Softening house market?

^^

None of these calculations are wrong, though the numbers we have aren't exact.

Various computations put the vacancy rate in Ireland at around 10%. Some say 12.5%. If we assumed 10%, then you the multiplication above gets us ~ 1.854m houses x 2.75 people = 5.1m people. Which is only 70k away from the 2021 population estimates, and basically within a margin of error.

Then you throw in things like holiday homes, people splitting their time between various properties, etc, and you can see how it fits together.

So where does the 30k a year come from? Well immigration, for a start. Which is running around 30k per year. Obviously many families, so it's not 30k new dwellings. You also have the natural increase - individuals who were thus far living in parental accommodation, seeking to move into their own properties. And you have natural cycling of the housing stock - properties falling into disuse or disrepair and being abandoned.

The substantive issue here of course is that 10% vacancy. If we have ~200k vacant properties (that are apparently not being used as holiday homes), then indeed why are we looking to build 30k new houses a year?

But ultimately even in the last crash, vacant properties weren't that big a factor. Between 2011 and 2016, only about 30,000 vacant properties (out of 215k) came back into regular use. Which suggests that for one reason or another there are a lot of people sitting on a lot of empty houses with little or no interest in selling or using them. Most likely inherited or otherwise acquired and not bought. Thus, when the market does slow down, the vacant stock won't really be a factor.

I know someone who inherited a house and is letting it idle because they dont have the money to do it up and they have no intention of moving from where they live. I'm sure if there was some scheme to buy it from them as a going concern they might be interested. Wouldnt take a huge amount to make it into a family home. Wonder if this is same for lots of other unoccupied homes?

In these conversations over the last year the options available to the young aspiring renter or wannabe nest leaver seem to have been done to death. I think I can outline them rather succinctly here:

1. Earn €60k+ with good prospects from good stock and couple up with a fellow AB socio-economic class. Play the game and buy somthing good to very good in a good to very good area of dubin.
2. Only open the the girls, dont work have a child or two. Don't have a relationship with the father(s) Play the game and be given somthing good to very good in a good to very good area of dubin.
3. Live at home into old age
4. Rent into old age
5. Move out of dublin
6. Be homeless

The whys don't mater when you are at the coal face of it all, giving out about the way it should be won't put a roof over your head.

We have all been delt a fairly **** hand this round all we can do is play it. Decide what you can do, then what you want to do, then go make it happen.

Softening😂.

Serious question, who is buying houses in this environment?. You must be mad.

Ive gone sale agreed on my second property and the relief is incredible.

Could be the buyer didn’t get mortgage approved. Happened w my colleague

Whilst it’s too early to say what sort of correction we might have I would be shocked if we didn’t have a drop. The demand is there but at a lower price point. The market had stabilised between 2018-2020 but what came then was a need for space both internal and external and anyone who was in a position to do so did. At the same time investment funds and councils were stripping supply, so we had a situation where councils and reit type funds were buying up new and second hand property and those fortunate ones were hoovering up cheaper rural property most likely not their principal private residence but a 2nd or 3rd property where they could escape to and work from. We then had a stock market surge due to all the free printed money sloshing around which bouyed the markets giving some other lucky people wealth or possibly the illusion of wealth.

It’s absolutely different to 2007 as we’ve been protected from ourselves by the ECB rules, but I think the change due to sentiment across the board will be quick, if the younger cohort have been investing their deposits, it could be wipeout for them and as the tide turns I think we’ll see a lot of people racing for the exit doors.

The government. 3.1 billion spent last year

Its annoying the way the discussion is always dublin centered. Cork market is also out of control for a long time now. Galway no different.

The biggest insult to anyone renting and trying to save is the derelict ireland hashtag on twitter. The amount of property just left sitting there yet 2 government minister say it not a problem. Now while some of the properties are just fit for knocking there are others that could be bought on stream a lot quicker that building from the start. We reslly need an enforced vacant property tax. Can think of 2 estates in cork featured one in rochestown and another over by carrig na bhfear. Ghost estates from celtic tiger sitting there windows smashed in. With rising cost would mske more economic sense to let someone renovate these.sure there are examples of these 2 estates all over the country

Also local councils need to get the finger out. For example in templemore the number of houses council owned and left sitting there. One example counci bought house last year by garda college.had been lived in. Only needs cosmetic work but still sitting empty since in the meantime nothing available to rent in the town and people/couples crying out looking for somewhere to rent or affordable to buy.

No new developments in nenagh either started in the last few years. A short communite from limerick.any house that does go up for sale is selling in a month for crazy money

Yes, a bit of me wonders if there'll be a short-term (next year or so) lull / drop due to dropping consumer sentiment, but then a drop in new supply feeds through and starts pushing up house prices again - given all the demand still out there.

Was bidding on our dream home and were highest bidders as of last thursday. Agent comes back and tells us they are going to a sealed best and final bid on monday. Not happy about that but we had to comply, felt like bidding against ourselves. After getting some advice from a friend in the business and from speaking to the agent we bid another sizeable amount to secure and were confident that we would be successful but unfortunately found out yesterday we didn't get it. Absolutely gutted.

Not softening in Dublin 8 - Nice house up for sale in Inchicore (https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/a-woodwork-teacher-s-revamped-home-with-covered-deck-outdoors-for-495k-1.4873525) . Asking price 495K and as far as I am aware the current bid is at over 630K...I know the area and it is definitely improving as an area but that is a mad price for a 3 bed....

Thats the real Inchicore!

Nearly everypeoperty investor I know has already sold. Only two left and they are having issues with non paying or moving tenants.

Really cant see there being too many normal landlords left soon.