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Milk Price III

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,280 ✭✭✭atlantic mist


    was talking to a glanbia supplier this morning her and her husband have 65% fixed with no other source of income, shes in her 60's and couldnt afford to put buy all her groceries last week, she had to take adjusted scheme out of fear of next month

    some serious hardship cases starting to happen, its only going to get worse



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,714 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Sell surplus cows here and surplus heifer calves to a lad a few miles from us, has all his milk locked in at 33 cent, wouldn't be a huge herd circa 350k annually and his March cheque had a 5k deduction versus what he'd of got on his small bit of non-fixed supply if none of his milk was fixed....

    You'd feel sorry for him



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    Dairygold up to 49.85 base. 0.65c sustainability bonus added after solids adjustment then



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,830 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    While I feel for them I cannot understand why milk suppliers fix the price. The risk is too great. I pointed this out 3+ years ago when the milk collapsed and straight afterwards the processor's were offering 28c/L fixed and milk price going up.

    If banks insisted then you were borrowing too much money. I just cannot get my head around it. I think for some it seemed an easy way to manage tax.

    As well it was pure mismanagement by the Co-Ops they should never have allowed more than 33% fixed by a supplier as you could not fix input prices.

    Finally there is the fact that nearly all contracts line this have a get out of jail card when an outlying event happens. The Co-ops never write this I to the contracts.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭Wildsurfer


    To give Base an example of someone who fixed, I bought land to expand the Dairy enterprise a few years back. It was a once in a lifetime opportunity, so we went to our limits to do it. At 30 cent I could comfortably make repayments but in low 20s I was in trouble. So to take out that fear I fixed a portion. Does that make sense? People with no money worries can roll the dice but others might have to look at the worst case scenario and be more cautious.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,830 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    But you have rolled the dice with out thinking. If you cannot fix input costs you should not fix out you selling price. I remember making this point at the time as well. That usually when milk price is strong so are inputs and visa versa.

    The fear of the low twenties was always overstated. It was a one off event on a twenty year cycle. It was never sustainable as feedlots cannot sustain milk at that price for longer than a few months. They have to slaughter cows that are in excess of there fixed milk price contracts.

    Those producing milk out of feedlots can fix as they can either fix there inputs or store 1-2 years feed in silos. I always taught the pushing of fixed price scheme's was deeply flawed.

    If you have a large enough scale them for.ing s company is the best option. Build up a cash reserve out of tax saving over 2-3 years. Fixing selling price with out fixing input price is a massive risk.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    Didn't hear of any body insisting in it. At the time it was about reducing risk. Have had milk prices in low 20s twice in the last 7 years so not quiet a 1 in 20 Yr event. In dairygold it tended to be 5 or 10% max of supply in a given contract so dunno of many having a large supply fixed bar having maybe contracts rolling over each other so would prob be a max of 30% at one time.

    Don't disagree with the premise, just don't think they are done correctly here



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    That’s it in. Nutshell …..makes me mad when I hear lads saying that nothing should be done with lads with milk fixed ….quite clearly no grasp of the current curve ball mr putin threw to the world by invading Ukraine ….

    fixed schemes I still maintain are a good idea but they need to be index linked to inputs



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    It is but most coops up to now weren’t given that option



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,280 ✭✭✭atlantic mist


    well you will find the glanbia contracts have a get out of jail free clause for customers.. they can cancel contracts at any time with no reason.. so if milk hits 13c a litre (17c off the base im being paid of 30c) the customer can stop buying product



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,830 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Were not giving or did not negotiate it into the contract.

    If that is right it's a really careless contract by co-op's. They must not have read the contract before offering it to there suppliers. Surely if you saw a get out of jail clause on one side you would negotiate the same on your side.

    Or was it the coop looking after its customers. This tends to happen s lot in the agrifood industry. Those on the sales side tend to be account manager more than salespeople

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Its a stroke,Glanbia's 3cpl 'support'

    They should be looking after fixed suppliers separately from the non fixed

    Basically they're effectively saying they,the largest CoOp in the country cannot pay the market price others can pay

    That simply couldn't be the case

    Its a farmers coop now fully owned by farmers,its price policy this month is simply wrong

    Give fixed milk Its 8cpl support

    Pay the 50cpl to non fixed

    Be a farmers CoOp,not a stroke CoOp



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,280 ✭✭✭atlantic mist


    new adjusted scheme has same clause, and will have it in place for next 2.5 years with no link to input costs or inflation (40,38,38 glanbia scheme)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,413 ✭✭✭✭Green&Red




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,714 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Should be another couple of cent for May milk, Arla is really setting the standard, they obviously haven't their head in the sand re keeping suppliers onside and happy to keep the milk flowing knowing they'll get paid for it

    https://www.ipmsltd.co.uk/dairy-bulletin-news/3030/incredible-4-49-ppl-further-increase-for-arlas-conventional-and-organic-members-means-a-total-of-over-8ppl-in-one-month/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,710 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    Kerry 51.5 cpl for May milk up 2 cent



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,246 ✭✭✭Grueller


    Glanbia up 2 as well. Disguised as an agri input subsidy. Designed to help the people under pressure with fixed milk I would say.



