Stormont Election 2022

Mr.Nice Guy · 06-05-2022 5:17pm

It's pretty depressing that the UUP appear to have suffered a bigger hit than the DUP. Danger now is that this further emboldens unionist parties to become even more intransigent and uncooperative. Serious questions now as to whether unionists more widely are interested in power sharing if SF have the First Minister spot, and if they're not, what then?

josip · 06-05-2022 5:18pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024624#Comment_119024624

Good point, I was working from Gavin's spreadsheet. That would explain the disparity.

Larbre34 · 06-05-2022 5:29pm

Let's be honest, Unionists would be more than delighted to live with direct rule from Westminster and local Councils only in NI, in perpetuity.

Itssoeasy · 06-05-2022 6:09pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024716#Comment_119024716

Well it would preserve the union in their minds, but from the videos I’ve seen that RTE filmed of voters, they seemed to want the cost of living issue and other run of the mills issues to be addressed which is fair enough because direct rule or not, those issues aren’t going away in the short term.

SouthWesterly · 06-05-2022 6:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024672#Comment_119024672

Donaldson said earlier that he's not nominating anyone to the post so there won't be an assembly.

He stressed he had 7 days to inform Westminster if he was keeping his seat there or not

Larbre34 · 06-05-2022 6:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024847#Comment_119024847

They probably should have voted for parties not preoccupied with the abstract so.

Christy42 · 06-05-2022 7:02pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119023944#Comment_119023944

Not looking like a million miles off. Just going by first preference (so a lot can change)

SF 29

DUP 27

AP 15

UUP 9

SDLP 6

TUV 2

Ind (both unionist) 2

So near as I can tell 40 unionist, 35 nationalist and 15 neutral but SF the biggest party. However potentially more important going forward is that it is at least 50 for the protocol vs at most 40 against it (I haven't seen Claire Sugden, an independent voice an opinion on it and the UUP seem to flip flop on it).

retalivity · 06-05-2022 7:16pm

Yer man Gavin whatever from the DUP that was on BBC NI earlier, as well as Donaldson both spoke to the UUP & about Unionism in general in very conciliatory tones, no doubt trying to get them onside. Made a change from the usual confrontational style, maybe they've finally copped that its the moderates that they should have gone after, not Jim Allister and his bible bashers.

pixelburp · 06-05-2022 7:17pm

SF received 250,388 first preferences, against 184,002 for the DUP; astonishing stuff. Not just on course for the most seats but generally the most "popular". Didn't they also have the same stat in our last general election, gaining the most 1st Prefs of all parties? Colours to the mast I'd never vote for them but one has to tip the hat to what has been a helluva rebrand.

Larbre34 · 06-05-2022 7:29pm

Their ground game is peerless, their vote management exceptional.

I would never vote for them either, but if other parties in both jurisdictions are not right now wargaming strategies to take that on, then they are fools.

breezy1985 · 06-05-2022 8:07pm

Who is this clown on BBC right now.

SF got 1/4 million and anti protocol got 1/4 so it's a 50/50 split.

Ya if you ignore all the other pro protocol parties

awec · 06-05-2022 8:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025222#Comment_119025222

The English guy?

Hes a political academic.

awec · 06-05-2022 8:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025038#Comment_119025038

Gavin Robinson. He is one of the DUP moderates.

That said, it was surprising to see him so conciliatory. He can be pompous when he wants to be.

breezy1985 · 06-05-2022 8:23pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025269#Comment_119025269

He has a clear bias whoever he is

pixelburp · 06-05-2022 8:24pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025077#Comment_119025077

The rhetoric throughout the campaign has been solid. They've stayed the adult in the room, ignoring the Border Poll trolling from the DUP and responding with the mature reflection that now wasn't the time, not with pressing issues today. Which is true: there's a serious cost-of-living crisis and the DUP ranting only ever made them look like cranks, SF like states-people. Not that the DUP have been blown out the water, but all SF has to do now is continue to speak for NI, let the DUP continue to rave. As the saying goes, never interrupt your enemy when they are making a mistake.

VinLieger · 06-05-2022 8:24pm

Scarlet for that returning officer who couldn't pronounce Michelle McIlveen, guessing the I and the lower case L looked too similar on her sheet

06-05-2022 8:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024716#Comment_119024716

Yep, and when it comes to the long-term the Nationalists should be happy. I know I know, 800 years etc. but keeping Unionists from unfettered power is the key. Run fairly from London with their massive subvention and we'll see Nationalists continue to dominate higher education and academia (big improvements came once Stormont was shuttered) and become the biggest block in the medium and long term. At the end of the day, as much as people lie about it, the result of the border poll when it happens will have maybe a couple of percent of voters actually up for grabs, it'll mostly just be a sectarian headcount.

Mr.Nice Guy · 06-05-2022 8:51pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119024883#Comment_119024883

Yes, looks like he's off to Westminster.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1522658375955271682

breezy1985 · 06-05-2022 9:06pm

Whats the best site for vote breakdown for NI ?

