NI Assembly Elections - A rerun of the GFA referendum?

This has been a tactic used by the British government for several years now — first it was the No Deal Brexit malarkey that was threatened and was absolutely never going to be pursued, and now the Protocol has become the tool for brinkmanship. No legislation to rip up the Protocol was outlined in the Queen’s Speech, only that “legislation was being prepared” — which doesn’t sound like some great plan is in place.

None of this is about any sincere concern for NI, it is all about the Tories outmuscling Labour. All the craic about No Deal Brexit was posturing to appease the hardcore Brexiteers and to make Labour look like weak-kneed cowards who would lick Brussel’s boots. It has been an incredibly effective technique in recent years in driving a wedge between Labour and its voter base in the north of a England and other traditionally Labour-voting areas (though as we have seen, has come at the cost of the Tories alienating themselves from some of their own support). The Protocol is simply the next thing on which the Tories can hang their image of the plucky Britons sticking it to Brussels while Labour will be forced into a corner where arguing reason means looking like they are saying Bend Over for Brussels.

They will ratchet this language up and will once again play the NI Unionists on a string until, as we have seen, the time comes to throw them under the bus once more. The Tories know that, even after Brexit, the EU is still a great scapegoat on which to pin the insecurities of English Nationalism — and the other policy they are using to make Labour look spineless, i.e. Operation Rwanda, is also grounded in the Point at Johnny Foreigner stuff that they clearly have identified as being effective.

Anyway, are SF fully 100% behind the Protocol?

Or just in favour of it as long as the DUP/TUV are opposed to same protocol?

It's hard to figure that strategy out. The protocol is a pretty good deal for NI business and if accepted and taken advantage of, could make NI a more prosperous and viable entity. That's counter intuitive to a united Ireland in several ways. Would it not make more sense to let the DUP have what they want and let them drive the NI economy down a big hole? Then SF can say... look south boys & girls, they'll do a better job for ye? Of course, border controls would have to be implemented on the island but that would also be anti business and not popular with NI residents either.

Your fixation on the DUP is interesting. You concentrate so hard on the bogeyman that you miss so much that is happening elsewhere.

Nationalist vote plateauing, Sinn Fein down on the 2019 Westminister elections, the surge of people fed up with the sectarian extremes, the failure of SF yet again to attract transfers from anywhere etc.

I will tell you one thing that is true - Sinn Fein are like Moses, useful for wandering in the desert, but they are not able to bring people to the Promised Land.

Furze is right also, a NI better off economically because it is in both the UK and the EU, won't throw that away for a united Ireland. You are giving credit to Sinn Fein for the Protocol, because you love that the DUP hate it, but you don't see the bigger picture that it pushes a UI further away if it works.

Yes you can look at it both ways, certainly a prosperous NI will be more attractive to southern voters. But it's also a 'dangerous game' in that a prosperous NI may just settle long term into a happy sort of devolved state.

Personally I suspect that SF enthusiasm for the NI Protocol is as much about that the DUP etc is opposed to it. The SF tune might well change if suddenly the DUP had a Road to Damascus conversion?