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US Supreme Court to overturn Roe vs Wade

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Comments

  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Franco Fat Key


    As someone who is practicing law, do you fancy debating Roe vs. Wade?



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Sean.3516


    I'm not sure if you meant to show me elephant and dog foetuses. If you did, I'm not sure what point you were making.

    That all mammalian species look very different and underdeveloped during early gestation compared to when they're born? That unborn humans are equivalent to more primitive forms of life? I really don't know.

    Allow me to ask you a question. The post you quote asks: "Do these look like human beings capable of living on their own and making independent choices on their own lives?"

    Does this?

    How do you think it would fare if left to live on its own? Does it look capable of making "independent choices"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    There is no right to privacy in the US Constitution. The Roe V Wade decision concocted one out of whole cloth based on the 4th and 9th amendments. Those deal with "unreasonable search and seizure" and unenumerated rights. Nothing to do with a generalised right to privacy that Roe based abortion rights on. It's not even clear what a right to "privacy" means since privacy means different things in different contexts.

    Thank you. This is a point I and many critics of the draft are getting at. This is the antithesis of what conservative voters want. Losing their own proclaimed rights to privacy.

    Men like women have no right to undergo "medical procedures" that intentionally result in the killing of another human being. The other problem with Roe is that it doesn't even bother to address whether abortion kills a human being (which is the rationale for laws against abortion.)

    Nor did the decision decide whether a fetus can even be considered "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States? Certainly, the SCOTUS does not hold that a fetus has personhood.

    You haven't bothered to address this either.

    Was I ordered to? What about the Burger Court? Did they decide which way the appellants made their appeal in 1979 and what the question the parties brought before them even was? No, the Court decides which questions to take up and answer, but it doesn't write the questions.

    If you think a law protecting innocent human life at the cost of individual autonomy (just like every law against murder) shouldn't exist then you have to argue why that life isn't worthy of protection. (Or why that which I'm calling a life isn't a life). Pro-choicers have no interest in doing this. They do an end-run around the argument by just writing the whole thing off as a "private medical decision".

    You shouldn't even think about arguing from the Equal Protection Clause until you've addressed those questions.

    Weird Gatekeeping going on here. I wasn't aware speech was compelled now, I thought that was still free and at-will.

    Murder doesn't apply here. Neither murderer nor homicide victim cohabit the same symbiotic and organic being.

    You may as well demand that we urgently pass all laws stripping away all citizen privacies that we don't have the right to anyway, it turns out, in order to protect innocent children from a nonzero rate of sex abuse. Or as Scalia wrote once:

    ''There is nothing new in the realization that the Constitution sometimes insulates the criminality of a few in order to protect the privacy of us all.''

    In order to protect from child predators, I don't think most reasonable people, or even the best Qanon supporters out there, would agree we all must submit DNA to a federal database and be subject to facial recognition scans every 20 feet if you're out in public in order to catch the one of pedo a few times a year.

    Calling the logical conclusion of a reasoned position to be an "end run?" I don't follow. There is an Abortion Discussion on board over 30,000 posts long where lots of souls have come to swap stories that paint a very clear picture why a termination of pregnancy is not something you can just "ban." In general Savita Halappanavar is a prime example of why the procedures will always exist, even for happy mommies who love their precious babies who would love to bring them into the world if not for the fact the pregnancy was killing one or both of them. Etcetera. It is, matter of factly, a private medical decision.

    The Equal Protection clause would self-evidently defend the rights of the Person in this scenario, not the fetus, which does not have Personhood under the Constitution.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Sean.3516


    So one can obtain an official certificate that acknowledges the death of an unborn child as long as the stillbirth occurred after 20 weeks gestation, yet in New York such a "child" could be aborted at request.

    If the mother were murdered in New York and the child died, the law would not regard it as a double murder. Hmmmm...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    What’s to Hmmmmm about? It’s a commemorative document with no legal meaning. It’s also something some states may do and some others may not; nothing in federal law I’m aware of stipulations the provision of such commemoration.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    The infant in the image is still umbilically tied to the mother? If not then the infant is functionally autonomous. The fact that it can be set down and walked away from (“abandoned”) evidences the fact. Constitutionally speaking it has personhood. Legally speaking this person is a minor and a dependent and it’s parents have legal status as such. Most of its statutory rights will be vested in the parents until they reach legal adulthood.



  • Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭Sean.3516


    Thank you. This is a point I and many critics of the draft are getting at. This is the antithesis of what conservative voters want. Losing their own proclaimed rights to privacy.

