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"Green" policies are destroying this country

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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,542 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Well where ever they build them they would want to make a better job of it than they did in Derrybrien



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Difficult to say with any degree of certainty how oil prices will go. According to the AA 20th. April the average price for a barrel of oil was 108 U.S. dollars. For the 4 year period 2011 until 2014 it hovered around 120 U.S. dollars per barrel, so it does not appear that the barrel price is what is responsible for the sharp rise in prices at the pumps.

    The AA also did a breakdown of the price at the pumps for April.

    Pump price for petrol 180.9c per liter. Price before taxes are added 82.3c

    Those taxes were : Excise including carbon tax 62.77c, Nora 2c, VAT 33.83c. Total tax per liter 97.6 c

    I do not remember paying anywhere near the prices we are paying now during that 2011 -2014 period when a barrel of oil was more expensive than it is now so it does not look as if the price of oil coming out of the ground is responsible for driving up prices now.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It's a massive spike in refinery prices that are driving it. There's a link to the data in another thread, I'll see if I can dig it out

    Edit: Here you go




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Spikes in production prices tend to level themselves out. Same appears to be happening with oil prices.

    It only went as high as that 2011 -2014 price for April, but even at that during the month at various times went from 123.6 to 101.28.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    True, but what we're seeing now is a consistently high price for crude coupled with a doubling/tripling of the refined price.

    Looks like all the players in the supply chain are pushing to maximise profits out of oil while they can before the market shrinkage takes hold.

    I honestly think we're soon going to see stable €2+ prices from here on out with €1.xx prices being a thing of the past.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The price of crude was consistently around 120 a barrel for the 4 years 2011 -2014 and we were paying nothing close to the price we are now. Even today with the prices we are paying, a barrel of oil is not at that price. Pump prices appear to be pushed up due to refinery costs, and the addition of taxes and duties on top of those refining costs. It`s not due to a massive increase in the price of a barrel of oil. It`s due to a sudden lack of refining capability due to no refined petrol or diesel coming from Russia and taxes heaped on top.

    There is a lot more to suggest that the price will come down when extra refining capability is added than prices will remain high due to the barrel price of oil.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    "You have not demonstrated any understanding of how the figure was derived, and the more you talk about it, the more obvious it is that you haven't properly read or understood any of the sources."

    Tbf that diatribe would appear to more correctly refer to yourself. Not only did you copy and paste different parts of the EPA report which are evidently contradictory. But you are now apparently hanging your hat on one particular sentence from that report which failed to stand up to scrutiny ie

    "particulate matter from the burning of solid fuel is estimated to cause premature 1300 deaths per year"*

    Where as demonstrated this sentence is at odds with both the EPAs own research into P2.5 particulate emissions in Ireland and indeed as shown is at odds with what is contained in the rest of the report linked.

    You also failed to show how any of those contradictions could in anyway support your various claims.

    Most important of which is the fact that the estimated "1,300 premature deaths are not (as you seem to believe) the result of the burning of solid fuel, but rather derive from P2.5 particulates from a range of sources which include solid fuels, traffic emissions and other sources. Ignore that fact all you like. But sticking your head in the sand isn't going to help you or Mr Ryan bandwagoning eitherway.

    To top it all off that the estimated "1,300" figure for premature deaths remains one which is extrapolated and is not based on data relating to real deaths and comes with a whole bunch of caveats. And whilst a useful means of modelling air quality, the estimated figure is not related in any way to actual deaths and shouldn't be used as a bludgeon to try and beat people around the head with.

    As for the "scaremongering". The general idea by the GP seems to be to spread the notion that 'turf kills people' or wtte. As per the byline in one of the green parties publication of choice if this thread is anything to go by

    This is just one hillarious example of where Mr Ryans spoutings can lead to "scaremongering". Lots of things kill people. Turf is fairly far down that list.

    And on the topic of hilarity, I see that you now claim:

    "That figure is perfectly legitimate to use when supporting a policy aimed at reducing PM 2.5 pollution"

    Wrong. The European Environmental Agency data shows that Ireland demonstates high air quality levels with low annual mean levels of P2.5 particulates. Specififically the latest EEA report on air quality shows that the annual mean air quality in Ireland for the years 2015-2019 (along with just a handful of countries including Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Norway and Sweden) is one of only a few countries not to report concentrations above EU AQG for PM2.5 for the reference period 2015-2019

    https://www.eea.europa.eu/themes/air/country-fact-sheets/2021-country-fact-sheets/ireland

    Maybe we should just eat the turf instead? That would certainly be in line with some of Mr Ryans other other bizarre ideas of wolves, window boxes of lettuce and fighting your neighbour over who is going to use the shared car.

    His jumping on the "you're going to die if you use turf" bandwagon does his cause no favours tbh. There is little doubt that there is a good environmental argument for reducing peat extraction. But why Mr Ryan has decided to ditch that in favour of rabbiting on about turf killing people only the dog knows

    Post edited by Mecanudo on


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Yes and no, its complicated by the fact that OPEC are consistently under producing to maintain a deficit of supply.

