NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

This is tedious. Of course a 'border poll' and a UI are part of the SF manifesto. If you'd been around this site for more than a few minutes, you'd know that it's often said that a UI is effectively the primary one and only policy of SF. And they have a perfect right to have that as a policy. So do southern parties but it's not a priority issue to the same extent.

As regards this election though, SF were careful not to over emphasise the border poll question as such rhetoric was liable to drive votes towards the harder line unionist parties.

Well alliance won’t nail colours to the mast either way but Naomi long said if endorsed she would support a call for a border poll to settle the constitutional matter.

Don't follow NI politics closely, but my impression is most Alliance members/voters would ultimately fall into the Protestant/Unionist camp, however liberal & moderate, and if it came to the sectarian headcount of a border poll, they would revert to their tribal allegiance.

Interesting but I don't think it undermines my fundamental point that the the idea that rise of Alliance signals that Nordies of a Protestant/Unionist background are softening towards the Republic and some may be persuaded to vote for a UI is largely wishful thinking and that hence a UI via a Border Poll is likely still decades away

I think you’re right in some ways, but you also have to consider how the rise of Alliance (if it continues) affects the dynamic of cross-border politics. While integration between North and South has consistently deepened, a major impediment in that process has been the ideological entrenchment of political forces like the DUP who loathe Dublin and any involvement of Dublin in the affairs of the North or any other form of integration with the South — be it legal, political, economic or infrastructural. Indeed, this desire to keep ties severed was the source of the DUP’s disastrous miscalculation over Brexit.

That just isn’t going to be the case with Alliance. They will seek engagement with the South, they will not be approaching all-island initiatives with ideological suspicion, they are not going to be injecting firebrand British nationalism or Ulster Loyalism into everything. They are going to push for what makes sense for NI, and cross-border cooperation and all-island alignment makes sense for NI - especially now that the UK has made it clear that NI is nothing more than an inconvenient anomaly to them that they can gradually remove from the equation by alienating it to the extent they can get away with.

So I’d agree with you that Alliance voters aren’t just going to be UI voters in ten years, but we are definitely seeing a softening of Unionism even if still remains Unionism. But that softening is enough to imagine that we might be entering an era of further North South cooperation and integration — which may go some way in mitigating Unionist fears towards Dublin and indeed southern misgivings about those crazy Nordies.

I thought he said that without changes to the NIP , the DUP would not agree to form a government. It could well be that it's just a case of any old excuse not to form a government with Sinn Fein where SF is the largest party - a concept that must sicken Donaldson to his core and then down to his toes, but the reality of SF being the largest party would be undeniable. Refusing to form a government would only alienate the DUP even further from the ordinary people of NI who just want to get on with their lives, but as recent years have shown, the DUP cannot be said to be known for their political nous.

I do think it’s also worth pointing out, in response to the post you replied to, that Sinn Fein did in fairness actually put bread and butter issues at the forefront of their campaign. I didn’t give them my first preference vote but I would have to hand it to them, they got their tone right in this election and so far they are getting it right post-election.

By getting the result they got, they have absolutely outmanoeuvred the DUP and have plopped them right into a total cluster**k of a dilemma. If the DUP refuse to enter government with SF, they will look anti-democratic and bigoted (which wouldn’t have mattered much of a damn to them for years but now they risk losing progressive Unionists to Alliance). It will also harden Nationalist resolve and evoke old feelings of Unionists wanting to alienate Catholics from influence. If they do a u-turn, they risk further electoral defection to the TUV and the reality of an Executive with strong SF and Alliance influence to contend with. If they push for scrapping the Protocol, they risk continuing on their recent path of delusional thinking on this which has made them look utterly idiotic to their moderate base — while also more or less unwittingly demonstrating for all the world to see just how happily Westminster will stab Loyal Ulster in the back at every turn.

They are in an absolute hole, which they have entirely dug themselves into, and Sinn Fein have made hay. Seems like all they can do is push for some meaningless symbolic wording about the Protocol which they can hold up to their hardcore loyalist base as being something which means the Protocol is OK now.

Absolutely not.

I'm very much "Irish" and voted alliance. Many people I know voted Alliance.

You could say its a class divide - those with brain cells and who just despise the Unionism/Nationalism argument that is 30+ years past the best before date went with alliance. their candidates are also on the more intellectual side.

And this is not a "win" for sinn fein. With DUP in tatters, and a huge jump in young voters they only increased their share of votes be a single point. They did not gain any seats either.

Frankly it was a poor performance because they have done absolutely nothing for local people here that have really felt the hardships of higher prices, poor hospital care and drop in local services. Things sinn fein have done nothing about

Yeah, I think the basic story of this election has more been that a higher proportion of moderate DUP voters have gotten p*ssed off enough with their usual party to either vote Alliance or just stay home altogether.

Sure, he's not even going to take up his seat. He was squirming when Carruthers asked him about it. No chance.