    Interesting you say "rights" to privacy. Plural. As I said, privacy can mean different things in different contexts. My point was that deriving a generalised right to privacy from the 4th and 9th amendments is nonsense. As for "what conservative voters want", my guess is if you were to weigh up overturning Roe against the non-existent right to privacy that comes from Roe, they'd overturn Roe. If you don't think so, then you do not understand conservative voters.

    Nor did the decision decide whether a fetus can even be considered "subject to the jurisdiction" of the United States? Certainly, the SCOTUS does not hold that a fetus has personhood.

    Yes. It's a state issue now. Perhaps one day the court could rule that abortion is unconstitutional, citing the Equal Protection Clause (on behalf of the unborn child). Some have argued that this would be correct. But this won't happen in the lifetime of this court.

    Was I ordered to? What about the Burger Court? Did they decide which way the appellants made their appeal in 1979 and what the question the parties brought before them even was? No, the Court decides which questions to take up and answer, but it doesn't write the questions.

    Irrelevant. They can consider what they like in the decision.

    Weird Gatekeeping going on here. I wasn't aware speech was compelled now, I thought that was still free and at-will.

    -Yawn- I'm not trying to compel you. I'm saying that your entire argument begs the question as to whether unborn humans are human beings worthy of rights and you and other pro-choicers seem completely uninterested in engaging in a discussion about whether or not that's actually true or not.

    Murder doesn't apply here. Neither murderer nor homicide victim cohabit the same symbiotic and organic being.

    That's an incoherent statement. A mother and unborn do not "cohabit" the same organic being. That's the wrong way to describe it. The mother is one organic being. The foetus is a separate organic being. The foetus happens to be inside the womb. Not sure how any of that is essential to the murderer/victim relationship. Worth noting the abortionist involved is regarded as the "murderer" in most anti-abortion legislation.

    You may as well demand that we urgently pass all laws stripping away all citizen privacies that we don't have the right to anyway, it turns out, in order to protect innocent children from a nonzero rate of sex abuse. Or as Scalia wrote once: 

    ''There is nothing new in the realization that the Constitution sometimes insulates the criminality of a few in order to protect the privacy of us all.''

    In order to protect from child predators, I don't think most reasonable people, or even the best Qanon supporters out there, would agree we all must submit DNA to a federal database and be subject to facial recognition scans every 20 feet if you're out in public in order to catch the one of pedo a few times a year.

    You're making the same mistake as the Roe V Wade decision. You're mistaking the right against "unreasonable search and seizure" in the 4th Amendment for a general right to privacy. You can't be forced to give your DNA to a government database for the same reason a cop can't search your house without either a warrant or probable cause.

    Calling the logical conclusion of a reasoned position to be an "end run?" I don't follow. There is an Abortion Discussion on board over 30,000 posts long where lots of souls have come to swap stories that paint a very clear picture why a termination of pregnancy is not something you can just "ban."

    It's an end run because you're writing abortion off as a "private medical decision" that the law has no business regulating without even engaging with the points of pro lifers that the unborn foetus is a human being worthy of the right to life.

    In general Savita Halappanavar is a prime example of why the procedures will always exist, even for happy mommies who love their precious babies who would love to bring them into the world if not for the fact the pregnancy was killing one or both of them. Etcetera. It is, matter of factly, a private medical decision.

    Great. Let's do this old routine where we stand on the grave of Savita Halappanavar and completely ignore the coroner's report which stated she died due to sepsis and medical incompetence that led to her sepsis being misdiagnosed and had it not been initially misdiagnosed, either an abortion wouldn't have been necessary or one would have been carried out in time to save her life because the 8th Amendment allowed abortions to save the life of the woman.



  • Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Everyone thinks it's great that the EU is so democratic and gives smaller states like Ireland a proper voice, but when the US does it, it's undemocratic.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 16,465 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    It comes down to the nature of the US as it was construed. Today, we would say refer to the US as “it” and say “the US is”, but that is a post-bellum convention. Prior to the Civil War, Americans would say that the US is “them” and the US “are”. (This was reflected in law at the time as well). The various states working together needed a forum to ensure that every individual State had equal worth in the matters relevant to the Federal Government, which itself was restricted pretty much to foreign affairs. It took until some time in the 20h century before the Federal government budget covered anything much other than defense and diplomatic issues, as everything else was for the states to deal with (10th Amendment).



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,348 ✭✭✭nozzferrahhtoo


    No. The user was distinguishing between two things the anti choice brigade try to conflate and obfuscate. Which is at 34 weeks we do not terminate a fetus/baby. We terminate a pregnancy. Meaning, quite simply, we prematurely deliver a living baby and keep it healthy to the best of our ability.

    So the user asked you, and you deflected and dodged, "Who said killing 34 week old babies is ok?". The reason you deflected and dodged is clear. No one said that. So you have no answer to give.