Larbre34 · 06-05-2022 9:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025308#Comment_119025308

Was that the wee limey girl? She made a balls of "Aontú" all day too.

breezy1985 · 06-05-2022 9:49pm

Poor auld Big Sammy looking very subdued on BBC

Edit: was back to himself by the end.

circadian · 06-05-2022 9:55pm

Sammy having an absolute car crash on BBC.

Larbre34 · 06-05-2022 10:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025493#Comment_119025493

As ever, the best places to see the detail is the Pol Corrs and academic wonks on twitter.

Here's the final vote share

breezy1985 · 06-05-2022 11:11pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025887#Comment_119025887

Belfast Telegraph had what I was after with full lists of every vote and round. Its got a really interactive breakdown of where surplus and the likes go

VinLieger · 07-05-2022 6:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025739#Comment_119025739

Gutted i missed it and cant find a vid of it anywhere.

Stephen_Maturin · 07-05-2022 10:16am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119026551#Comment_119026551

https://www.reddit.com/r/northernireland/comments/ujy7rg/sammy_wilson_accuses_alliance_of_being_secret/

breezy1985 · 07-05-2022 10:22am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027019#Comment_119027019

The Alliance member on the panel was having none of it. Shot the whole thing down with ease.

Christy42 · 07-05-2022 11:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119025739#Comment_119025739

I am not sure that he has had an interview that is not a car crash in his life.

The issue the DUP will have is that they are completely off the wall outside of the green vs orange debate. It will be hard for a neutral party to align with them frequently without alos going off the wall for the sake of balance.

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 11:28am

Sammy Wilson trying to portray the Alliance as Nationalist just because they don't agree with Unionists all of the time has vibes of the Putin regime in Russia portraying all of their opponents as Nazis.

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 1:06pm

What was the 8th Count in Strangford for?

Count 1: purpose: first count; outcome: Armstrong elected, Macartney & King eliminated
Count 2: purpose: distribution of Armstrong's surplus + the transfers of the 2 eliminated; outcome: McGivern eliminated
Count 3: purpose: distributing McGivern's transfers; outcome: Smith eliminated
Count 4: purpose: distributing Smith's transfers; outcome: Weir eliminated
Count 5: purpose: distributing Weir's transfers; outcome: McIlveen elected
Count 6: purpose: distribution of McIlveen's surplus; outcome: Harvey elected
Count 7: purpose: distribution of Harvey's surplus; outcome: ????
Count 8: purpose: ????

After the 7th count I would have thought that Nick Mathison would have been eliminated as he was 46 votes behind Conor Houston. Instead there was an 8th count where he passed him out and now Houston has been eliminated instead.

Icemancometh · 07-05-2022 1:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027673#Comment_119027673

I've no idea in this instance, but sometimes they do counts to see if someone can get enough votes for expenses.

Edit: sorry, I misunderstood you there. No idea.

BaywatchHQ · 07-05-2022 2:38pm

I don't vote due to my general misanthropy and dislike of individual politicians but if I had to I would have voted Aontu. Maybe I should spoil my ballot sheet at elections. I can't vote Sinn Fein due to their ultra feminist image nowadays and their general far left agenda. I don't really have a party to vote for. It also disgusted me what that Sinn Fein woman said in one of her historical tweets about "looking like a retard". I don't care if she was 19 when she made it, people who use phrases like that aren't what I want to be voting for.

breezy1985 · 07-05-2022 4:39pm

Looking almost certain for SF 28 DUP 25

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 6:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119027673#Comment_119027673

This is still bamboozling me. If you look at the total number of votes by each count the number of votes should always be equal or lower in every subsequent round - that's because extra ballots cannot be added into the system after Count 1, but they can be removed from the count in the case where they are non-transferrable.

Here's how the Total progresses by count (Note: If someone gets elected their vote total = the Quota in subsequent rounds to avoid double counting their surplus votes):

40,865
40,550
40,393
40,348
40,300
40,289
40,286
40,423
39,238

So in that mysterious Count 8 an additional 137 votes appear out of nowhere and are distributed to the 4 remaining candidates:

Nesbitt (+7)
Cooper (+2)
Houston (+21)
Mathison (+107)

This makes absolutely no sense but it was pivotal as Mathison leap-frogged Houston who was eliminated and Mathison was subsequently elected on the back of his transfers.

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 6:46pm

I looked up the official results site and found a spreadsheet showing the various stages. It explains how the figures add up but honestly it throws up even more questions than answers.