  • Registered Users Posts: 791 ✭✭✭Pinsnbushings


    Ye and also easier to cut the price in future as the base is only 46.5, so lower point to start knocking 2 cent a litre off per month.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Does the glanbia 5cpl because its not part of base mean that glanbia only pay extra for solids on top of 46cpl versus 52 ?

    In other words whilst it's clearly aimed at getting some of the market price to fixed lads,is it also feathering glanbias bottom line?


    Also have we clarity where the price support is coming from?

    Is it the cookie jar ?

    Because if it is,then glanbia are essentially taking 6cpl from the market extra for themselves

    That would be some cod...



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,714 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    They never changed bf/pr rates from march to April so they're doing a nice 3 card trick like you thought, I'd say they are using the 40 odd million euro fund to cover this "support payment" I don't think the vast majority of suppliers realise what they have let themselves in for re what's currently steering the ship at board level



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,871 ✭✭✭mf240




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,714 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Plainly put the debt levels that the co-op have taken on are of the reservation, and another couple of 100 million is going to be ploughed into this new joint venture, the 100million share exchange from a few years ago was only paid back last calander year in a 100 million euro lump sum, a carbon copy 250 million deal is now in play, that financed the buyout....

    If share price stays in the doldrums, a quarter of a billion will have to be found our put aside to cover the above going forward, the margin the co-op needs to skim of milk price going forward to cover the above will be multiples of the guaranteed 3.2% margin that was apparently holding back our milk price all along in the previous joint ownership structure...

    The fact they are already paying a base price that's 4-6 cent below all other co-ops when you strip back these support payments is setting of alarm bells, they're using the fixed milk situation as a cover


    Post edited by jaymla627 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,611 ✭✭✭Mooooo


    It should be on yer statements if the bonuses or whatever they are, are added pre or post solid adjustment? Bonus in Dairygold is added after the solid adjustment is done on base price so the way they include it as part of the base price is misleading in that case



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,830 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It co.es down to are they selling milk too cheap to Glanbia. It really seems the tail is wagging the dog.

    It's a real lesson to Kerry suppliers many who think that shafting non milk supplying shareholders will suddenly solve all there problems.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,246 ✭✭✭Grueller


    Solids adjusted after bonus added would be my reading



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,304 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    The farmer elected reps on the board of Glanbia ….are Glanbia suppliers knocking there doors down demanding to know why all they are paying as a base price is 46.58 cent when ornua returns are returning near 55 ????and most other coops are paying above 50 ….without huge knowledge it looks as if a few cents are been taken from non fixed suppliers to top up fixed milk price and farmers own money within the coop been used as these extra gimmicky top ups …..no issue supporting fixed suppliers as these are unprecedented times …..coops have rarely paid close to ornua returns so money should be there to cover it without raiding cookie jars or knocking money of all suppliers to cover it ….I considered a switch to Glanbia years ago ….very glad I staid put ….even tho we’ve lots of faults too



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,710 ✭✭✭✭whelan2


    One would wonder do the farmer board members have much milk in fixed price schemes?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,714 ✭✭✭jaymla627


    Chinese whispers says a good few have north of 50% fixed, the sickening thing is they'll pay this top-up till November, and then pull it, and use the winter bonuses from dec-feb to mask the drop in base price, following the exact same playbook as the Spring just gone



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,280 ✭✭✭atlantic mist


    The line us in fixed milk are getting from company and coop is they can not support us without giving the same support to everyone, the adjusted scheme at 38c is going to keep this fixed saga going on into next year and possibly the year after, kerry sorted out the issue swiftly hats off.

    The 5c input cost makes it look more severe the help/support fixed milk supplier are getting, instead of non-fixed being back maybe .5/1c or using the sustainability fund they chose this route, clever way to get suppliers arguing with each other take the focus off themselves and the customers, who are milking us, we might have a few interesting few months when 20/30% fixed start seeing the big chunk of money gone from may and june milk chq, only half people over 35% took adjusted scheme so expect a hit on milk price next year as the company cant charge the customer anymore in case they go broke so product will possibly going out equivalent of 38c, fixed schemes has shown a light on how they price...customer first!!

    only sell aprox 30% product to ornua, nice chunk is fixed at either 30,31.5,32c

    kilmeaden cheese has only went up in supermarkets in last month by 5% no increase all last year.....wonder why???



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