Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Explain how a reduction in share price translates to a reduced workforce especially when the companies were over valued due to first time investors pumping the stocks for 2 years and not knowing their arse from there elbow when comes to looking at the financials of a company.

correlation and causation are not the same thing

It would be a mistake to believe that the rise in share markets over the last 2 years was solely as a result of first time investors.

Tina and zirp for a decade rather a more likely cause. Are bonuses linked to share price in these companies

Dublin ghost rail station completed in 2009 will probably cost the same price to refurbish as it cost to build. Greenfields as far as the eye can see surrounding the station

Sums up alot about what could have been done in the last decade to help ease the housing issue

Correct, they do not, however they are an indicator of potential growth. Most of these shares dropping are as a result of poor earnings reports across the board. Many tech companies not meeting growth targets - others actually seeing declines.

The other thing about rate rises is that the cost of finance goes up, and more expensive borrowings mean less scope for growth and borrowing costs become a significant factor. The era of free money was great for growing a business - that era is over. Growth rates we saw in the past are over. Less money to R&D, less new jobs, more focus on squeezing short term revenue streams.

And where did I say that they were?

NASDAQ rising by so much is largely due to funny money injected into the economy during covid. The reductions we are seeing now are based largely on earnings reports however - investors all of a sudden think that many of these companies are (rightly) overvalued, or that their growth prospects are not good.

Housing is another asset class that was affected by cheap (almost free) credit and inflated away like mad, with a rate rise on the horizon prices will certainly dip, the question is how much. Since we still have a severe supply-demand dysfunction we wont be seeing anything close to a 2008 level crash, but mortgage lenders are going to have to limit the size of mortgages they can give out. Right now its all 3.5x income, with rate rises many would be buyers will find themselves limited instead based on mortgage repayments & interest rates rather than the LTV limits.

Finally, this sort of thing explains us dropping down corruption ranking lists.

An Bord Pleanála deputy chair steps back from role as separate probes continue

REITs are controlling the rent prices in certain areas. Example is D14 / 16.

They are leaving empty units, rather than reduce the rent. Check out Fernbank, Churchtown. 40% are empty.

As regards 2000 per month being the new standard rent. Even cost rental schemes at 1200... It's still too high. Take an average worker in retail.

I would expect some second order impacts though on the housing market here given we are told the salaries in tech are so high and plenty of the tech bros/sisters are getting part of their package in equity and not just salary in cash. These are likely late 20s early thirties and guys who got in early doors in Salesforce, twilio, Meta, Airbnb, paypal to name just a few have seen the value of their shares take a kicking the past 12 months. People may have already liquidated their shares and spent on property over the course of 2021 or else were eyeing up using their shares as a deposit over the coming years to get a nice gaff in South county Dublin which has less buying power now on top of a chunky mortgage approval amount. Will be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.

Rising rates means future profits are discounted…so even if a company had the same profitability and staffing levels the value of the company at today’s price would be lower. A fall in share price doesn’t mean a slow down for the company.

A recession or a slow down in consumer spending on the other hand impacts profitability and staffing levels.

Nowhere near a dell event, but a concern nonetheless for their limerick staff