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NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,971 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The date is getting pushed further and further out all the time. Shows a complete lack of confidence.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,771 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    I don’t see how you can accuse me of having no meaningful suggestion as how to “progress matters” when you seem to be advocating the further stagnation of matters. If you think something as relatively harmless as Irish language legislation cannot be progressed, then I fail to see how you think anything can be progressed whatsoever — how do you ever think future necessary and more fundamental steps (things like promoting more shared school education between the two communities) can ever hope to get off the ground?

    Being balanced in one’s view does not necessitate the whitewashing of long-standing bigotry and irrational paranoia towards the Irish language in the North. Even if unnecessarily we did want to boil something so utterly harmless down to a full-blown matter of democratic consent — SF, Alliance and the SDLP alone received almost 55% of the popular — all three of them, among others, are in favour of an Irish language act.

    If you want to advocate progress, I would start by actually advocating progress.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    Anyway no assembly as expected... MM will want to talk of GFA... Donaldson about protocol...

    All of the real conversation happen between EU and UK with US and i expect Biden will be sticking in the odd comment... I expect direct rule for awhile... It not be a big surprise if we have another big meeting in Belfast to sort this out... there is a new game which is not a surprise...



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ROFL

    If it helps you sleep nights, remain convinced of that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,682 ✭✭✭Seathrun66


    Every passing year increases the reunification vote. Demographics dude. It'd likely scrape past in 2/3 years, much more solidly in 7/8. That's infinitely preferable.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom




  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Yeh Neale, reach out to all while working tirelessly to keep the boogeymen out north and south.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,996 ✭✭✭✭briany


    There's a bit more to it than simple demographics. Not everyone in the North who is basically of a Nationalist/Catholic background is going to say yes to a border poll just because of that fact. There will be pragmatics who may not like the Queen but like the NHS or the Royal Mail. People who have a decent life going and wonder if a UI would introduce too many variables, like renewed fighting in the North or not getting as well subsidised by Dublin.

    We know that there will be your blocs of voters who already have their minds made up, but I believe it's the type of voter above who would decide the question.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,771 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    Well, as much as I am in support of the Protocol, the question still remains over the extent to which it will (1) return NI’s economy to where it would have been by now if Brexit never happened and (2) whether it will actually significantly pass that economic position. The UK has a distinct problem here in that, while NI can f**k right off in their eyes, Scotland is a different matter entirely. They have a careful balancing act to play to avoid a situation where any significant success NI might have under the Protocol causes huge agitation for similar treatment for anti-Brexit Scotland or fuel the independence movement there.

    NI’s political leaders and officials will not have direct consultation with the EU and so the ability of NI itself to influence or have any control over how the laws and regulations around the Protocol develop is stunted. Westminster will be in the driving seat there and they are not going to tolerate a gleeful advertisement for EU membership within their own borders or risk the ire of NI’s effective continued membership being seen as unfair treatment.

    The Protocol is, after all, designed to be a compromise to uphold the GFA, and this compromise is beneficial to NI in at least hopefully mitigating the damage of Brexit and then maybe succeeding even more than that. But the Protocol is certainly not intended to be an unconditional gift of love by Westminster, and it will not be treated as such.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,971 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It wouldn't be practical for Scotland to have the same deal as the Protocol.

    Northern Ireland in the UK can have the best of both worlds, with access to both markets. Think about it, if you are a new Intel, it makes at least as much sense and possibly more to locate in Northern Ireland than in the South. That is the first time this has ever happened.

    Why would anyone in Northern Ireland be stupid enough to give this up once the benefits become clear? No wonder Sinn Fein are pushing for a border poll now.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 27,971 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Demographics haven't worked. Even Francie has had to admit that the nationalist vote is down from the last election.



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    ROFL again.

    They were pushing one long before the Protocol or Brexit was heard of.

    Gosh you have had a bad day.



  • Posts: 13,688 ✭✭✭✭ Myla Obnoxious Axe


    DUP are strangling themselves.

    Best thing Sinn Fein can do is ignore them. Even the other unionist parties have had enough of the DUP.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,996 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Yep, they're being destroyed by their own stubbornness. Obviously, it would be impossible for Sinn Fein to ignore the DUP completely as they have to try and get Stormont going, but certainly they can ignore the histrionics of the DUP and watch the party struggle in political quicksand. On the NI Protocol, Sinn Fein are on the right side of history. It's something the majority of MLAs are in favour of and something the majority of NI citizens are in favour of. On that score, the DUP will just have to accept reality if they want to stay relevant.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    Don't ignore... try to work with them to work together for the future... be fair they are in a difficult spot...