    And I object to the use of language intended to humanise a fetus before it's due. And during our own referendum here every single anti choice poster I confronted on this issue essentially ran away.

    It seems the reason people say "baby" is not the objection you claim, but in fact that the word is more evocative and emotive and so is an attempt to emotionally invest the electorate in the development of the fetus to a degree far beyond what is warranted. The result of the referendum suggests this tactic failed however.

    Having listened to anti choice campaigners speak on the abortion issue for nearly 30 years now... I am well used to this. Their entire approach to the discussion appears to be to conflate biological life and human personhood as much as possible, almost exclusively through rhetorical moves and linguistic distortions of this kind. Clinging to words like "baby" and "life" and "human being" in lieu of any actual substantive arguments on the matter.

    Actual moral and ethical arguments against aborting, say, a 12 week old fetus appear thin on the ground. Though I have sought them, and continue to seek them, as I said for nearly 30 years now. But the failure of their rhetoric and their failure in the referendum appears not to have sparked any motivation to go back to the drawing board here.

    I think the difference between "fetus" and "baby" is actually entirely irrelevant except as a rhetorical emotive move. Mainly because I do not ascribe moral and ethical concern to anything based on the label it is given, so much as based on the ATTRIBUTES it has. I can think of no attribute a 12 week old fetus has which warrants any moral or ethical concern.

    To answer your rhetorical question however, when we treat women for the emotional trauma of losing a pregnancy we in fact do distinguish with them the difference between having lost a baby and having lost a pregnancy. Precisely because it is "just" a fetus. I have written on this fact extensively in the past. I can do so again if required.

    But humans are a narrative driven species. So much so that one writer even half jokingly suggested we should not be called "Homo Sapien" (Wise Ape) so much as "Pans Narrans" (Storytelling Chimpanzee). People can become emotionally invested in a fetus, and the baby and child they intend for it to become. So much so that this child becomes real to them early in the process. And so it's loss hits them equally emotionally. And this is the simple answer to your question about things like "Compassionate Leave". Though there is also a functional aspect to this as well as losing a pregnancy is not a trivial event medically either and as such temporary leave is justifiable for that reason too.

    All that said however, the fact that some people become emotionally invested in the process is irrelevant to the discussion of abortion. Simply because one persons unwarranted emotional concerns is not something the rest of us should be held accountable to. Their emotional investment in the process, as beautiful as that may be in and of itself, does not hold us to any moral or ethical concerns that are relevant to the issue of elective abortion.

    "Your definition mentions abortions usually take place within 28 weeks of pregnancy."

    Which is a little misleading as definitions go as the statistics I found over the years show that the near totality of elective abortions happen in or before week 12 and certainly by week 16. The near totality of abortions AFTER this period are done not electively but due to some other necessity such as fetal abnormalities or the health of the mother. So posting pictures of a premature birth after 22 weeks is just an emotive move with no intellectual content at all.

    As I explained to Pussy above, terms like "baby" and "fetus" and "Human being" are therefore nothing but red herrings and obfuscate what should really concern us. Which is that it matters not what a fetus LOOKS like. We even had one user who very comically went on about how it's tongue moves.

    What matters is identifying A) What attributes precisely should we use to decide when to ascribe moral and ethical concern to something (such as human rights) and B) does the fetus have said attributes.

    At 12-16 weeks, and in fact for some time afterwards, there is no reason I am currently aware of to suggest that the fetus has developed at all, let alone brought on line, the faculty of human consciousness/sentience. This is the only attribute I have found in nearly 30 years of conversations on this debate which warrants ascribing moral/ethical concern to an(y) entity. As such I fail to find any intellectual argument against elective abortion at this time.

    Should any other attributes exist that I have missed I am all ears.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,606 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Nonsense.

    Prisoners, black people, and school children have heartbeats and feel pain but somehow the American right is more than happy with their being murdered.

    It's about misogyny and control. Nothing else.

    The EU isn't a country. It's a geopolitical union made up of mostly small states so allowing them to be rolled over would collapse the whole thing. The US is a single country. Once it was a union of states but its democracy has been perverted mostly by the right through gerrymandering and the broken senate. 20 million Californians and 285,000 Wyoming citizens each having one senator is beyond parody.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,211 ✭✭✭✭One eyed Jack



    Prisoners, black people, and school children have heartbeats and feel pain but somehow the American right is more than happy with their being murdered.

    It's about misogyny and control. Nothing else.


    They’re really not though. As far as Alveda King, one of the most prominent anti-abortion campaigners on the right is concerned, abortion is about racial discrimination -


    King is a pro-life activist. She had two abortions before changing her views following the birth of one of her children and her becoming a born-again Christian in 1983. King frames the issue as one of racial discrimination; she has referred to abortion as "womb-lynching" and accused Planned Parenthood of profiting from "aborting black babies." King is director of the activist group Civil Rights for the Unborn and is director of Priests for Life's African American outreach.

