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Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,581 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    I agree about Ahern! But, Niall Murray has been great on an average team! I think Molony has been the best 2nd row amongst the provinces this season.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think Molony has had a great season and really progressed, but I'm still more curious about the prospects of Thomas Ahern and possibly Joe McCarthy ahead of him I think.

    I've said it a few times now, but a guy I've been really impressed with in the past month is Jack Dunne. Not proposing him for an international squad, but feel he would have added value to any of the provinces, and it's a shame to see him heading to Exeter.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,808 ✭✭✭b.gud


    Someone mentioned in one of the other threads that Connacht approached him but he choose Exeter instead



  • Registered Users Posts: 367 ✭✭OneLungDavy


    I wonder did Kendellan force his way onto the plane with yesterdays performance, he was superb. His snag on Dupont behind the gain-line late in the game was textbook 7 play. I'd like to see him focus on playing openside and master the position, he could be a phenomenal player.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,535 ✭✭✭RichieRich_89


    I have my doubts about Farrell actually taking a squad as big as 42 to NZ. That's bigger than Gatland's British Lions squads, although interestingly the squad for 2017 was bigger than in 2013 and 2021. Maybe getting replacements to NZ is trickier, so it makes sense to go bigger initially. Anyway, I've had a stab at picking a squad, assuming he does take this larger than usual panel...

    LH: Andrew Porter, Cian Healy, Jeremy Loughman, Josh Wycherley

    H: Ronan Kelleher, Dan Sheehan, Rob Herring

    TH: Tadhg Furlong, Finlay Bealham, Tom O'Toole, Martin Moore

    SR: Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan, Iain Henderson, Ryan Baird, Joe McCarthy, Thomas Ahern

    BS: Caelan Doris, Josh Murphy

    OS: Josh van der Flier, Peter O'Mahony, Nick Timoney

    No. 8: Jack Conan, Gavin Coombes

    SH: Jamison Gibson-Park, Conor Murray, Craig Casey, Nathan Doak

    OH: Jonathan Sexton, Joey Carbery, Ben Healy

    LW: James Lowe, Mack Hansen

    IC: Robbie Henshaw, Fua Leiofi Bundellu Aki, Ciarán Frawley

    OC: Garry Ringrose, James Hume

    RW: Robert Baloucoune, Andrew Conway

    FB: Hugo Keenan, Michael Lowry, Jimmy O'Brien

    That's 43 players, so I have to lose one. I could leave out a lock or a scrumhalf, but I think I'd be tempted to leave Cian Healy out in an effort to accelerate the development of other options. Wycherley to me looks like he's the one who could be on a trajectory to break into the XXIII come World Cup time. Demented Mole were saying in their podcast that the fact he's on the small side hurts his chances, but sometimes a smaller player can be more physical than a heavier one if he's got good power-to-weight ratio and excellent technique/mechanics. Then you've got good players in Dooley, Byrne and Loughman. There's an element of flavour of the month to it when it comes to deciding between them. All capable players.

    I don't think Farrell fancies Moore, so maybe taking only three tightheads would be quite likely. Healy or Loughman could cover in an emergency. I like Moore. I think having him in the mix would add something to the squad. Farrell, coming from his rugby league background, probably thinks he's not well enough conditioned.

    A back up panel of the same size could look something like:

    LH: Edward Byrne, Peter Dooley, Andrew Warwick, Eric O'Sullivan

    H: Dave Heffernan, Niall Scannell, Diarmuid Barron

    TH: John Ryan, Stephen Archer, Jack Aungier, Keynan Knox

    SR: Ross Molony, Jean Kleyn, Kieran Treadwell, Niall Murray, Jack Dunne

    BS: Jack O'Donoghue, Cian Prendergast, Marcus Rea

    OS: Alex Kendellen, Scott Penny

    No. 8: Max Deegan, Rhys Ruddock

    SH: John Cooney, Caolin Blade, Kieran Marmion

    OH: Ross Byrne, Harry Byrne, Jack Carty, Jack Crowley

    LW: Simon Zebo, Jordan Larmour

    IC: Stuart McCloskey, Chris Farrell, Tom Daly

    OC: Stewart Moore, Jamie Osborne

    RW: Keith Earls, Tommy O'Brien

    FB: Mike Haley, Shane Daly, Ethan McIlroy

    Some good players in there.

