Russian build up along Ukraine

That presumes all of those systems were fully functioning, switched on and ready to engage with a crew prepared for such an attack. Everything we’ve seen from the Russian military so far would bring at least some if not all of those into question.

No the missiles that the navy have been launching aren’t the type carried by the Moskva, she would still have been fully loaded (or at least should have been, god knows the Russians could have sold them off), might explain the eagerness to abandon ship if there was a chance of a cook off. Think the growing consensus is that it was large scale internal fire that killed her, but as you say she’s gone now.

The Russian fleet has backed off from Odessa and the chances of an amphibious assault all but gone after this. Meanwhile reports of a chance that Ukrainian forces might repeat the Kyiv style counterattack and threaten the Izyum attack, though Ukraine is reporting they believe the new attack in the Donbas region is starting.

Depends on a lot of factors, they’ve backed off from their earlier close positions, in the meantime the Neptune missile was only just entering service for Ukraine, how many do they have operational (I’d guess not many given the earlier targets), and while the U.K. for one has promised ASMs, I don’t think any have arrived as the old Harpoons have to be converted for land based launches.

Given Russian performance so far in this war, I’d imagine they aren’t even close to the Israeli level.

Since before the actual attack on Ukraine, and the much publicised " we are not going to attack" phase, we have had a continuing demonstration of Russian treachery in conducting the war even to the point of appearing to sign an agreement to free up Ukrainian grain exports, to alleviate world hunger, and then targeting Odesa within 24 hrs of the signed agreement. They switched on Gas to Europe a few days ago and then reduced it to 20% the next Day. They encourage calm by saying we are concentrating on Donebas and then rain terror down on population centres miles from the battle zones. They cannot be trusted now or ever in the future.

Looks like Russia is being routed in Kharkiv over the last few days.

While the Kherson operations is going slowly, the Kharkiv operation has blown a massive hole in their lines and likely to lead to the withdrawal out of the South of the Kharkiv region. It seems they have no operational reserves in the area having stripped them to support Kherson.

Ukrainian forces have taken Izyum this morning (it took the Russians the better part of a month to take it), further reports of Russian forces basically collapsing in the area, huge amount of stores and equipment being taken by Ukrainian forces.

Between some reports of 10K potential POWs in the Kharkiv pocket along with the 30K or so in Kherson that are relatively cut off from retreat Russia potentially could lose a huge chunk of manpower along with massive amounts of equipment and munitions no matter what. Along with the KIA/WIA they have already taken in the 6 months, the Russian options are swiftly narrowing.

The Ukrainians are going to have to pause at some point, they won't want to pull a Russia and outrun their logistics or run their troops into the ground, there's also the Autumn rain and mud to come soon limiting advancement, but they have still pulled off a hell of a counteroffensive.

Some mixed reporting so far on what has happened (as you’d expect), the town where the missile hit is part of a “turn” in the border between Ukraine and Poland, the missile could have been intended to “cut the corner”, also some reports that it might have been a single Russian missile and a Ukrainian S300 interceptor that hit it.

Doubt it will be Article 5 but some reaction is likely

Indeed, the issue is the NATO members don’t exactly have a huge surplus of heavy SAMs standing by. How many more systems might be available, or maybe the US could pull the ones going to the Saudis?