    In 1996, she denounced her aunt Coretta Scott King for her support for abortion rights.

    On September 22, 2020, King appeared in Birminghamalongside political activists including Amie Beth Dickinson to present the Equality Proclamation. The document, signed on the 158th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation's signing, argued that the tactics and locations of abortion providers like Planned Parenthood were racially discriminatory. According to a document distributed by the group, King and the other signees believed that “the targeted practices of Alabama abortion providers are both discriminatory and disproportionately harmful to black mothers and their babies” and that a legal case could be made against abortion using the Tenth Amendment.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alveda_King


    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/identities/2018/1/19/16906928/black-anti-abortion-movement-yoruba-richen-medical-racism


    The assertions that being anti-abortion is about misogyny and control and nothing else, are grounded in the same beliefs that people who are anti-abortion don’t care about women and children.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,636 ✭✭✭Pa ElGrande



    Frankly, I had thought that at the time Roe was decided, there was concern about population growth and particularly growth in populations that we don’t want to have too many of.” source

    The Eugenics motive has never been far away from the abortion debate, even the late Ruth Bader Ginsberg stated that she believed that others' concerns about overpopulation might have influenced the US Supreme court's decision in Roe v. Wade. To put that in context the popular environmental concern in the late 60s/early 70s was the Malthusian over population scare. The eugenics aspect of population control has in decades since abortion was legalised blended into the climate change scare.

    Net Zero means we are paying for the destruction of our economy and society in pursuit of an unachievable and pointless policy.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,606 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    That just an empty appeal to authority and nothing more. The people who speak loudest about being allegedly pro-choice are conspicuously silent when it comes to the suffering and murder of actual human beings. That speaks volumes.

    I was on this site for the 2018 referendum. I got a pretty good look at the anti-choice side's motivations and no amount of disingenuous image dumps or quotes will change that.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,606 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    If we're going to dump quotes:

    The unborn are a convenient group of people to advocate for. They never make demands of you; they are morally uncomplicated, unlike the incarcerated, addicted, or the chronically poor; they don’t resent your condescension or complain that you are not politically correct; unlike widows, they don’t ask you to question patriarchy; unlike orphans, they don’t need money, education, or childcare; unlike aliens, they don’t bring all that racial, cultural, and religious baggage that you dislike; they allow you to feel good about yourself without any work at creating or maintaining relationships; and when they are born, you can forget about them, because they cease to be unborn. You can love the unborn and advocate for them without substantially challenging your own wealth, power, or privilege, without re-imagining social structures, apologizing, or making reparations to anyone. They are, in short, the perfect people to love if you want to claim you love Jesus, but actually dislike people who breathe. Prisoners? Immigrants? The sick? The poor? Widows? Orphans? All the groups that are specifically mentioned in the Bible? They all get thrown under the bus for the unborn.

    - Pastor David Barnhart

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,151 ✭✭✭✭JRant


    Not only is it premature, it's completely daft to see so many lose all sense of perspective, for, what is, a document that was never going to see the light of day in it's current form.

    Any of the other justices in argeement would have made edits, comments, recommendations, to this initial draft and it may not have even been the majority position by the time it was released. Any of the judges can change their vote right up to the time the decision is due to be released, as has happened in the past.

    "Well, yeah, you know, that's just, like, your opinion, man"



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,211 ✭✭✭✭One eyed Jack



    It’s a direct refutation of your criticism of authority, in this case the American right, on the basis that you claimed they were happy to see prisoners, black people and children murdered. I was giving an example of one of the most prominent anti-abortion activists on the American right, who refers to abortion as “black genocide”.

    She is not only unhappy with the idea that black people are disproportionately targeted by abortion providers, she also pleaded with the then President for clemency for 100 prisoners after Kim Kardashian secured clemency for Alice Johnson (later granted a full pardon by Trump) -

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alice_Marie_Johnson

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/403238-martin-luther-king-jr-niece-asks-trump-for-tidal-wave-of-clemency/amp/


    The allegation that the people who speak loudest about being allegedly pro-choice being conspicuously silent when it comes to the murder of actual human beings is a different claim entirely from the first one about the American right. I can’t think of any examples of whom you might be referring to, but it sounds like another attempt at guilt by association of a different group entirely, when the first allegation about another group doesn’t stick.

    I was on the site in 2018 too and I too saw some people’s motivations for their anti-choice positions. I don’t expect memes would change anyone’s opinion, certainly didn’t change my opinion when I saw graphic posters of unborn children pasted up on lamp-posts outside Supermacs Family Restaurants. I immediately reported them to Gardaí, no need for that sort of thing.