    So you have

    • The Russia fustercluck
    • Refineries charging higher prices
    • Reduced outputs
    • Lack of investment in new wells
    • and so on

    Seriously, the share of investment in new wells has almost never been lower as investors are very wary of putting money into a resource that is going to see demand rapidly fall off a cliff .

    Its also a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy as the higher prices are driving demand to sustainable alternatives at a faster rate than before.

    Hey, maybe I'm wrong, but I really don't think so. The name of the game for major producers now is to extract the maximum amount of profits as quick as possible and divert those profits into dividends and alternative power sources asap. This can already be seen all across the industry as the major players are pouring into the green energy space, paying out huge dividends and making feck all investment into oil (when compared to previous years).

    One other factor to consider is also the impacts on price of switching away from Russian oil, coming through pipelines, to oil transported in tankers. Its significantly cheaper to pipe it than ship it. Couple this with the fact that there are a finite amount of tankers around, with no appetite to build new ones (they'll be redundant in a short period).

    As I said, all indicators seem to be pointing to a sustained period of consistently high prices for oil products



  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    Depleted ground water causing subsidence seems to be the biggest cause although there may be other causes depending on the geology of the area



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    As I said, all indicators seem to be pointing to a sustained period of consistently high prices for oil products

    You could be onto to something there alright. But not for the reasons you're thinking.

    Here's details of pricing  showing the proportion of which  extra charges make up, on top of the base product price for petrol and diesel including the amount of tax and vat imposed by each country

    Funnily enough fuel prices in Ireland have significant levels of tax, vat and other charges added with Ireland being in the top 10 European countries for the overall price of fuel.




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,387 ✭✭✭xckjoo


    If you look at the source of data for EEA numbers it's from the EPA themselves and looks to be incorrectly sourced. Better to check the EPA website directly.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The name of the game right now is that European countries from the Russian clusterfcuk got a sudden sharp wake up call on why they need oil and the effect to their economies of the price rising on an energy source they are going to need for many years into the future, and with the Russian situation not looking likely to be resolved anytime soon, a source where demand is not going to "fall off a cliff" anytime soon either.

    Although our lot haven`t fully got the message yet, unlike Germany who are back exploring for oil and gas, building LNG terminals plus leasing floating terminals and back strip mining coal, they have reduced the excise duty and are looking to have the VAT rate lowered. They may not be like the Germans now pouring money into fossil fuels, but similar to Germany the reduction in revenue will cut the money for investments in renewables. Neither are they the only two countries doing so, and while that is unfortunate it just comes down to that quote of James Carville`s in 1992 that at the end of the day "It`s the economy stupid"

    Even with Russia`s share of the world market of 10% virtually gone, at present crude oil prices are lower than the 4 year period 2011-2014 so I do not see there is a shortage in oil production, and if their is then major producers are not taking advantage to any great degree when you consider a barrel of oil is still cheaper than it was in that period.

    I do see though from this a realisation by coutries (and one the E.U. already recognises) that investors in renewable energy making large profit due to legislation licensing them to do so, is no help to economies or private households at present and needs to change.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    This is an interesting one, wonder how much of an impact it will have




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    When burning dirt, pollution and the destruction of habitats are considered a "tradition" there's something seriously wrong with that tradition.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Regarding the shortage in oil production, see below


    Basically, since covid hit hard in mar 2020, when oil went into negative values for a period, production has lagged behind supply. Now the forecast is showing a stabilisation, but its still to be seen whether or not the Russia fustercluck will impact things. In addition, as I mentioned, the fact that investment has also stalled is impacting production capacity as some equipment is coming to end-of-life or needing significant work to keep it functioning, this has not been a priority over the last 2 years, but may start being prioritised soon seeing as prices are so high now.

    In addition, both OPEC and Non-OPEC producers are still producing less than before covid



    Some additional details




  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    From that first chart The forecast is for demand to rise and production to keep pace with demand.

    The second chart shows production is also rising in both OPEC and non OPEC countries. Demand always brings money to the market and with the present price, even though still lower than 2011 -2014, I would not see any reason not to expect some of that money going into production capacity, including refining which is raising the price of petrol and diesel plus taxes on top, rather than the price of oil itself

    I don`t see why there is a call for the OPEC countries to reduction the price of a barrel of oil. It is still lower than 8 years ago and there are not many products you can say that about.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    "When burning dirt, pollution and the destruction of habitats are considered a "tradition" there's something seriously wrong with that tradition."

    Dirt? Do you mean as in the American term for soil?

    Never could understand the way Americans refer to soil as "dirt" tbh. And whilst its certainly true that there are peaty soils, peat aka turf is also a fuel. And whether anyone likes that or otherwise. Peat is a traditional fuel in Ireland.

