Football ranking table

Prediction model output for the first 3 games of the 2022 SFC.......I had hoped to update the previous format to something much sexier but didn't have time, so ye will have to do with what ye know. The model output does not, however, include the New York-Sligo game, because New York and my code didn't agree due to New York being 2 words and all other counties being only 1 word.....anyone that did a bit of coding will understand.....

• Sligo to win by 3 (which isn't much in the general scheme of things - New York into the semi-final? Sligo have done pretty well this year, but if they aren't concentrated, then a shock is on the cards)
• Fermanagh seem to either a) draw b) lose by 5 points or more or c) win by 5 points or more. 1982 since they have beaten Tyrone in the SFC, unlikely to change this weekend. Tyrone by 12 is the model output.
• Apart from a severe hammering by Sligo in Sligo, London went through the league performing between 4 and 14 points better than expected. And one of those games was a win against Leitrim in a neutral venue. Another Connacht shock on the cards? The prediction model is more conservative - Leitrim by 6

The "new and improved" boards did not want to take the PDF from the model output that I wanted to upload......are we restricted only to image files??

Leitrim by 6, sorry. I’ve corrected the previous post. Thanks 🙏

Updated ranking table after this first weekend's round of games.....

• No rating points exchanged in the Fermanagh-Tyrone game which is normal given the difference between the teams
• Slight gains for Leitrim and Sligo following close wins over London and New York, respectively
• Before anyone asks why Sligo gained 1.3 and New York lost 1.4 rating points, it's a rounding error!

Update of the ranking table after this weekend's round of shocks....

• Offaly were the biggest losers in terms of rating points, but Laois, Armagh and Mayo were not far behind
• Donegal jump into the top 3 for the first time since Nov 2020
• Laois win the overall award though - their worst ever ranking ever 😪
• Cavan justified their rating difference over Antrim, and no rating points were exchanged in the Louth-Carlow game

Update of the ranking table following this weekend's games:

• Not surprisingly, the Tyrone-Derry game provided a major shock to the ratings! Only on 9 previous occasions have 9 rating points being exchanged in a game. This only happens in the SFC, when the rating difference between the teams is greater than 15 rating points (3 rating points are added for home advantage) and the underdog wins by more than 5 points. Interestingly, Derry gained 8.9 rating points for their 2006 win over Tyrone! Derry are now 2nd in the the rankings, a position that they have not held since June 2008
• Limerick leapfrogged Down and Tipperary (an omen?) to move into 18th after their draw with Clare
• There was a minor gain for Westmeath following their bonus-point win over Longford
• No rating points were exchanged in the remaining games

I'm not posting any updates after this weekend's 3 games as there were absolutely no changes to the ranking table. The winning teams all had 15 rating points more than the teams they beat.

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's 4 provincial semi-finals:

• Tipperary have severely under-performed in their 4 previous meetings with Limerick but Tipp's recent form does appear a little more consistent. Home advantage seems to swing it for the prediction model.
• Where do Derry go after their spectacular win over the All-Ireland champions? Surprisingly, these sides haven't met in the championship since 2009 (when Derry twice overcame Monaghan). Given the large difference in rating points, the model is plumbing for Derry
• Kildare's form appears to be quite erratic whereas Westmeath appear more steady - however, Kildare have been playing at a much higher level than Westmeath recently. It's hard to understand how the teams have not met more than 7 times in the championship
• The Dubs are back, so they say. Whether they are or not, it is very difficult to see Meath getting near them in light of their current form - they have only exceeded expectations in 2 of their 8 games this year and one of those was marginal against Wicklow. Meath have beaten Dublin in 1 of their 13 previous championship encounters - lucky 14 doesn't have a good ring to it.

tl;dr

• Tipperary by 1.3
• Derry by 2.8
• Kildare by 6.2
• Dublin by 6.0

RT = rating score of each team before each game, without taking home advantage into account. The largest difference (or the greatest outsider win ever, if you prefer) was Cavan's win over Down in '62.............anyone got any stories on that one?

• Derry cement their position in 2nd spot following a fine win over Monaghan
• Limerick move to 15th, their highest since June 2013
• There were minor gains for Kildare and Dublin as they make their way to a Leinster final showdown

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's 2 inaugural Tailteann Cup games.........

• A 2nd ever meeting between Wicklow and Waterford in the championship. Both teams' form have been relatively consistent over the last number of games, but their form is based on where they are in the table. With almost 16 rating points between them, a big Wicklow win looks likely
• The surprise win over Offaly in the first round of the Leinster SFC is almost the only positive point on Wexford's copybook in 2022 (even if they did achieve narrow wins over London and Waterford in the league). Offaly were tipped to win that initial fixture by more than 5 points; even if the model is now more cautious, victory should be theirs the second time around.

tl;dr

• Wicklow by 8.1
• Offaly by 0.9

I don't have time this week to do a full write-up, so you are going to have to interpret the previous form of teams yereselves.