be shown in order when these are confirmed or adjusted (4th May).


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus _ TOTALS


    Tae laidir _______________22 _ 05*_ 19 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 11 ____ 65

    Artane2002 ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 74

    Danno _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 82

    MrSkinner ______________25 _ 10*_ 19 _ 13 _ 10 ___ 05 ____ 82

    DOCARCH ______________25 _ 18*_ 05 _ 13 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

    john mac ______________ 24 _ 01*_ 05 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 54

    Joe Public ______________24 _ 05*_ 19 _ 06 _ 08 ___ 02 ____ 64

    Kindred Spirit ___________24 _ 08*_ 12 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 04 ____ 70

    Gonzo _________________23 _ 12*_ 18 _ 09 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 77


    NormaL ________________23 _ 13*_ 04 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 67


    waterways _____________ 22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 03 ____ 67

    Dasa29 ________________22 _ 13*_ 04 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 10 ____ 64


    Con Sensus ____________ 22 _ 11*_ 18 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 75


    adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 18*_ 18 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ____ 77

    Appledrop ______________21 _ 08*_ 17 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 07 ____ 66

    Sunflower3 _____________21 _ 11*_ 13 _ 08 _ 09 ___ 04 ____ 66

    Bsal __________________ 21 _ 15*_ 06 _ 08 _ 08 ___ 08 ____ 66

    Pauldry ________________20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 03 _ 10 ___ 04 ____ 55

    Dacogawa ______________19 _ 03*_ 13 _ 00 _ 07 ___ 07 ____ 49

    Jpmarn ________________19 _ 11*_ 16 _ 15 _ 09 ___ 07 ____ 77

    200motels _____________ 19 _ 14*_ 16 _ 09 _ 05 ___ 09 ____ 72

    sryanbruen _____________18 _ 16*_ 19 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 05 ____ 66

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 16 _ 20*_ 18 _ 08 _ 05 ___ 12 ____ 79

    Mr stonewall ____________15 _ 18*_ 18 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 79

    _______________________________________

    *MAX scored from minimum progression.

    =================================


    (actual forecasts)


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc


    Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

    Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

    Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

    MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

    DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

    john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

    Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

    Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

    Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1


    NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2


    waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

    Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5


    Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5


    adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

    Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

    Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

    Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

    Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

    Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

    Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

    200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

    sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

    Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

    _______________________________________

    Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

    =================================


    Annual updated scoring will be posted after these scores are adjusted on 4th.

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


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    #52
    John mac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,120 ✭✭✭John mac


    had the sun and precip the wrong way round ,, / :)



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    #53
    Tae laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 727 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Unusually, we all overestimated max temp of 18.6. MT closest at 18.9.



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    #54
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,969 ✭✭✭appledrop


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119003884#Comment_119003884

    Yep me too.

    Actually M.T I made a mistake when I was posting, I mixed up sun and precip so feel free to swap them back around and score me that way😉🤪.



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    #55
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,969 ✭✭✭appledrop


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004467#Comment_119004467

    That seems a really low max for April, even March was higher.

    Is that the lowest max in a long time for April?



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    #56
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users Posts: 13,612 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119004794#Comment_119004794

    Lowest since 2016 which was 18.5C. 2017 was also close at 18.7C.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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    #57
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    I can give credit to compensating errors when it comes to that max, felt it would be a rather cool month in general (which it wasn't really) so I had a max in keeping with that, if I had thought we would average 8.6 would have probably said 20 to 21 like most did. I hope the weather starts getting a bit more interesting this summer, 2022 so far has been a generally bland year with little excitement. Or so it seems. Where I live, pretty much similar story, I think we used up all the dramatic weather in 2021 here (heat dome, flooding rainfalls). By our standards it was a rather quiet winter and the spring here has been quite chilly until the past few days. I would say it is two weeks behind the normal pace of blooming, the grass only began to turn green this past week and has not grown enough to be cut yet. Just the first sign of budding on trees and bushes (at my elevation, down in the valley below it is more advanced). But we may hit 25 C tomorrow.



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    #58
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    The MS reports that the MAX was 18.5 C. This will not affect scoring which was already off minimum progression. IMT 8.6 and MIN -4.6 unchanged.