    Most people would probably have JOD ahead of Murphy, I'm guessing. I'm a Murphy fan though. It sounds a bit like something Matt O'Connor would say, but I like his ability to dominate collisions. Plus, going for the most physical options possible in the reserve backrow (6. Murphy, 7. Timoney, 8. Coombes) would, to my mind, be a good way to compensate for the slight drop off in quality (Conan v Coombes debatable on this front) if you had to use them. I can imagine an ultra-physical backrow trio being useful in a French World Cup.

    Kendellen is really putting himself in the mix with his recent performances. I can't see them actually taking Murphy, so if POM goes as a blindside that would open up a spot for him as an openside.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Poorside


    Thats a massive squad, don't think we'll see 4 9's go, 6 SR's is probably 1 too many as well, I doubt Conway will go as he hasn't played much this season and seemingly was still limping on Saturday.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Josh Murphy is insanely overrated

    O'Donoghue and Prendergast are far better options at 6



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭BoardsMember


    What's the sense of bringing Sexton? I'd much prefer to see us forced into giving game time to other 10s. I know it very much compromises our ability to compete or win the series. But we need to give game time in big games to other 10s. We'll learn so much more about this team if we don't bring him.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭TRC10


    What's the sense of bringing Sexton?

    This cannot be a serious question.

    The only thing we'd learn by not bringing Sexton, is that the other options are nowhere near as good, which we already know now. So we'd actually learn nothing by not bringing Sexton. We'd essentially just be forfeiting a chance of a test win in NZ. Carbery has been given plenty of game time over the last year. 4 starts out of a possible 10. If he hasn't established himself as a viable option in that time, it's nobody's fault but his own.

    And fwiw I think Carbery has been good lately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭BoardsMember


    We already know the others are not as good, that's not learning.

    The alternatives will hopefully improve with game time, that's the reason to leave Sexton behind. They need as much game time as possible to used to playing for Ireland, to feel as comfortable as possible. Currently they aren't used to it. That's not a good situation.

    I agree re Carbery being better of late, I'd assume that if he gets more game time he'll continue to improve. Leaving Sexton behind is the way to make that happen.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭Must love hardship


    I'd potentially leave Sexton at home. For 5 reasons.

    1. The 22/23 season is going To be a long one. Giving him a summer off and a proper pre season may stand to him to have the body right for the WC.

    2. It gives us a look at 1 or 2 other potential captains and leaders.

    3. It gives us a chance to took at other options at outhalf.

    4. A hypothetical but It prepares Ireland for the potential scenario where Sexton goes down with an injury before a WC Quarter final.

    5. It's a 5 game 3 test tour of New Zealand. Is he durable enough for it??


    On yhe flip side. Id bring him because it's a 3 test tour of New Zealand and he is our best option at 10 and captain and we need to find out about his durability.

    He wasnt brought on the lions tour because there was worries over his durability and he hasn't been fit for all games in the last 2 years nations.

    You can't out run time..



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    OK, we leave Sexton behind.

    Next question, who do we bring?

    Carbery is going for sure. Then after that, you have a peloton of about five guys, none of whom is significantly better than the next guy and none of whom look like being better than a 38 year old Sexton in September 2023.

    So who goes?



  • Administrators Posts: 53,835 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Sexton will go but someone else needs to be starting the test matches.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,483 ✭✭✭BoardsMember



    The fact that they are all in or around the same level doesn't make it the right decision to bring Sexton. Neither Carbery or Sexton have shown themselves to be particularly durable, so we're going to need a 3rd OH either way, one would assume. The issue is not that these guys will be better than Sexton in the RWC, it's that we need guys to have played in green a few times by RWC because we can be sure Sexton won't play all matches, so we'll need 2 others ready to go.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭TRC10


    I'd imagine Healy will go as no.3 and start both games v the Maori. That's probably what I'd do too. I think he's come on a lot this season and added a lot to the attacking side of his game.

    Although I wouldn't be totally averse to taking a punt in Frawley.



  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭tvpc


    He wont make the Connacht team and is a penalty/card machine. Leinster are replacing him with a much better squad player in Jenkins.



