Ireland Team Talk XII: Farrell's First Fifteen

Frawley goes as a 12, Carberry has been playing well with Munster for the last few games and Ross Byrne is next best on form. I know lots of people here say Byrne isn't a test ten, plays too deep, etc. But he's been playing extremely solidly for Leinster and knows many of the Irish players inside out. I'd agree that not having Sexton undermines our chances of winning down there but at the same time if the team is going well enough to beat the ABs in their own backyard then I wonder if Sexton's absence would tip it. He's lost plenty of times to the All Blacks. Leaving him at home maybe opens up a slot for Healy too. And whatever about this tour, I'd say now we really need to have one eye on the WC and at least one other ten will likely start at least one vital game in France. Playing other tens is now less about seeing how they go and more about giving them high pressure experience as starters.

I would bring in Ben Healy. At least on the bench. Start Sexton for game 1, with Healy in the 22 shirt. Game 2, start Carberry with Sexton in the 22 shirt. Game 3, start Carberry and Healy in the 22 shirt. Ross Byrne is decent as is Burns and Carty but, I think Healy could get past them soon. HB will need a complete injury free run next season. He has too much ground to make up, I don't think he has enough time to make the necessary strides.

I don’t see any evidence that carberry offers anything R Byrne can’t do, we do know that Byrne is a lot more robust and can stand up better to the challenges of physical matches week in week out.

There is nothing Furlong can’t do

Don't think we'll bring 8 half backs. JGP, Casey and Murray are enough at 9. And one from Byrne or Healy will travel at 10. If Frawley travels he can be used as a 10/12 hybrid if necessary.

Also think only one of Timoney or Kendellan will go too. Probably the former. He has been in multiple Ireland training camps.

Then you can bring the three hookers missing.

Sexton will start at least 1 game in NZ. And rightly so. There’s more to consider here than just who is playing 10. If we go down there and win at least 1 Test then that’s just another box ticked to help push this team on. Not many teams have been able to get even that 1 Test win.

I think we’ll see Carbery start the first and Sexton start the second. If we’re in with a shot of winning the series after that then Sexton will start the third game. A series win in NZ would be massive and we’d be mad to turn the opportunity down. How many others have managed it? IIRC France did it in the 90s and that’s it. The confidence something like that could bring would be massive.

The situation at 10 is very much a known at the moment. We have Sexton. Then we have Carbery who needs to put together a run of consistent performances. 3 games in NZ isn’t enough for that. But if he can deliver even in 1 Test there it’s a big step forward from a confidence perspective. Then we have a group of guys who aren’t at the required level. No doubt someone will start the Māori games. I’m fecked if I know who that will be. But whoever is 3rd choice needs to be stepping up at provincial level. If they aren’t doing that and/or can’t do that then they won’t be doing it at Test level any time soon. Sure we need a 3rd choice 10, but the reality is that what we really need is a player to step up to be that 3rd choice. Nobody is doing that yet.

Sexton was injured. But the difference between Jackson then and Carbery now is that Jackson had consistently performed extremely well in the season prior to that tour. He was staking a claim on a weekly basis with his performances for Ulster. Bar the Exeter game where he was fantastic, Carbery hasn't really done that.

Jackson also got his chance and grabbed it with both hands. He didn't need game, after game, after game to "improve" and "gain familiarity" before looking like a test quality 10. He got his opportunity and he took it.

The world cup surely is more important than a series in N.Z? I think depth building should be the focus. The kiwis will probably bring in some new lads. I'd like to see us get Casey more minutes and get Doak into the system. A new loosehead to play the Maori team. Loughman has been impressive this season. He's a good scrummager and looks decent in open play. I think Ross Molony deserves an opportunity too.

I can't wait for this series!

The idea that Jackson proved he was test quality on that tour to SA is a myth. He had a very mixed tour.

By the time he played his last game for Ireland, he was no more proven at the top level than Carbery is now.

You can win the WC playing one, maybe two serious tests depending on your draw. To win a series you have to beat NZ twice in how ever many weeks. How many times has that happened, ever?

Being realistic, there's a better chance of us winning this series than there is of us winning the WC

In what way, would you say? If you take SA, they had to beat Japan, Wales and England to win the WC. They'd lost pretty comprehensively to NZ in the group stages and dodged them again in the final.

The draw is such a massive factor in winning the WC, we've seen that repeatedly. We're facing the prospects of having to win a knockout game for the first time ever, versus NZ or France. The odds are not in our favor.

How many teams have beaten NZ twice, in a short period of time? France are the only country with a tour series win down there iirc in the last 2+ decades.

I'm not looking to downplay winning the WC, but I do feel it would be a real missed opportunity to fail to go all out to win the series in NZ. England laid the groundwork for their WC win with wins down under.