Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

There are no rentals anywhere which means there can't be a lot of movement in the market outside of Dublin. Our pre-covid economic growth model is finished, unless you have managed to figure out how our economy will keep ticking over while there is no housing at all?

This is what will happen;

the transaction data will be first to show a fall (as stated before, the lack of supply will be blamed for the lower transaction numbers), then a MNC or few will make job announcements (hiring freeze or less new hires), which won't translate to data showing the housing market costs start to correct until some time after, but the correction in the housing market will happen. Interest rates, inflation and geopolitical struggles will be blamed and in 2/3 years SF will be blamed as well, but the market was never sustainable and this won't be touted as a reason for the correction.

Our economy is now on the downward slope and housing is a massive contributor to this; ie the lack of and cost of.

I received a Daft alert for a house in Naas this morning with a 6k reduction in price. It's been a long time since one has come down in price. Hopefully there's more of this.

Some big drops referenced here. No doubt the global cool-down is well under way.

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/toronto/2022/4/27/1_5879275.amp.html

Irelands official data is very backward looking and so lags reality by about 4 months. Asking price data showing a levelling-off though. Interesting to see how things play out from here.

https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/b52f2a466477d05576bc/?s=commuter

Yeah you can't delay forever... you could offset purchasing at what could be the peak, by fixing a low interest mortgage for as long as possible, and buying in a lower price bracket. If rates are going to rise significantly (likely) you'd hopefully be well shielded from the resulting drop in prices, assuming this is a house you'd happily live in long term, and isn't a step on the "ladder."

I'd imagine this is the worst possible time to ever buy a house though - so I'd be cautious, do everything you can to insulate yourself, low fixed rate, house not apartment, big enough to live in for 10 years plus.

Things usually cool off as the year goes on anyway, statistically the spring is the worst time for a buyer, best for a seller.

Thanks for the constructive advice - really well put and helpful! Unfortunately, although the general advice is 'you can ride out a drop as long as it's your forever home', that's not necessarily what I'm looking for - I moved back from the UK in 2020 specifically to help care for my elderly father. Being blunt, that's a situation that will last for the next few years, I expect, but maybe not beyond then (assuming he'll end up in a care home, unfortunately - he has Alzheimers.) After that, I might decide I want to stay in Ireland long-term - but will be less constrained geographically to the expensive south county Dublin area - or I might decide to go back to the UK where I lived all my adult life. Lots of uncertainty, and I really don't want to find myself trapped somewhere for a decade waiting to escape negative equity :( Like all of us, I'd give my hind teeth for a crystal ball..

Thought they looked relatively good value tbh. Certainly vs Sillan. Starting at €900k for semi D. €1.1m - €1.4m (max) for detached with houses all similar but prices increasing depending on the views.

We actually tried to buy one off the plans in February. Initially they were all for it but then ghosted us. Same EA as Sillan where prices were initially quoted as reasonable and then subsequently went up over €400k when launched. Said we wouldn’t be caught waiting again so went ahead with another property when they wouldn’t take a deposit and give us contracts. I heard the first one is due to launch in July so be interesting to see why they actually sell for!

This is anecdotal, but I recently went sale agreed on a house in Wexford. It’s an old, refurbished town-house in a very settled area, with all amenities within walking distance, a good BR rating and it’s easily big enough for a family. It was on the market for two months with no offers, and I got it for 25k under the asking price. The owners even took my first offer. Now, I know that outside of Dublin was always a different game, but I was rather surprised at this.  Maybe things are settling?

I had been planning to wait, but this house is perfectly adapted for my needs, and well within budget, so I figured that I’d take the risk and go for it; I’m already on the wrong side of my 30s. If I were younger, I’d probably wait, but in my opinion, there is too much demand and too little supply for a major crash in the near future.  

I would imagine that most of the rest will follow. If I was drawing down a mortgage in the. Ext few weeks I would be moving fast at present

Hard to disagree. The market swap rates have greatly increased (but have come off high levels of a few weeks ago) relative to the start of the year. A twenty year fixed rate with good early terms to facilitate over/early repayments could look a good bet with very limited downside

As well for first time buyers it's very hard to get anything longer than ten years as a fixed rate. There is 7 year fixed available at 2.2-2.3%.

However the real catch is of you are this far along you are probably committed to 1-2 lenders who you are dealing with. It's a matter of getting what is most advantageous to.you over the line.

I would not be worrying about overpayment details. I be fixing for 5+years if possible. It's not about the perfect it about what available to you

https://www.financeireland.ie/products/residential-mortgages/long-term-fixed-rates/ - finance Ireland allow a 10% repayment of the outstanding balance each year. Rates for 20 and 30 years don't look extortionate either....each to their own and not a recommendation.

Avant money also state "10% of your balance each year". Neither to be sniffed at

I'm not in the habit of making things up to be honest.

Bought a 2nd hand house late last year, didn't know what the market would do paid over asking obviously but a drop in house pricing can only help the people starting our in life. Still looking on daft, see what houses are coming up two properties I was interested in July 2021 all were told "sale agreed" still havn't been registered as sold. The amount of crap we viewed in person. Houses been sold as "Turn Key" absolute dirty inside, wooden window frames totally rotten, gas boilers which need to be condemned!. At least now better properties seem to be online but at an inflated price.

Have a family member staying with me for an internship in Dublin earning 18,000 a year. 21 grad student, he is gobsmacked at the price of housing and can't rap his head around what salary/job people have to afford housing in Dublin. As a graduate he should earn 32/35k starting still isn't great but will increase with his experience.

I'm still waiting...