  • Registered Users Posts: 739 ✭✭✭phily2002


    How many cards has he got?

    Think he'll make the Connacht team, seriously physical player, people calling him seriously overrated is strange. He's been really solid for Leinster and put in lots of big performances, just unlucky he's a number of Irish players in front of him.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,596 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    3 yellow cards in his 5 year career.

    on average a yellow card every 14 games.

    not exactly a card magnet.

    prendergast curiously is on a yellow card every 6 games.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,106 ✭✭✭✭Interested Observer




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,941 ✭✭✭TRC10


    I just don't see it. He's not a better 6 than Prendergast and he's not a better lock than Fifita, Thornbury or Murray IMO.

    He's not a "card machine" but he is indisciplined and prone to moments of clumsiness



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    What is the minutes-per-card stat tho, syd? That'll be an altogether more accurate stat, if you're counting sub-appearances in there?

    EDIT: Just from a cursory look, most of those stats look wrong to me, other than the 3 yellows.

    Post edited by aloooof on


  • Registered Users Posts: 739 ✭✭✭phily2002


    Found this but not sure how accurate it is:


    has him for 3 yellows in 60 matches. 3409 mins. Definitely not a card machine as stated above...



  • Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Why? He’s the best 10 Ireland has by a country mile. If there was someone close to him you could absolutely make a case but there simply isn’t at the moment.



  • Administrators Posts: 53,835 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Cause it'd be very short sighted, but you're right he'll probably play. We already know what'll happen.

    June 2022, Ireland start Sexton in 3 games against NZ that have limited value.

    September 2023, Ireland regret the fact that their other halfbacks lack experience against top teams. "We played them as much as we could, there's nothing more that could possibly have been done!", boards rugby posters will insist.

    Barring an absolute miracle, Ireland are going to be heavily reliant on Joey Carbery at the World Cup. If we are in denial about this, or if we fail to prepare him as much as possible, then there can be no excuses when we fall flat on our faces again. The Six Nations is one argument, these summer tests are a different story entirely.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,596 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    There's 80 minutes in a game, so multiple the number of games by 80 to get the minutes per card.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Not quite what I mean syd, and that would be misleading. To give an extreme example to illustrate the point:

    • Say Player A has played 60 games, gotten 3 yellows, but only come off the bench for 2 mins of every game.
    • And Player B has played 10 games, gotten 2 yellows, but has played 80 mins in each game.

    By your metric, Player A gets on average a yellow every 20 games, and Player B gets a yellow ever 5 games.

    But Player A on average, gets a yellow every 40 mins of rugby he plays. But Player B is every 400 mins.

    The latter metric is more transparent.

    In any case, all this is academic; for the NZ tour, with a view towards the RWC, I think it’s unlikely Josh Murphy will be selected when you consider the alternatives.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭Former Former Former


    In fairness, on our last tour to the SH, Carbery started one test and Sexton two.

    Ideally we'd see that reversed this year but even seeing Carbery get one test start would be good enough. That would be added to his starts against Argentina, France and Italy this season. He's getting enough game time, hopefully it continues.



  • Subscribers Posts: 41,596 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Josh Murphy rugby stats

    https://all.rugby/player/josh-murphy#:~:text=Occupied%20positions%20by%20Josh%20on,%2C%20Lock%20%234%202%25%20)

    overall minutes 3409

    3409/3 yellow cards = 1136 minutes per card.

    1136/80 = 14.2 games per card (as i said)


    i did make an error looking at Prendergast as i was looking at his URC 21/22 stats only, and not overall.

    Prendergast is on a yellow every 11 games



  • Administrators Posts: 53,835 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    Personally I think Carbery needs to start all 3, and Sexton can bench them all. I've no problem Sexton coming on with 20 to go or whatever, but I really think Carbery needs the continuity and responsibility of starting those 3 games.

    It's too late now to pivot away from Carbery for the WC, the eggs were put in his basket so we need to just go with it. But beyond that, it's getting close to ****-or-get-off-the-pot time for him. If he wants to be something more than a stop-gap for Ireland he needs to dig out some performances he can hang his hat on.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,597 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    Ah fair enough, not that much between them at all so, especially given the sample size.



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