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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You found one article, but on the whole this is not how the media presented this issue. Particularly after SAGE decided that certain demographics of people 'do not feel sufficiently personally threatened'. You can search these SAGE notes for yourself but the notes are under a document called 'options for increasing adherence to social distancing measures'.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Perhaps you're only seeing what you want to see or you don't filter out the click bait reporting in media in general. When you look at numbers they are reporting back then. The median age, the low % in ICU its hard to spin that up into hysteria that you seem to find everywhere.

    I'm not saying that as a personal criticism on you. But too many people don't distinguish tabloid style reporting from actual facts that are in the media.

    People consume too much media without critical analysis of it.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I totally agree with you, this statement here is particularly true (People consume too much media without critical analysis of it.)

    Unfortunately, this accounts for a large proportion of people in society.

    FYI, I was aware of the data points throughout (median age, the low % in ICU), but I was equally aware that most people were not. People want easy and quick answers/news, they don't want to be digging around, and this is understandable. But, I am interested in truth.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    It should be very easy to find these media articles which that we were all equally vulnerable post march 2020 then... so where are they?

    And also, the specific section in the SAGE notes which advocates this as a strategy.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SAGE: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/882722/25-options-for-increasing-adherence-to-social-distancing-measures-22032020.pdf - under persuasion section. A particularly interesting section:

    "The perceived level of personal threat needs to be increased among those who are complacent, using hard-hitting emotional messaging. To be effective this must also empower people by making clear the actions they can take to reduce the threat "


    In fact, there are lots of gems in various SAGE publications, if one wishes to look. In particular, I should add - the notes from meetings before lockdown was accepted as a strategy.

    As for media articles suggesting (as I stipulated, indirectly or directly) - just look for yourself, I've done my research thanks.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    This is not what you were asked for.

    You were asked to back up your specific claim about "equally vulnerable". You referenced SAGE. I'm asking for the reference where they promote the concept of people being equally vulnerable. Saying that people need to be made more aware of the threat they face is not the same thing as advocating they are all equally vulnerable.

    You said it was widespread in the media. You have failed to substantiate this claim with actual articles, which should be trivial if it was as widespread as you allege. Instead of providing such articles you drop in lines like "just look for yourself", which is rather hollow given posters have cited mainstream news articles which contradict your "take".

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Did you read that SAGE article, in it's entirety? How do you think they went about 'using hard-hitting' messaging?

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1111/1259269-coronavirus-ireland-latest/

    This article paints a picture, deliberately or not, that nobody was safe from the virus (no age group). No mention of if the (very unlucky and tragic) individual had (perhaps multiple) underlying conditions - only the age is mentioned. Now, I did stipulate 'directly or indirectly' - it's up to the viewer how they comprehend that story.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,426 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Obesity, (and all the illnesses it causes) were the highest risk factors for severe Covid disease

    Overweight people have a choice, and it wasn't up to those who actually looked after themselves (physically and dietary), to also look after them.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    RE Fintan: All liberty carries risks. Sometimes the risk is just to ourselves, sometimes it is to other people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Saying someone is at risk is not the same as saying we are all at equal risk.

    You were asked to back up your specific claim about "equally vulnerable". You've been unable to do so multiple times despite your claims it was so widespread.

    If you want to go down this rabbit hole any further you are on your own, it's increasingly tenuous and irrelevent to the current topic.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Agreed that it's not relevant here, but not tenuous at all. Just connect the dots in my previous post (https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119074505/#Comment_119074505). Happy to cease this stream of conversation though, because I suspect it will be circular in nature.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    You don't need to go anywhere else. Its there (indeed its everywhere) in back and black and white.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,150 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    ....and we`re back to comparing apples to oranges.

    20% of Sweden`s population is aged 65 years or older. Same for Denmark 20%. For Finland it`s 22.5% and for Norway 17.5%

    For your theory to be correct then Sweden and Denmark should have the same percentage of excess deaths, with Finland being slightly higher and Norway slightly lower and that is not the case.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    Remember that the graph is cumulative. It means that at the end of the period when most of the deaths occurred, Sweden had only slightly higher excess deaths than Ireland at 4.8% compared to 4.5% for Ireland. About 7% higher than Ireland but lower when the age profile is taken into account.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    I understand the premise, though I think its not that useful as the approach and the virus changed over time. So it really only the early part of the pandemic thats useful to discuss. By extending the timeline its flattening the differences. When its the differences that are interesting.

    If your chart was to reflect the premise its should divert at the start and align over time. But it doesn't. Its a mirror and I already explained why I think thats not logical.

    Taking the age profile into account, is meaningless unless you explain how you calculated that. But that leads to a another question, why compare two countries with widely different age profiles when you could compare two similar age profiles. That leads to another questions when the virus is very age specific, and you've picked two widely different age profiles, they shouldn't mirror at all. Even cultural difference in people activities should make the charts different.