    For what it’s worth, memes of elephant and dog fetuses aren’t particularly clever either. All mammals will look similar at that stage of development, the difference of course is that we share more characteristics in common with human beings than we do with other animals, regardless of the fact that some people refer to their pets as their fur babies and place considerably more weight on their relationship to their pets than they do to other human beings. On those occasions I prefer to remain silent, they can generally tell from the expression on my face that I am not amused, but I don’t want to be rude 😒


    EDIT: that last point isn’t a dig at you personally ACD, I only just remembered you have a cat. It was a recent interaction with my boss where she took the opportunity to express her affection for her fur babies. It took her a few minutes to register the fact that I was quickly losing the will to live 😒



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The judgment is problematic because it will be so destabilising, and yes, pro-lifers ensconced in various legislatures will make the most of this opportunity, which is deeply unfortunate.

    I'll make this point however, and I hope it's not misconstrued, maximalisits on either side of this debate make it a really really horrible topic to discuss.

    For instance, I voted to repeal the 8th amendment because I believed that a restraining article in the constitution was suffocating a sensible and humane law on terminations. Having that article in the constitution restraining the Oireachtas was a pro-life maximalist position and had to go.

    What I did not want however, and perhaps this was inevitable, was my vote to repeal to be taken as a signal of a pro-choice maximalisit position. For instance, I remain deeply uncomfortable with terminations for socioeconomic reasons. But, that got lost in the victory march.

    The middle ground in the abortion debate is as intemperate place and you're as likely to have arrows fired your way as if you were on either extreme of the debate. And I concede that many people will tell me I have no business in saying that terminations for economic reasons are none of my business. I disagree, ultimately we are all custodians of our society and legal framework - and I don't think terminations for financial reasons are healthy for society or the individual availing of them. I've given that a lot of thought, and I can't see myself moving from it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭Igotadose


    But, we're talking law here. How would you 'police' the reasons for terminations?

    I take the 'trust women' approach. It's their bodies. I don't get to decide for them, they get to decide.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Edit: deleted. I recall contributing around the time of the referendum and regretted doing so. I'll stay out of it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,348 ✭✭✭nozzferrahhtoo


    I am not sure the "middle ground" is always a place you will get arrows fired at you though. I guess it depends which part of the middle ground you occupy and how you choose to express that middle ground.

    During the referendum debates I received a lot of praise for my posts on the subject, and push back from people who disagreed with me. But even had people who disagreed with me say openly or in PM that they appreciated how I wrote on the subject compared the more extremist posters, or the more vitriolic posters.

    However there was one aspect of the middle ground I tried to express over and over again. And I was thanked for it by people even vehemently opposed to my pro choice positions. And that was simply to acknowledge that pretty much all of us.... pro choice or anti choice.... want less abortions to actually happen in our society. Aside from some rabid and extreme anti natalists.... pretty much every man and woman wants less or ideally no abortions to actually happen. We just disagree on HOW to attain that ideal. I see that as a middle/common ground position and not one arrow has been fired at me for it (yet).

    As for policing peoples reasons for having an abortion.... I simply have never turned my mind to it too often. Given I can not find a single moral or ethical argument against abortion in and of itself.... I can not police peoples reasons for availing of one. I might find their reasons distasteful personally.... but I find it irrelevant in relation to my belief in their right to have one. Just like I protect your right to eat whatever you like foodwise even if you tell me you have a distasteful reason for it such as wanting to get so fat you can claim disability allowance. Your reasons there would disgust me, but I would still stand for your right to eat how and what you like.

    I am not sure what is wrong with making the choice for economic reasons. After all many people put on a condom for that very reason too and I have nothing against that. People have economic reasons for choosing not to become parents. Abortion is just one methodology for that. So if one were to have an issue with someone choosing abortion for economic reasons... one would have to have the same issue for ANY contraceptive surely? Or even abstinence?

    I did hear the rather obscene view posited on this forum once, which I can link to in PM if required, that abortion is an attack on lower class women because allowing such women abortion means they will not be compelled by their pregnancy, and subsequent parenthood, to better themselves. The same person seemed to take issue with single parent allowance or welfare and the like too if I remember right, but time is the enemy of memory on that one and I would have to check.

    Sigh. Where would women be without middle class men to motivate them to a better life, huh? :)



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭captbarnacles




  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭whatchagonnado


    The Internet has exposed that 50% of the population think people like Ben Shapiro are worth listening to and following. Frightening really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,862 ✭✭✭Economics101


    This thread is far too much about re-running the debate on the Irish 8th Amendment. Could we return to the US Supreme Court?

