Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Stopped clock is right twice a day :)

It would appear that shared ownership is dead in the water as only 25% of new builds are available for sale. One would hope that they would be purchased by people that can actually afford current prices

Nobody knows anything. Thats the whole point. predictions about the direction of the economy or the housing market long term are meaningless. They are all just guesses.

But one some things are certain. The price of property rises over the long term. The price of rent rises over the long term. You can fix your mortgage payments long term. You cannot fix your rent long term.

I posted in full the breakdown in previous posts. If we are constantly told we will build 30k houses, it's not misleading to say how many of these are available to the general public for sale. Shared ownership and help to buy are only available for new builds.

Is there a bit of a bubble in the West of Ireland?

I've been looking at asking prices in a variety of areas along the West Coast vs historical prices for same houses/estates per the Property Price register. In some cases I've noticed asking prices two and a half times what identical houses sold for in 2019/2020 and even as recent as 2021. The increases in percentage terms vastly outstrip the national average increases. Many of these houses are not particularly desirable and can't be explained away with just supply problems or those moving from urban areas working remotely.

For sure, some have been undervalued in the past but I'd be very cautious with many of these prices as I fear they could tumble dramatically. The economic foundations just don't seem sound. Some anecdotal conversations with Estate Agents would also suggest a slight softening is on the cards here, though they're still keen to play things up.

Don't worry folks - the conductor is not going to let this train slow down anytime soon

The state are going to subsidise developers to build apartments, to the tune of up to 120k per apartment - what do the government ask for in return you ask? Surely equity, reduced selling price, some stake in the development?

Nope, just 120k subsidies to enrich land hoarders who didnt want to build on the prime lands they held. 120k per apartment. Thats almost the entire construction costs covered!

https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

People will discuss and debate and disagree over the causes of the rapid increase in house prices in Ireland, but looking at the chart of the last 10 years, one thing seems obvious; it is unsustainable. I think the only people that think what has happened is sustainable are those suffering from normalcy bias but it is one of those things that will seem so obvious in a few years to everyone. Looking at this chart and not seeing something very, very wrong is, to me, to pretty much be blind.

And the abuse of the exchequer continues but dont disagree or even question it or you'll be somehow "blaming" some poor section of society besides the government. Pure madness and more can kicking.

The only unknown here is what (or combination of what) will finally tip everything over. Its a different magic money tree from 2008 but the belt tightening is going to seriously kick in soon.

Why would they have to sell to invest as you said the world is awash with money and nowhere to invest

"The real estate market is softening" 😆

How long were we behind the US last time? About a year maybe.

All the SNAFU nonsense will start soon enough from the banks / government. Then the flat out fraud. Groundhog Day.

Predicting a 19th crash in the last 4 years

More dirty laundry from Paul Hyde as an undeclared conflict of interest is now finally notified by him. To say there are links to FG with this cute hoorism is not to tell a lie and it would make you almost want SF to get into power so these cosy relationships that have resulted in quasi-nepotism careers will fall away and hopefully a lot of these gravy train guzzlers have to suck up to their SF "friends" or else abandon their cushy jobs.

The blatant corruption in our housing market is the reason we have a crisis. Supply is being artificially restricted by vested interests. Don't forget this.

Paul Hyde notified the board this week as The Irish Times and other media questioned whether he recused himself from the 2021 case taken by Caroline Barron in relation to the house she co-owns with her husband Stefan Hyde – Paul’s brother – in Sandymount, Dublin 4.