    So its very hard to comment on your chart when how it generated is not explained. We have a conclusion, but nothing to explain how you got there.

    Someone said the same pattern by clockwork. How can two entirely different countries have the same pattern by clockwork. Somethings not right, or you've not explained some McDonalds secret sauce used to create it.

    I'm not saying its wrong, seems wrong to me. But perhaps if it was explained better I would "get" it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    The main problem with comparing Sweden with other Scandinavian countries is that some of these had lower levels of restrictions than Sweden.



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,150 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Which is why I said apples and oranges. Compared to Sweden`s neighbours with the same or very similar percentages of those aged 65 or over Sweden`s excess deaths greatly exceed all of them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    That suggests that restrictions have an effect. Whereas the idea on this thread is they don't have an effect. I think you'll have to change tack.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,751 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    For someone who accused another poster yesterday of being patronising you have certainly mastered that art in your reply.

    I know and have studied social philosophy and have read widely around the subject and could redirect you to other concepts of democracy but that would not be a relevant answer ...as yours is not except to try to elevate your post to impress ...I am not impressed . 🙄

    By all means use any education you might have to improve your own discourse , but to tell somebody to watch or read something that is entirely surplus to requirements and is fir many outside their experience , just to show off a little bit of knowledge ( sic) is pedantic, boastful and just creates an impression that you are full of...sxxx ( or flannel as I said before).

    I could direct you to read the epidemiology of cases admitted to ICU in Sweden over Covid ,and scholarly medical articles to explain the rationale behind those decisions all of which I might consider relevant to the discussion but I would think most here would find beyond their layman's comprehension and boring in the extreme.

    As I find your post ...



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you think I was trying to be boastful, or patronising then you misread the tone of my post - it was not written in that manner. I didn't tell anyone to do anything. I merely suggested that it was worth watching if one is interested in history (I even said as much). Thus is the problem with written word, when conversing - tone is often misjudged.

    My point, however, remains.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,751 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    This has been explained many times to you and others who seek to use it as a stick to beat people with.

    Would you similarly blame cancer sufferers for their illness and those with arthritis or autoimmune disorders on immunosupressant therapy for their low immunity leading to as much vulnerability as obesity ?

    There are so many unwell people for which obesity is a side effect, and not the primary cause . And those whose daily struggles are against much more than a simple choice of whether they should add a bit more protein to their smoothy or what time they will go to the gym !

    Rock on with the Ross O'Carroll Kelly narrative , Fintan ...it is so you 👏



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,751 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    What was your point to be fair?

    It got lost underneath the ...flannel !



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,338 ✭✭✭Bit cynical


    I'm not sure that's a valid conclusion. If you are trying to prove the efficacy of restrictions and so forth, then you really want to compare, say, Sweden with a high-restrictions country (as Ireland was) rather than other countries that employed comparatively low levels of restrictions. Obviously if there's a different age profile then this needs to be taken into account but even if we do not do this, we find Sweden only marginally worse than Ireland in terms of excess deaths over the period.

    This should not be the case. Ireland should have much lower excess deaths due to a) the high level of restrictions throughout and b) its younger age profile.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I mentioned similar a page or 2 back.

    Our deaths are very close to Sweden despite being on opposite ends of the scale in terms of restrictions.

    If you looked at both countries with no knowledge of the actions they took, you wouldn't notice any significant difference.


    And people told us that without lockdowns their would be insane death rates. Well, Sweden proved that there wouldn't be.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Why? If you are trying to prove the efficacy of restrictions you would look at restrictions, full stop. Why do you have to limit to high restrictions country or to only Ireland v Sweden??? You state it but don't justify it.

    And the question on this thread is whether the Swedish approach or a restrictions based approach adopted to varying degrees by other countries is the correct approach.

    There are more factors in play that the criteria you have listed, such as the intrinsic factors in the Scandinavian societies versus a country such as Ireland which has an open border with another high population jurisdiction which had lower restrictions.

    So, any assessment of Sweden which does not consider its peers and nearest neighbours is incomplete if not a deliberate attempt at misrepresentation.

    The countries which, if you were starting from first principles, you would first compare Sweden with.

    And we find that, compared to its neighbouring countries, more restrictions lead to less excess deaths amongst neighbouring countries.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Its not my conclusion Its the reason YOU gave for NOT selecting other countries.

    The main problem with comparing ... countries is that some of these had lower levels of restrictions ...




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    I think its called Data Distortion.

    "...data distortion is the intentional or unintentional misrepresentation of a dataset through the use of cherry picking, ...and proportional warping...."



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ireland Vs Sweden is a great comparison because you literally have the complete opposite approach.

    With Ireland, I think you can certainly make a case that too many restrictions in place for too long can actually be detrimental.



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  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Thats literally what you guys are doing though...

    Ireland did better than England = Ireland good.

    Sweden did worse than Norway = Sweden bad.

    You don't want to compare data with the rest of the world because your cherry pick suits your agenda.



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