Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

He (Putin) must have factored it in.

I am thinking of the counterfactual where the war is a complete success, all goes even better than hoped. Most if not all of Ukraine is now pacified and occupied (maybe they would leave part of the West near Poland alone and allow it exist as a rump?).

It is all being "Russified" and a big pogrom/purge by Putin's security goons is well under way. Zelenskyy and the government are dead or fled. You'd have to expect Sweden and Finland and maybe other neutrals in the EU would be observing this with horror, and scurrying madly for the cover of NATO now.

For the Hungarian government to prioritise Hungarian welfare over all else is hardly surprising, if a little selfish.

The self-flagellation helps no-one, and will only make Europe weaker and the population more unhappy. If you wanted to foster pro-Russian (apathy towards Russians is more accurate) or anti-EU sentiment throughout the member states, coercing them into destroying their economies through oil embargoes is one way to do it.

As soon as citizens in EU start to feel the sanctions affect them, is when sympathy for the Ukrainians starts to disappear.

Self-preservation in the long run would involve building up alternative supply chains of oil for the bloc before any embargo is put in place, which would massively minimise any economic or other damage to Europe, albeit due to global market pricing there would still be a significant impact.

The cost of fuel will jump significantly following a european embargo being agreed - right now costs are only beginning to bite, unless this is all over soon (which it wont be) things are going to get a hell of a lot more expensive

Several countries are reliant on Russian gas, and of those, some more than others. This means they can't just "cut it tomorrow" without considerable pain. Therefore they are working to wean themselves off it as fast as is feasible whilst securing other supplies. The Germans estimate this can be done in around 6 months for them, give or take.

Hungary is different, breaking from EU consensus, Orban is relatively pro-Russia and seems happy enough to maintain energy ties with Putin. Also, as a land-locked country and due to various factors it's much more reliant on Ru gas/oil than most other EU countries.

Would expect the Hungarian oil imports can possibly be covered by others in the EU helping them + if not, they were already offered a reasonable derogation with extra time I think (+1 year extra, so end of 2023) to phase it out. Orbán still says no.

I believe it is an almost cost free way for him to help Putin/Russia, because there is not much the EU can do quickly to work around Hungary (will take a fair bit of time if it can even be done), so you have sad spectacle of Von Der Leyen having to lobby Orbán to agree to something.

He has no election hanging over his head, so he can adopt almost any policy positions he likes now. It will be very interesting to see what he does when those NATO membership applications from Finland and Sweden are finally made, if he has the guts to try and obstruct to give Putin more time to mount some kind of a response/deliver a punishment, despite how busy Russia is with Ukraine.

The German gas imports from Russia cannot currently be covered in full by anyone or anything (as far as I'm aware) (?)

Exactly, inflation and oil prices were already rising pre invasion, and most people were aware of that and didnt blame it on the invasion. An oil embargo will push prices outside of Russia for oil much higher, and people will realise that those increases are self-inflicted.

Feel free to go digging for any predictions you say I made, I dont recall that but it could well be true. I think you made predictions that the Russian war machine was due to collapses months ago also - these predictions are forgotten about almost as quick as they are made. Either way its irrelevant to the point at hand.

Sure. It's likely people will increasingly lose interest and/or want an end to the conflict as costs hit our pockets.

But so far, two and a half months in, we are still showing more resolve and more sanctions than the Russians ever envisioned or banked on. I'm pretty impressed with the relative EU, NATO and global solidarity on this so far.

I also think the weaning off of Russian supplies will become permanent for most countries, and in terms of economic impact, I'd rather be a German this christmas than a Russian.

A long time ago I read a James Michener book about the Hungarian uprising of 1958. Anybody who has ever read a Michener book knows the extraordinary detail he goes into. Whilst every book or history you might read will display the opinions or prejudices of the author the detail and facts cannot really be obscured by factual history. Hungary like any nation is complex, but being Irish a quote from that book stuck with me always "Hungarians friends call them the Irish of the East, and their enemies refer to them as The Prussians of the Balkans".

Is the average EU citizen not prepared to take a little ‘pain when one considers the unbearable pain being experienced by the majority of the 40 million UKranians - or is it a case of ‘ oh, I agree that it should be done but ‘ not in my back yard’ syndrome being alive and well?

A lot of people here are trying to debate the issue in a reasonable way. I realise that can be difficult, but please do the same.

This type of comment, which seems designed to try to shut down debate, is of no help at all.

Great article.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/putin-speech-ukraine-invasion-soviet-union/629825/

It describes similar stories I'd heard from my mother and grandmother about how "well behaved" the Russian "liberators" were back in 1945. They stole, looted stuff, brought horses to the villa my grandparents lived in, never saw a proper house with modcons in a European city in a developed country. Their horses made a mess, they made a mess, and behaved like occupants not liberators. And they stole what they could. Uncivilised, primitive boors.

My mother was 4 years old when the country was "liberated" in April/May 1945 (it was an occupation, if course).

As far as I can tell, the Russian army behaves the same today, nothing has changed since then.