    PRC tweaked to 86%. Some will get an additional point from that adjustment. SUN calculated to 106% (total 996 hours, normal from 30-yr avg 936). Most but not all SUN scores will change by one point. Adjusted scoring as follows:


    Confirmed scoring for April 2022


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN__Bonus _ TOTALS


    MrSkinner ______________25 _ 10*_ 19 _ 14 _ 09 ___ 05 ____ 82

    Danno _________________24 _ 19*_ 15 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 05 ____ 81

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 16 _ 20*_ 18 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 12 ____ 81

    Mr stonewall ____________15 _ 18*_ 18 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 05 ____ 78

    Gonzo _________________23 _ 12*_ 18 _ 10 _ 07 ___ 08 ____ 78

    DOCARCH ______________25 _ 18*_ 05 _ 14 _ 08 ___ 07 ____ 77

    adam240610 ___________ 22 _ 18*_ 18 _ 10 _ 03 ___ 06 ____ 77


    ___ Con Sensus _________22 _ 11*_ 18 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 77


    Jpmarn ________________19 _ 11*_ 16 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 07 ____ 76

    Artane2002 ____________ 24 _ 06*_ 19 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 09 ____ 75

    200motels _____________ 19 _ 14*_ 16 _ 10 _ 06 ___ 09 ____ 74

    Kindred Spirit ___________24 _ 08*_ 12 _ 14 _ 07 ___ 04 ____ 69

    waterways _____________ 22 _ 10*_ 15 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 03 ____ 69

    Appledrop ______________21 _ 08*_ 17 _ 09 _ 06 ___ 07 ____ 68

    Sunflower3 _____________21 _ 11*_ 13 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 04 ____ 68

    Bsal __________________ 21 _ 15*_ 06 _ 09 _ 09 ___ 08 ____ 68


    ___ NormaL ____________23 _ 13*_ 04 _ 10 _ 09 ___ 09 ____ 68


    sryanbruen _____________18 _ 16*_ 19 _ 02 _ 07 ___ 05 ____ 67

    Tae laidir ______________ 22 _ 05*_ 19 _ 01 _ 08 ___ 11 ____ 66

    Joe Public ______________24 _ 05*_ 19 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 02 ____ 66

    Dasa29 ________________22 _ 13*_ 04 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 10 ____ 65

    Pauldry ________________20 _ 02*_ 16 _ 04 _ 09 ___ 04 ____ 55

    john mac ______________ 24 _ 01*_ 05 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 09 ____ 54

    Dacogawa ______________19 _ 03*_ 13 _ 00 _ 08 ___ 07 ____ 50

    _______________________________________

    *MAX scored from minimum progression.

    =================================


    (actual forecasts)


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Mull 17th Tmax Prc


    Tae laidir _______________8.9 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 128 _ 096 ___ 13.5 _ 3.5

    Artane2002 ____________ 8.7 _ 21.3 _ -4.5 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 14.3 _ 1.3

    Danno _________________8.7 _ 19.4 _ -4.1 _ 100 _ 115 ___ 16.3 _ 0.1

    MrSkinner ______________8.6 _ 21.0 _ -4.5 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 17.0 _ 0.6

    DOCARCH ______________8.6 _ 19.8 _ -3.1 _ 090 _ 115 ___ 14.2 _ 0.2

    john mac ______________ 8.5 _ 22.5 _ -3.1 _ 110 _ 098 ____ 9.8 _ 1.6

    Joe Public ______________8.5 _ 21.5 _ -4.7 _ 111 _ 099 ___ 18.1 _ 0.0

    Kindred Spirit ___________8.5 _ 21.2 _ -3.8 _ 088 _ 121 ___ 17.0 _ 0.1

    Gonzo _________________8.4 _ 20.7 _ -4.8 _ 102 _ 093 ___ 15.2 _ 2.1


    NormaL ________________8.4 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 0.2


    waterways _____________ 8.3 _ 21.0 _ -5.1 _ 102 _ 099 ___ 17.0 _ 0.0

    Dasa29 ________________8.3 _ 20.5 _ -3.0 _ 110 _ 100 ___ 14.5 _ 2.5


    Con Sensus ____________ 8.3 _ 20.8 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 100 ___ 15.0 _ 1.5


    adam240610 ___________ 8.3 _ 19.8 _ -4.4 _ 100 _ 073 ___ 14.1 _ 0.0

    Appledrop ______________8.2 _ 21.2 _ -4.3 _ 105 _ 085 ___ 14.4 _ 0.2

    Sunflower3 _____________8.2 _ 20.8 _ -3.9 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ 0.0

    Bsal __________________ 8.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.2 _ 105 _ 102 ___ 12.5 _ 0.1

