Softening house market?

@Sammy2012 Surprised to hear that, we are with BOI and broke out of fixed, upped our payments , changed the term of the mortgage and finally re-fixed for 5 years at a higher monthly overall amount to shorten the term futher but leave us a buffer if need after the five years. All that took about four weeks. Though calling their support number always included a 30 min or so wait. The paperwork was very straightforward.

The war in ukraine will put a stop on things. Fuel is vastly more expensive than it has ever been before - a few thousand per annum added to your commute bill is a multiple of that out of your housing budget. Plus inflation generally running at 7 or 8 %. Of course interest rises are the biggest difficulty; but several factors coming together can kill the market.

Very true, I remember one of the uber-bears suddenly turned around in 2012 - about a year into the FG-led government - and called the bottom of the market. He was right, because a lot of measures were put in place to support the market by that government. I got the impression that he was well-placed to have an ear to the ground.

I think you might be mixing up two different things - the size of the market, and the price of the goods.

"The arse fell out of the market" to most people means that there was little or no market any more - people weren't selling, or people weren't buying. In 2006/7/8, it was a lack of buyers. This logically means that prices drop until they reach a level where people are willing to buy again. With a highly illiquid product like housing, this takes time. Most property owners try to wait the crash out, and only sell if needs must.

Please read my post again.

It's the ridiculous excessive bids that have started to pull back.

It won't affect a regular house in Dublin 15 yet. But it's the start of it.

Prices will not collapse, but the market will soften. The easy cash is gone.

Family member is working on building sites at the moment. He was saying that a lot of plumbers and electricians have very little to do but it's due to shortage of materials. There is a shortage of sanitary items for bathrooms and also wires and other things electricians use. So even though new builds are continuing they can't be finished due to supply issues. My local town has many estates under construction at the moment and plans for many more in the next couple of years but shortage of materials are having a huge impact.

I can tell you plenty of stories of people in bidding wars over the last few years. Some dropped out because they didnt want to pay more than a certain amount over asking. They are still looking now and are looking at smaller houses for higher proices than even what beat them out the last time.

Some paid way over asking and put their bid way up to secure a house. They are quite happy now to be in their own house and out of renting.

There was enough supply in 08, people were buying 2 or 3 homes, you would buy one and then flip it in less than a year and profit the increase in price. Pure pyramid scheme stuff, always reliant on price always going up. There was ample supply for the people who actually needed homes, the problem then was there was so much cheap money floating around that the demand for houses went up - people wanted to buy far more than they needed as investments and to flip.

That is not the case now.

The central banks LTI rules are the only thing saving us from a complete nightmare property bubble of catastrophic proportions. Anyone giving out about not being able to borrow enough due to LTI should be grateful - its themselves who are protected from mortgage default.

I don't see it, they just keep going up and up where we are. And the stock is of poor quality. High price for very standard housing which needs work. It's hopeless for us at this stage. Seriously considering giving up the job and having 1 person working and moving back in with the folks for a year or 2. No chance if building either, too much red tape. Welcome to Ireland 2022, where young Irish people are held in nothing but Contempt by their own government. Too much leftist nonsense going on. The only thing that remains soft in housing is the housing that is being bought and given over to social housing, paid for by those who have no right to it, the rest of us keep having the ladder pulled up just enough that it's bottom rung is just slightly out of reach. The more you save the more the price goes up. It's tragic.

That's it in a nutshell for me....single, 37, not a hope of purchasing a property I'd say. I've saved and saved for years, always missing the boat when it comes to being able to afford one and now that I have a sizeable deposit, it's still not enough as prices are beyond my reach again. Soul destroying.

I've read your "solution" many times, you seem to think that more debt is the solution, I disagree and will not be drawn I to an argument with you.leftist nonsense is what I said and leftist nonsense is what I meant, most people know what I mean by that statement, I'm not too worried whether you do or not!

I agree that the state/government is too left wing economically, we still have the xmas bonus for long term welfare FFS. But, I don't get the complaint about government holding young people in contempt. What do you mean? If you are expecting the government to help you out, it seems a bit, I dunno ... Leftist