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,245 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Progress in NI could be defined as a) not making things worse and b) not sticking your fingers in the oppositions eye all the time.

    Applies to all those with strong feelings on both sides.



  • Registered Users Posts: 11,245 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Just curious - are Sinn Féin 100% behind the current protocol arrangements??

    I've heard SF rubbish the DUP for not accepting 'the protocol' but that's a bit different than being fully behind it.

    Be great for NI as an entity if it is implemented fully, will put NI business in a strong place.

    Perhaps not so good for the Republic in some ways, could be seen to give NI a competitive advantage.

    But my question is does SF back the current protocol to the hilt?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    That is a weakness SF has... they often criticize when they shouldn't... Protocol set-up to faciliate Island of Ireland and considering they have a foot in both camps they are the last ones who should be commenting... basically for me its waffle...



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,543 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I seen on twitter that BBC are saying the alliance party is unionist to make the union bigger, thats not true aren't they like republican as well



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,996 ✭✭✭✭briany


    So if the DUP refuse to form a government and the UK government impose direct rule, what scope do they have to pass laws in NI? Because if they decided to punish the DUP by passing the Irish Language Act, this would be the DUP running back to Stormont to try and block it...





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  • Registered Users Posts: 18,161 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    No they arent aligned either way and are designated as "other" although it doesnt stope idiots on the BBC or members of either side claiming they are or they arent to benefit whatever the days political goals are.



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    If FF FG really wanted to help the SDLP (and they clearly do) they should give them a plan for a UI to promote. If the SDLP had that, it might take their mind of bitter swipes at other nationalists and Irish people and give them a positive to sell.

    On a sidebar, does anyone know if FF or FG congratulated MoN and the electorate on what is, by any metric a pretty historic achievement?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    Why would any political party in anhy country comment on whats going on in a different country... its perfectly ok to have aspiration for UI but when it comes to daily affairs our politicians need to focus on their own country...

    Of course involvement in cross border trade, GFA and fallow on from that, also foreign affairs etc.. I do not see Governments from other countries commenting on how we do our business... Why our politicians keep advising NI politicians on what to do i do not understand... i expect the politicians in NI including SF do not want advise from FF/FG...



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,971 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Are people precious about being congratulated?

    Maybe MoN should launch a defamation action over the failure to congratulate her, they are trigger happy enough when it comes to the courts.



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Funny, I heard an awful lot of platitudes and moralising about being inclusive around the 100 year Centenary.

    A tad mealy mouthed if not disgraceful that they couldn't mark it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    You mean the celebration that got cancelled i expect...



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,771 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    The Scots might not necessarily grumble to get the exact same thing as the Protocol, but the ignoring of Scotland’s pro-EU vote combined with NI getting “special treatment” only fuels the fire of Scottish Nationalists by pointing to NI’s potential success as evidence of Scotland’s mistreatment.

    The Protocol, so far anyway, only really has an effect on physical industry like manufacturing (it doesn’t really do much for non physical services)— which for an investor is a big investment into plants and machinery. The problem for a new Intel therefore is certainty in the long term. NI having the “best of both worlds” is one of those things that looks good on paper, but the inconvenient truth will also be that NI has little ultimate control of its own on what will be achievable under the Protocol — as Stormont will not be calling the shots at the highest level.

    The competitiveness of NI companies is already being affected within the internal British market by additional costs resulting from the Protocol while the Consumer Council of Northern Ireland has already estimated that at least 200 British companies have ceased sending products to NI since 2021. So as an already small and isolated economy, NI’s access to the market of 67 odd million population has been made more difficult, not less, which explains why NI exports to the Republic grew enormously by 65% (and 54% from the Republic to NI) in 2020. What that tells you is that there is already a gravitation and further integration of supply chains between North and a South.



  • Registered Users Posts: 69,155 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,771 ✭✭✭ArthurDayne


    That’s a pretty limited vision for what entails progress in NI though, but let’s roll with it:

    Why stick your fingers in the eyes of people who want to protect and preserve something as harmless as the Irish language via legislation?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,426 ✭✭✭maestroamado


    I cannot remember what the meeting was about... Minister for foreign affairs likely need to fulfill the role...



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