    Pauldry ________________8.1 _ 22.4 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 111 ___ 16.5 _ 0.0

    Dacogawa ______________8.0 _ 22.2 _ -3.9 _ 135 _ 093 ___ 15.1 _ 0.5

    Jpmarn ________________8.0 _ 20.8 _ -4.2 _ 085 _ 115 ___ 14.8 _ 0.5

    200motels _____________ 8.0 _ 20.1 _ -4.2 _ 102 _ 084 ___ 15.3 _ 2.9

    sryanbruen _____________7.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 125 _ 090 ___ 14.9 _ 0.0

    M.T. Cranium ___________ 7.7 _ 18.9 _ -4.4 _ 105 _ 087 ___ 12.3_10.9

    Mr stonewall ____________7.6 _ 19.8 _ -4.8 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 15.1 _ 0.0

    _______________________________________

    Con Sensus is median value (mean of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 entries).

    =================================

    Congrats to MrSkinner, Danno (MTC) and Mr Stonewall, Gonzo for leading the scoring which was generally quite good. Not sure if we ever had a month where all scores were at least 50. On to the annual update ...



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    #59
    appledrop
    Registered Users Posts: 5,969 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Congrats also to yourself M.T, I really thought you would be 1st this month, you were very close!



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    #60
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,508 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Annual Scoring Summary Jan to Apr 2022


    Rank (prev) _ FORECASTER _______ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ TOTAL


    00.8_(01.8)___ Con Sensus _______ 80 _ 70 _ 56 _ 77 __ 283

    _01 _ (10) __MrSkinner ___________63 _ 63 _ 67 _ 82 __ 275

    _02 _(t08) __Mr stonewall _________67 _ 70 _ 57 _ 78 __ 272

    _03 _ (01) __Pauldry _____________78 _ 77 _ 57 _ 55 __ 267 

    _t04_(t05) __Appledrop ___________67 _ 76 _ 55 _ 68 __ 266

    _t04_(t05) __sunflower3 __________77 _ 60 _ 61 _ 68 __ 266

    _t06_(t03) __Tae laidir ___________ 70 _ 77 _ 52 _ 66 __ 265

    _t06_ (07) __Bsal _______________ 61 _ 67 _ 69 _ 68 __ 265

    _08 _(t08) __Kindred Spirit ________80 _ 66 _ 48 _ 69 __ 263

    _09 _ (11) __Artane2002 _________ 59 _ 70 _ 55 _ 75 __ 259

    _10 _ (02) __john mac____________82 _ 53 _ 69 _ 54 __ 258 

    _11 _ (12) __DOCARCH ___________78 _ 50 _ 47 _ 77 __ 252

    _12 _(t03) __dacogawa ___________78 _ 63 _ 58 _ 50 __ 249

    _13 _ (15) __Jpmarn _____________54 _ 55 _ 55 _ 76 __ 240

    _14 _(t13) __sryanbruen __________65 _ 58 _ 49 _ 67 __ 239

    14.0_ (14.1)_____ NormaL _______ 60 _ 57 _ 54 _ 68 __ 239 

    _t15_(t13) __Dasa29 _____________72 _ 50 _ 50 _ 65 __ 237

    _t15_ (17) __Gonzo ______________43 _ 49 _ 67 _ 78 __ 237

    _17 _ (19) __M.T. Cranium ________ 65 _ 45 _ 39 _ 81 __ 230

    _t18_ (16) __Joe Public ___________50 _ 57 _ 53 _ 66 __ 226

    _t18_ (18) __waterways __________ 65 _ 45 _ 47 _ 69 __ 226

    _20 _ (20) __adam240610 ________ 54 _ 26 _ 54 _ 77 __ 211

    _21 _ (21) __Danno _____________ 30 _ 19 _ 64 _ 81 __ 194

    _22 _ (22) __200motels __________ 57 _ 49 _ --- _ 74 __ 180

    _23 _ (23) __Gaoth laidir _________--- _ --- _ 70 _ --- ___ 70

    _24 _ (24) __Bazlers ____________ 56 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 56

