Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Spring 2022

A couple of huge here near Tralee this evening, temperature dropping sharply during them.

Most of the activity today off shore apart from around Tuam.

A preliminary look at Fri would suggest a fairly widespread scatter of inland thunderstorms during the post frontal unstable airflow from early afternoon as heating gets underway yet temperatures will be modest . Fair amount DLS and LLS could give decent deep convection with numerous thunderstorms with a risk of hail. Upper cold pool passes over Ireland during peak diurnal heating giving decent lapse rates. Heavy showers giving the risk of localized spot flooding I would think. Will see closer to the time what CAPE is available, at the moment not huge but enough to spark off a few storms if somewhat short-lived perhaps. Conducive to funnel formation or some brief tornadic activity perhaps.

Looks like the Eastern half of the country best chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, maybe peaking in an area somewhere around North Leinster and the NE . CAPE readings not huge but if there are enough breaks in the cloud to provide heating then there could be a fair scattering of thunderstorms. With fairly cold pool aloft and a negatively tilted trough with decent amounts of DLS and LLS some convection could produce hail and heavy downpours and possible spot flooding. I reckon Met Eireann will wait to see how it develops much before making a decision if it warrants a warning. Will be interesting to see if any funnels are spotted or some brief tornadic activity. Looks to clear considerably early evening for much of the country.

Torrential downpours in Tralee, got caught out in one, short time ago, heaviest rain I've seen in a long time.

Upper trough moving across Ireland with quite cold uppers giving a showery day on Monday with the slight chance of a few sporadic isolated thunderstorms possible, more so in the afternoon when a bit of surface heating gets going. Some scattered heavy showers with the risk of hail.

Just seen Dan Hollys forecast on Convective Weather

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 23 May 2022 - 05:59 UTC Tue 24 May 2022

ISSUED 19:32 UTC Sun 22 May 2022

ISSUED BY: Dan

A rather messy pattern evolves on Monday as an upper trough moves slowly eastwards across the British Isles. The forward side will engage with a frontal boundary straddling East Anglia and SE England to bring renewed pulses of rain here, slowly clearing to the North Sea. Elsewhere a more showery vibe is anticipated, but as numerous showers develop they will likely morph into areas of showery rain due to a combination of either a shallow convective layer (and therefore convective infill) or due to rather moist profiles with weak cloud-layer shear. This will generally limit the risk of lightning, although a few isolated strikes may be possible just about anywhere (perhaps eastern Scotland most favoured). Meanwhile, Ireland will be located under the upper trough axis with the cold pool aloft creating an environment more favourable for deep convection and hence a greater chance of lightning. It seems plausible that 300-500 J/kg CAPE will be available by the afternoon, and a few thunderstorms will be possible. However, under the trough axis cloud-layer shear will be weak and forecast profiles yield tall, skinny CAPE. Nonetheless, in all parts of the British Isles the rather slack regime with areas of low-level convergence and/or topographical enhancement could aid the development of a few funnel clouds. Showers or longer spells of rain will persist in many places overnight, rotating around the main surface low over the North Sea, and hence there will be an ongoing (low) risk of lightning associated with this activity.

a cool showery day. It's only a week from June and temperature of 13C. Temperatures across the country between 11 and 15C. Disgraceful for this time of the year.

Looks like most activity along coastal counties or just along the coasts, it would seem that convergence played its part in the end, not enough oomph for most parts overland for the convection to become electrified.