    The problem is that for decades, the appointment of Supreme Court justices has been over-politicised. In Senate hearings, nominees to the Court are questioned more on political and social matters, than on legal ones. There are also the recent machinations of Senator Mitch McConnell in refusing to even the consider President Obama's nominee at least a year before the next election, while pushing for the approval of President Trump's nominee to fill a vacancy mere weeks before an election.

    Given that the process is mandated by the US Constitution (Senate approval for Presidential nominees to the Court), the only real solution is a constitutional amendment. If you look at the supermajorities required to do that, than you should know its just not going to happen.

    So Roe V Wade is just one aspect of a Constitutional process which has been gamed and abused to death by politicians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,307 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    I really doubt its anywhere close to 50% those who support the likes of shappiro are simply an annoyingly loud and vocal minority



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Yep. They seem to think the conservatives are not supported at all yet they're red states.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Thanks neither did you just now.

    If you think you have evidence of something better or contradictory feel free to contribute it. Or not.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    That’s for Ireland. This thread is about the jurisdiction of the United States. As were the posts you quoted.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,156 ✭✭✭✭Foxtrol


    Pro-lifers in the US are a loud and vocal minority yet they hold incredible power.

    As for the impact of this potential decision - look at this coming out of Louisiana. Leaves the door open to the goal of charging those using over the counter contraception with murder. That is covered in another SCOTUS decision but it will definitely be on the table to move to overturn it by the logic at play with Roe v Wade.




  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,213 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I read an article about this last night where it discussed the potential problems that the removal of Roe vs. Wade creates for the GOP.

    Fundamentally , there simply isn't majority support for significant restrictions on Abortion - I previously posted the stats but in every single demographic grouping , the majority are ok with abortion "in most cases". Lots of nuance in that of course , but broadly speaking , people want access to the services.

    The only group that want to massively restrict/remove access to Abortion are the White Evangelicals who represent only 15% of the US population.

    The GOP have pandered to this group since Reagan when they were a much larger % of the US and have essentially been able to play the part for years comfortable in the knowledge that Roe vs. Wade was going nowhere.

    That allowed them to tell the evangelicals what they wanted to hear and sabre rattle away without ever pissing off the rest of their voters by actually removing Abortion.

    However now , after Trump filling SCOTUS with hard core fundamentalists , the GOP are potentially looking at the nightmare scenario of actually getting what they've claimed to want for decades.

    Across the board 60%+ of people in the US want access to Abortion and have done so consistently for decades.

    Multiple Red States already have laws in the books (again that they thought would never ACTUALLY take effect) that are wildly over the top and restrictive - There are multiple examples quoted in this thread - Laws leading to 20+ years in Prison for Doctors and Patients and more.

    They will now have to answer for that with their voters if this does to come pass.

    One thing is for sure , it's not going to win them any more support , far more likely to significantly damage them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,164 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    Abortion polling is very sketchy to say the least.

    Polling has said that Roe been overturned is hugely unpopular, but polling has also said that when it comes to 15 weeks the vast majority of USA folks favored that which is something RDS has signed in Florida.

    Some of the solid red states will obviously go more restrictive than that (and have), but 6 weeks for those in purple/soft blue states would never be adopted by Conservatives because it would be political poison.

    Regarding support the only base it may affect is the barstool conservative element who would have been with the GOP regarding Covid, "freezepeach" e.g the brigade who may listen to Portney, Rogan etc who lean left when it comes to this but after that its very hard to know until you see the final draft, anyone who says so confidently is in the echo chambers or is wishcasting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Republicans trying very hard to bite their tongues and keep the confetti in their pockets

    Despite working, openly and proudly, to overturn Roe for 49 years, those same Republicans seem gunshy about celebrating at all, just complaining that the leak may have politically jeopardized their victory lap.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That's all well and good in isolation but you're not dealing with a fully rational electorate, unless "rational" in the future includes some thought patterns that we've never heard of.

    Most of the Democrats' positions are supported by a majority of people. Between their messaging which is a massive issue and one that even after Trump got elected they seemed to want to do little about and the tendency of many voters to vote against their own interests the GoP just keeps getting back in. And they will continue punching far above where they should be able to for the medium term at least thanks to playing the game and pushing and breaking the rules which the Democrats tut tut and talk about democracy and principles.

    At the end of the day, how many at the protests were drifty voters let alone absolutely never going to vote for the Republicans? People apparently think they do better under Republicans (even though it's not the case) and tend to vote that way. If they'll be a grand a year better off under the Republicans (supposedly) then for the comparatively tiny amount of people affected a lot will say "Well, that'll easily cover the gas over the border" or "Nice, that'll be 10% of what I have to pay that stripper".



