Softening house market?

theres a major disconnection between asset markets and the general economy, again, the ownership of assets is heavily skewed, a significant proportion of corporate earnings has been coming from financialised activities such as share buy backs etc, asset markets have been propped up by polices such as qe, and since asset ownership is skewed,.......

Correct, my apologies, central bank rates could be 1-2% behind. But it is still possible for mortgage rates to hit 9% especially on buy to let which already seems to run markups of 4% above par. My prediction is 2022 Irish property peaks and then will crash bottoming out in 5 years. It is incredibly exposed by short term variable and fixed rates.

Inflation currently is a supply shock but as you say if it isnt nipped then it could cascade and there be hyperinflation especially if confidence is lost. Governments are incapable of balancing books. There really shouldnt have been any bond buying or asset purchases by any central bank. Its not their job to supress government borrowing costs.

Of course, every aspect of the world economy is related to the next.

People who say otherwise are clueless.

35 living with the parents. You must have good mental stamina

...but adjusting rates simply wont solve these supply and energy problems, its just gonna make the whole situation much worse, we truly have to get away from this thinking of balancing the books, excess credit has ultimately brought us here, it hasnt worked, and the only way to counteract this is by running deficits, but not using this money to simply inflate the price of assets such as property, but actual use it to create new assets, such as new properties. polices such as qe have also ultimately failed, we cannot keep using our financial institutions in both the public and private domains, to just keep inflating certain markets, as this is catastrophically failing, for all of us!

If you are unsure about buying but feel it is right for you, Ask all of your friends who have ever bought a house at any time how they feel right now about having bought the house. I think it will settle your mind.

I'm also quite bearish - I just look at what's happening to prices in NZ and Canada, and starting to in the U.S., and think 'are we really THAT different..?'

Having said that, while I hesitated this week, a property that I really liked went sale agreed, and I am now sort of kicking myself. Only time will tell if I made the right or wrong call.

Interesting though - when I viewed on Monday, there were two active offers, another person coming to view on Thu, and an open viewing listed for Saturday. The agent talked to me Tuesday lunchtime to see where I was at and I said I liked the property but had some concerns over the price point. By Tuesday afternoon, the place was closed to new offers (and seemed to be down to one offer) and by yesterday lunchtime was formally gone sale agreed. I suspect the sellers decided to bank the offer they had rather than wait even a couple of days longer - maybe sensing the top of the market.

Not necessarily. The expensive homes in D4 etc prices were destroyed and never recovered. A old 3 bed semi that was 2.5 million now sells for 900k. Same in D6. Some houses never recovered. Some people have lost 1.5 million and sold up.

Normally the rich are the last to be conned but their weakpoint is greed and the ability to get deals done and draw credit. Thats a fatal flaw when it comes to property.

Its never been a bad time to buy property that cashflows. And the latter point is the key meaning cheap property like a 1 bed flat will always be solvent even if prices wane.

Waiting to buy isn't just about prices, it's about supply increasing. Over the next few years we will see significant supply come on stream. I think it was the right decision to hold off buying once it became clear after a few months of restrictions that the market had hit a euphoric phase. And I think holding off for a year from now (at least a year) will be a good decision.