So, it seems that although Kellie Armstrong was elected on Count 1, they waited until Count 8 to distribute her surplus. They distributed the surpluses of the two DUP candidates, who were elected after her, before they distributed her surplus - that doesn't make any sense whatsoever to me. It does resolve the issue with the extra ballots appearing out of nowhere though - I had assumed that Armstrong's votes were distributed after Round #1

Edit: I think the way it must work is that her surplus was so small (204 votes) that it wouldn't have been enough, at any earlier stage, to bridge the gap between any of the lower order candidates. Instead they just eliminated them one by one and transferred their votes. After Round 7 the gap between the two lowest candidates (46 votes) was suddenly lower than her surplus so at that point they distributed it rather than eliminating the last place candidate.

I might be wrong but I don't believe they would have done it this way in an election in the Republic. I think they would have done the surplus and eliminations together after Count #1.

L1011 · 07-05-2022 7:05pm

edit after seeing the answer was on a page I missed:

No, we would have done the same thing here - you don't merge surpluses with elimination votes and you use the highest amount of votes available to transfer at a time. In this case it was the dual elimination.

Sometimes small surpluses never get transferred as they could never actually change the result.

retalivity · 07-05-2022 7:05pm

Cara Hunter was re-elected, lovely stuff.

petronius · 07-05-2022 7:08pm

Sad to see so many constituencies with NO Nationalist representatives now, East Antrim, East Belfast, Strangford, Lagan Valley & North Down. especially losing nationalists in lagan valley and upper bann

Brussels Sprout · 07-05-2022 8:37pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029182#Comment_119029182

If the non-designated parties are going to gain then it stands to reason that this is going to come at the cost of both nationalist and unionist seats. I believe that it's for the best in the long run that that happens. Having SF with the most seats is also good in that now it's no longer the elephant in the room and just another bridge crossed on the road to Northern Irish politics becoming less dysfunctional.

Sam Russell · 07-05-2022 9:23pm

I was looking at the Belfast Telegraph results where it shows every count. Now, it appears to be counting fractions of a vote.

That is not how we do it. No wonder it is taking a lot longer to count.

Charrychar · 07-05-2022 9:41pm

Sinn Fein taking power in Ireland, they started with a few rusty WW2 weapons in 1969 and now they are the most popular party in Ireland North and South.

Amazing how far they have come.

Mr.Nice Guy · 07-05-2022 10:33pm

Delighted that the TUV didn't get more than one seat. Jim Allister gets a disgracefully disproportionate amount of radio time on the Nolan show and no doubt will be there on the BBC on Monday.

bricksNDmortar · 07-05-2022 10:45pm

What a bloody 2 days. Absolutely delighted for every candidate who took the plunge knocking doors for Caral and GK the last few weeks.

Continual growth, North and South.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:05pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119029812#Comment_119029812

They transfer % of the votes/surpluses, not actual votes like we do - hence didn't they transfer a "zero" vote the geeks in the BBC I studio were salivating at it.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:14pm

I think it is bad to not have a nationalist presence in constituencies east of the bann, alliance are soft unionists, did they not designate themselves such once to bail out davey trimble

Pussyhands · 07-05-2022 11:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030255#Comment_119030255

This is something I asked before and no one gave me an answer on how votes are transferred.

In the South, if someone has a surplus, do they count all second preference votes and the distribute as a % of the surplus?

And how are votes transferred when there are people excluded? Do they look at all 2nd,3rd etc votes of all candidates and distribute the percentages amongst the total votes of the one voted out?

L1011 · 07-05-2022 11:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030281#Comment_119030281

On the first count, we count the lot and divide by the proportion

On every other count, they're taken off the top of the stack.

When excluded, the votes just go on what's next. There is no need to figure anything out, every single paper is moved.

We do however do fractional transfers for the Seanad vocational panel elections due to tiny electorates - the votes are multiplied by a thousand to avoid using decimal points!

Pussyhands · 07-05-2022 11:29pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119030293#Comment_119030293

That seems like a bit of luck involved so, some regions could vary a lot.

I still get confused. When the first person is eliminated are all second preference votes of those remaining counted and then the votes are distributed as a % of the eliminated persons votes?

Or is it only second preference votes of the eliminated candidate?

And if its a % of the eliminated candidates votes, is it % of the total valid votes or is it % of total votes, i.e eliminated candidates votes are excluded

L1011 · 07-05-2022 11:33pm

When a person is eliminated, every single vote is moved to the next person down. They are eliminated, the votes have nowhere else to go.

If those votes were first or eleven thousandth preference, they just move down.

No % stuff comes in to play. When eliminated, ALL your votes go to the next person down. If there is one.

Splitting stuff up only applies to surpluses when elected.

petronius · 07-05-2022 11:46pm

The funniest thing I heard from the Stormont Election when things looked worse for the UUP was, would there be any UUP MLA who had not already been leader! ( I think 1/2 of them have been now, Swann, Nesbitt, Elliot, Agnew )

As it is always a sectarian headcount

I make it 37 Unionists ( DUP/UUP/TUV/Sugdon/Easton)

and 35 Nationalists (SF/SDLP)

The Brexit supporting PBP more Nationalist than say the Socialist Party

Stormont Election 2022

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