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,213 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Fair points - As I said lots of nuance in the statement of "support Abortion in most cases".

    But fundamentally, the majority of people want reasonable access to Abortion services throughout the US.

    The GOP have been chasing the evangelical voter base for years, which is particularly important to them in the Primary phase so they have been in an "arms race" of sorts to be the most vitriolic on the issue to keep them onside.

    The problem they now potentially face is that all that Rhetoric is coming due for payment.

    All those extreme laws that GOP Governors have enacted at State level comfortable in the knowledge that they would never actually take effect are now potentially going to go live on State statutes unless they change them.

    The problem is , if they now try to dilute them the evangelicals will burn them , but if the laws take effect every single other demographic will burn them instead.

    They are stuck between a rock and a hard place entirely of their own making.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 39,606 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The weird thing is that that demographic was never going to flip Democrat anyway and it's not exactly a source of electoral growth the same way as, say the Hispanic vote. By chasing them with such alacrity, they've alienated everyone else and this is a debt which will demand repayment.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 40 firminjo




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  • Registered Users Posts: 40 firminjo


    Will it be overturned?



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,213 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Demographically speaking they have definitely hitched their wagon to the wrong horse in the longer term.

    Evangelicals are a rapidly dwindling group and despite what you might think listening to GOP Politicians , religiosity in general is declining in the US across the board and its more rigid extreme forms are declining at an even faster rate.

    Right now, White Evangelicals are a wealthy, organised and influential cohort , but they absolutely have a rapidly shortening shelf-life.

    It's also why they are so rabidly focused on "Election integrity" as they know that the harder they make it to vote the longer the influence of middle aged White hyper religious people will be impactful.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    A thread I've noticed running through for years on a site I visit though which seems to have been shown to be wrong was the idea that the Republicans mostly pushed this crap without the intention of actually doing it, so they could always depend on evangelicals. I somewhat see the point the Republicans have always tried to portray themselves as the party who actually gets stuff done and this is a good one to prove it. For decades they've been ratfucking for this outcome and they finally got it.

    I would love to see a survey in 3 months to see just how many votes change. For all the shouting, let's be honest 90%+ of the protestors were never voting Republicans. Are any of the states with trigger laws in danger of turning blue? I very much doubt it. Wait a couple of years, normalise, chip away in a few purplish states. Then in a decade when people run on a pro-choice platform shout them down with "What about jobs? The economy? Terrorism! Whatever country the army is in now!" and it'll work again because the few percent of votes that might actually have changed will whittle down again.

    Obviously it wouldn't be great "messaging" right now but the democrats and their buddies need to cop. the. ****. on. and play the **** game. It's been going on 15 years that I can remember properly, the Democrats have the supports and even when they have the levers they never quite seem to do what a majority of, not just their voters, but the population overall support and voted them in to do. **** fund a few candidates even where they won't win. https://electoral-vote.com/#item-9 is a good example. The Democrats have given up on rural areas for a long time, basically told them their decline was inevitable and to get over it and guess what? The people told them to **** off. Get out there in all 50 states whether you'll win or lose. Come up with a 5-10 page easy to read and understand policy book that sticks for 10 years unless something massive changes and go from there. When it's a bit icky to gerrymander, get the **** over it. Delay everything the GoP want to do. The RBG replacement situation was hilarious, tragic, pathetic and worst of all 100% completely predictable. The "left" (because it's not the Dems and it's not even really the left) obsess about niceties and conventions and making points that don't actually achieve anything. Ginsberg held on because she wanted her replacement to be chosen by the first woman president. And now Row v Wade will be overturned. I've read bits and pieces about how the judges all claim to be above politics. Was RBG really that **** stupid to think that the fuckers sitting on the bench with her had any principles when it came to this nonsense? I dunno, maybe the Democrats will look at the Ukraine situation and finally realise or accept that when one party isn't behaving reasonably then there's usually little benefit to the other party to behave reasonably. And of course to harp on about what a great characteristic that is to have while a sect of religious and political extremists get to run the country.



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I've read articles from the 90s saying the same thing. Yet almost 3 decades later they're still getting their way. And in this case doing it in a way that likely won't be overturned for another 2-3 decades. By which time the support bases for both parties will have changed plenty. They're bastards, they're not stupid, by that point they'll have found another angle.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,213 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    I'm reminded of the Michelle Obama quote - "When they go low , we go high".

    That's great in debate club at University , but it's f%&k all use in the real world when the other side has no depth they won't plumb to get the win and no shame about it either.

    The Democrats have repeatedly failed to show the necessary organisation and stomach for the fight that absolutely has to happen and sadly it might take the fall-out from this and the next few dominos that will fall as a result of this change to force them to step up appropriately.