    _25 _ (25) __esposito ____________52 _ --- _ --- _ --- ___ 52


    ==================================================


    Updated category scoring Jan to Apr 2022


    FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_BONUS_ Tot __ Adj

    __ Max possible _________100 _ 80 _ 80 _ 60 _ 40 __ 40+ ____400 _ 400

    ___ Consensus __________ 89 _ 56 _ 49 _ 33 _ 27 __ 29 _____ 283 _ 283

    MrSkinner ______________ 88 _ 48 _ 34 _ 52 _ 29 __ 24 _____ 275 _ 275

    Mr Stonewall ____________76 _ 49 _ 63 _ 33 _ 24 __ 27 _____ 272 _ 272

    Pauldry ________________ 89 _ 52 _ 53 _ 20 _ 28 __ 26 _____ 268 _ 267

    Appledrop ______________ 95 _ 55 _ 40 _ 32 _ 24 __ 21 _____ 267 _ 266

    Sunflower3 _____________ 88 _ 61 _ 42 _ 29 _ 22 __ 24 _____ 266 _ 266

    Tae laidir _______________87 _ 51 _ 50 _ 20 _ 25 __ 32 _____ 265 _ 265

    Bsal ___________________82 _ 49 _ 40 _ 33 _ 33 __ 28 _____ 265 _ 265

    Kindred Spirit ___________ 86 _ 51 _ 37 _ 41 _ 24 __ 24 _____ 263 _ 263

    Artane2002 _____________87 _ 39 _ 54 _ 24 _ 22 __ 33 _____ 259 _ 259

    John mac ______________ 94 _ 45 _ 35 _ 31 _ 25 __ 28 _____ 258 _ 258

    DOCARCH ______________ 88 _ 50 _ 28 _ 33 _ 25 __ 28 _____ 252 _ 252

    Dacogawa ______________ 89 _ 56 _ 37 _ 17 _ 22 __ 28 _____249 _ 249

    Jpmarn ________________ 64 _ 44 _ 31 _ 39 _ 32 __ 30 _____ 240 _ 240

    sryanbruen _____________ 74 _ 57 _ 35 _ 22 _ 27 __ 24 _____ 239 _ 239

    ___ NormaL _____________73 _ 52 _ 13 _ 40 _ 28 __ 33 _____ 239 _ 239

    Dasa29 ________________ 79 _ 43 _ 31 _ 32 _ 29 __ 26 _____ 240 _ 237

    Gonzo _________________ 82 _ 47 _ 36 _ 23 _ 21 __ 28 _____ 237 _ 237

    M.T. Cranium ____________74 _ 39 _ 35 _ 30 _ 28 __ 24 _____ 230 _ 230

    waterways ______________75 _ 49 _ 17 _ 33 _ 31 __ 21 _____ 226 _ 226

    Joe Public ______________ 68 _ 41 _ 39 _ 34 _ 26 __ 18 _____ 226 _ 226

    adam240610 ____________66 _ 43 _ 35 _ 21 _ 21 __ 27 _____ 213 _ 211

    Danno _________________ 51 _ 44 _ 32 _ 30 _ 22 __ 18 _____ 197 _ 194

    200motels _ (3/4) ________56 _ 46 _ 18 _ 28 _ 19 __ 18 _____ 185 _ 180

    Gaoth Laidir _(1/4) _______22 _ 15 _ 03 _ 11 _ 07 __ 12 ______ 70 _ 70

    Bazlers _ (1/4) __________ 24 _ 07 _ 00 _ 13 _ 08 __ 04 ______ 56 _ 56

    esposito _ (1/4) _________ 24 _ 17 _ 00 _ 03 _ 03 __ 05 ______ 52 _ 52

    =======

    In the table above, top score in each category is in bold, and second highest in italics.

    NormaL equals top score in bonus category. Con Sensus not ranked 1st or 2nd in any.

    ------------------------------------------------

    = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

    Congrats to MrSkinner and Mr Stonewall for taking over the leading two ranks in annual scoring, in general the annual scoring is tighter now as in almost all cases, last month's top annual scorers added the fewest points.



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    #61
    mr.stonewall
    Registered Users Posts: 1,798 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Thanks @M.T@M.T. Cranium . Enjoying this competition for the past year and a half since joining. Knowing my luck now I will fall down the table very quickly now. Weather influences my daily life with rainfall and temps being the biggest impacts on farming and grass growth on a daily and weekly basis. April was a tough month to call, as the dry conditions were welcomed, but the cold pinched growth. This dry weather in may is a bit concerning as is it the our summer.

    The table is tight with approx 20% of total scores separating top to bottom. Well done to everyone

    The warmth over the past few days as been welcomed as we have had an explosion in growth. A drop of liquid nitrogen😉😉 would drive it on further

    IMG_20220504_190239.jpg

    @M.T



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