    I really wouldn't expect the guardian - an extremely British centric newspaper to necessarily understand the traditional use of turf in Ireland or to understand that people in Ireland often had little choice in the type of fuel they had access to. That still hasn't gone away regardless.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Maybe, as I said, this is just how I'm reading it and I could very well be wrong. Maybe the price will drop again at the pumps, I can't see it, but maybe it will



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Well clearly from looking at 2011 -2014 it is not the price of oil that has driven the price so high.

    I`ts refining and taxes on top of the increase in refining costs. I would not see any reason not to expect those refining costs to come down as they are up because refining is having difficulty keeping up with demand. Once that is sorted, it will be interesting to see will countries increase their excise and carbon tax levies. If they do, then it would be difficult to blame producers for raising the barrel price.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Interesting certainly could be one way to put it. And in the context of the thread - I reckon though most likley it will turn into yet another large pink elephant to join the others happily grazing away and previously conjured up by our own green party.

    On the positive side, it should certainly keep a cohort of our homegrown broadcasters and entertainers in Tea and biscuits for a few months. That said, it's not like every other TV station and satalite channel isn't already out there "telling the story of climate change". An individual would need to be living in a cave on the dark side of the moon, not to inundated by the numerous daily media reports and announcements on climate change and associated topics.

    I would also have thought our national broadcaster has already been given enough of people's hard earned cash to fund these type of media projects, instead of diverting monies away from somewhat more pressing needs such as the urgent need to house refugees and ensuring people can keep the lights on or even having enough to keep themselves warm this winter.

    But sure as long as we can sit around the warm glow of the telly or sit in the local halla around a gas Superser listening to Pat reading his poem comparing Wind Turbines to daffodils, it should be grand right ?

    Post edited by Mecanudo on


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Speaking of increasing taxes /duties, I wonder if the 20c reduction on fuels will be dropped as scheduled in Aug



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    Seriously with the **** going down in Europe and the very real prospect of fuel shortages and or rationing - you think there's going to be the political appetite for the government to add flames to the fire?

    More chance of unicorns dancing under rainbows and **** ting diamonds I'd reckon

    🦄 🌈 💩 💎

    Post edited by Mecanudo on


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    It`s only scheduled to be in place for a relatively short time. From that it would suggest that there is an expectation within the Dept of Finance that both petrol and diesel prices will have eased by then. If refining capability is ramped up by then I would not see why that would not be the case.

    Although they have most likely cut a stick to beat themselves with on that if prices are not back to the prewar in Ukraine level by August and they try to reimpose those excise duty cuts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,884 ✭✭✭SlowBlowin


    Below is a snippet from this article: https://gript.ie/senator-delivers-bad-news-you-cant-burn-turf-if-you-are-underwater/

    I think this sums up a lot of peoples views on the subject.

    "The claims in question are not, actually, about turf: The claim (and it is, at best, dubious) is that 1,300 Irish people die because of air pollution in the round. That would include things like the emissions from vehicle exhausts, oil-fired central heating, the ringsend incinerator in Dublin, and all the rest. How many of those deaths are due to turf is an open question, though one might imagine that the answer is very few. After all, turf burning comprised a much greater percentage of our heating and energy output 100 years ago, and yet, as its use has fallen, deaths from air pollution (or alleged deaths) have increased. That suggests turf itself is a very minor – and that’s being generous – part of the equation."



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,069 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Hopefully some of the adults in government will sit Ryan down and explain to him why we need to know what the Barryroe field capabilities are as well as having a secure source of gas going forward. Wind`s share of electricity generation fell from 35% in 2020 to 29% in 2021. A 17% drop.




  • Registered Users Posts: 22,408 ✭✭✭✭Akrasia


    The EEA limits for PM2.5 are substantially less strict than the WHO limits and the limits are an average over a given time, while acute exposure to PM2.5 is one of the risk factors for respiratory illness amongst people with a sensitivity to these pollutants.

    While Ireland generally complies with EEA limits, we regularly exceed WHO limits. I guess it's a matter of policy, do you think 1300 excess deaths a year in a population of 5 million is acceptable (plus all the additional hospitalisations and health impacts that are less severe than death)



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,049 ✭✭✭Mecanudo


    It remains Ireland is in compliance with EU emission standards for P2.5 particulates as was detailed. Now you want to move the goalposts. Ok off you go - there's a huge field out the back with loads of space for you to run around to your hearts content

    "Excess" deaths? its an estimate for "premature" deaths" due to P2.5 particulates caused by a number of sources including the burning of fossil fuels, vehicle exhausts etc. P

    As I said Eamon and friends beating the fossil fuels / 'turf will likley kill you' drum when there's plenty of environmental reasons which he could use - shows the type of scaremongering the green party will use just to get attention. Plenty of things will kill you Eamon - turf is fairly far down that list in the big scheme of things.



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