    I do genuinely believe that most of the GOP leadership (both visible and invisible) really don't want the religious extremism but they were absolutely happy to pander to them to get what they really wanted , which is money, power and influence.

    How they deal with the outcome of their rabid dog finally catching up to the car will be interesting to say the least.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 16,213 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    Sadly you are probably not massively wrong - They have the SCOTUS for at least the next decade if not more ..

    The accelerated decline in the Evangelical population has been very significant in recent years but the impact and influence will take longer to fade away for sure.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    “If you really like Donald Trump, that’s great, but if you don’t, you have to vote for me anyway. You know why? Supreme Court judges, Supreme Court judges,” Trump said at a rally in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

    {mosads}”Have no choice, sorry, sorry, sorry. You have no choice,” Trump continued, calling the late Justice Antonin Scalia a “great guy” and acknowledging tied decisions at the Supreme Court after his death.

    Trump said the next president “will probably have three, could be four, could even be five” appointments to make to the Supreme Court, alluding to the ages of senior justices.

    Trump dismissed critics who speculate he may appoint liberal judges and said if Hillary Clinton appoints judges: “You’re going to end up with another Venezuela. You’re going to be Venezuela.”

    Trump also pledged the agenda to appoint Justices exclusively to overturn Roe in the 2016 Debates.

    Meyers touched on a lot of these pieces of evidence in his monolog



    WALLACE: You just said you want to see the court protect the Second Amendment. Do you want to see the court overturn Roe v. Wade?

    TRUMP: Well, if we put another two or perhaps three justices on, that's really what’s going to be — that will happen and that will happen automatically in my opinion because I am putting pro-life justices on the court.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 85,182 ✭✭✭✭Overheal



    If you're going to plagiarize...

    "Nearly 40% of all abortions in America since Roe v. Wade have been from Black Americans. This equates to more than 20 million Black pregnancies aborted. That would be the equivalent to either the populations of New York or Florida. Yet Black people make up just 14% of the U.S. White people account for 35% of all abortions as the majority population in the country."

    Gary Franks doesn't offer any citations for this either.

    Reportedly, he was for abortion, until very recently when he adopted this theory that abortion is a racist institution. But he also supported Clarence Thomas and opposed the Civil Rights Act (one of them, anyway)? I'm sure he has a very interesting newsletter but as a politician no less and someone with opinions which may not always have been rooted in fact, I don't think people should just take him at his word, IMHO. I'd like to see the sources.



  • Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Tbf we touched on this subject disparity in secondary school ....its long time known......peoples motives/sudden concern around it can be questioned,but the disparity is still there and same across income catagories





  • Site Banned Posts: 2,799 ✭✭✭Bobtheman


    Personally I believe it should always be left up to individual states.

    Because of its the difficulty of passing constitutional change there would never be a population wide referendum like in Ireland.

    Thus leave it to individual states to decide rather than imposing something on them with all the difficulties that has caused.

    Eventually population shifts or the decline of the republican party might bring change in individual states.

    It's amazing the concern for the unborn in both Ireland and some states given the indifference to poor children in both jurisdiction.

    Don't get me wrong abortion is a terrible thing and more should be done to prevent it but until we create a society that really values kids - it has to be an option for women



  • Posts: 25,611 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    But here's the thing again, it's all workable, but only one side will get their hands dirty. RBG wanted some silly personal legacy and finally gave the people she'd spent years with a chance to get their way again. And seriously, when it comes to courts anyone who has any faith in them shouldn't be taken seriously. Talking about the judges getting done for perjury, come on the ****. Lawyers, solicitors and barristers will tell a jury who just watched a 4K video of a defendant holding his drivers licence with a copy of the day's paper while shooting someone that their client is not guilty if that's what they're told to do. So I'm sure they can come up with some bullshit argument or simply say they've changed their views since. These fuckers set up the system for themselves remember. The legal system is for the benefit of the legal profession, not the people or the nation. That applies here as well as the states.

    In 20 years things will have changed again. And the Democrats' hilariously naive assumption that a bunch of Mexicans crossing the border will finally make them dominant will either pan out or peter out. I think the split is currently roughly 2:1 in the Democrats' favour, and that won't take long to change when the Republicans feel they have to. At the same time the level of delusion among the left is alarming. The amount I saw cling to "Trump only won by like 70k votes in 3 states" but not entertaining the fact that 4 years later Biden won by 43k votes across 3 states (It's a silly argument but illustrative). They ran 2 elections against a **** clown and lost one and only just won the other one while gaining nothing in the other races. Democracy is a great system in principle but it requires engagement from the bottom up and while I'm sure the democrats feel like they need to make the most of the outrage right this moment I doubt it will help them that much in the medium term.



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