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What Will happen when Generation Rent Retire?

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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,898 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It happens now. What happens when the amount of non-property owing pensioners plummets?

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,554 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...they actually have been trying to do something about it, they just havent accepted their approaches will never work, they ll be in opposition soon enough, then it ll be up to sf and co to solve, and they may not be able to do that!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    We are in a middle of a supply chain crisis, there's a shortage of building workers, even if the government doubled taxs they could not build 100k houses. Sinn fein are getting more votes, more support because young people are losing faith in fine Gael, and fine faill.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,339 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Make conditions so intolerable that people will be left with no choice but to emigrate. That's going to be our safety valve. Adult children arent going to want to lodge with mom and pop forever.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭malinheader


    Our children should have to emigrate while our government carry on with an open door policy when it comes to emigration into the country. If our own can't afford to purchase a home how can someone coming into the country do so. As well as housing our hospitals and schools etc cannot cope with the massive shift in population for such a small island. But no one can mention the real problem in fear of being labelled.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,554 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, we dont have an open door policy, there is criteria already in place in regards immigration, our houses issues have been well known for years now, its been clearly obvious throughout this period, that these approaches and policies would never work, the political parties still hell bend on implementing them are falling with them, theyre causing their own demise!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭malinheader


    In my opinion the criteria for immigration is just ignore it and someone else will hopefully sort it. We have issues for a long time with housing, health and alot of other aspects of being able to run as a functioning country, so why are we still taking in certain immigrants who need free housing, free health care and in most cases social welfare payments. Should the door not be closed until we can sort out our own massive issues in our own country. And before anyone jumps in I am not counting the Ukraine refugees who should be fully supported by our country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,554 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    again, immigration actually isnt truly the problem, even though i can understand your logic, and it certainly is very logical, and makes sense in ways, its actually not really the problem, but again, it is adding fuel to the fire. we radically changed our approach to housing in the last few decades, and it has catastrophically failed, but we still have not accepted this approach will never work, i suspect temporarily closing the door, wont make us realise this, it would probably just make the situation far worse....



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    It’s rare to come across such an objectively, demonstrably incorrect understanding of a situation. A few things:

    “You’d think people were forced to rent. They aren't” - Housing, as you would know, is a pretty essential component of basic survival, so unless people can live with their parents and find a job within a reasonable distance of that house (presuming their parents allow them to live in their home indefinitely), they are “forced” to rent in the sense that they need to live in a city or area in which they don’t own a property. This means they need to rent.

    “It’s still just as possible as it ever was to do well for yourself” - So this, while also wrong, requires a bit more explanation. In our increasingly neoliberal society, people “do well for [themselves]” specifically at the expense of others. Our society is a zero sum game, in order for one person to be doing well, another has to not be doing not as well. This is where your point about being in a position to get a mortgage in your 20s comes into play. For that we’ll need to look at average house prices and median income in Ireland. I acknowledge the average will be slightly skewed by extreme values at either end, but it serves perfectly as an illustrative point. 

    In Dublin, the average house price is now 509,000. For a one applicant mortgage (I use this as the calculation because its a ridiculous suggestion that a person needs to be in a relationship and going halves on a house in order to be able to afford one) this person, as per central bank rules, would need an income of approx €145k. If you are earning that in Ireland you are earning more than approx 96% of the population. That goes back to your “doing well” point from earlier. If you’re doing that well, the vast majority of the country isn’t doing as well as you. You can’t “make the right life choices” your way out of that if youre that other 96%. 

    To further illustrate this, lets look at national average, it sits at about 290k. For a one applicant mortgage for this you would need an income of 82k. That still places you in about the top 10% of the Irish population. Once again, someone in that bracket is “doing well” ahead of the other 90%, and at their expense. So, unless a person gets substantial help from their parents, buys a house with another person (and thus only owns 50% of it) or earns in the top 5% of the country, they cannot easily get a mortgage , and that is absolutely something you can blame on the current system. 

    90% of the population don’t have “worthless degrees” which are preventing them for getting an enormous mortgage, they simply don’t have the means or leg up to break out of a system intentionally designed to keep them where they are.

    People certainly aren’t “owed” a mortgage, but to say that it’s a case of being smart and saving a bit in your 20s is literally, as you can see, mathematically impossible nonsense. I’d imagine you greatly overestimate how much of where you are in life was luck and privilege vs “hard work”.



  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    SF are engaged in a bit of a long con on a lot of things and it's a very understandable strategy to boost their vote so that one day they can be the main party in government. When/If that time comes it will the old "we didn't realise just how bad things were so now we can't do what we've been promising" line. Fixing housing is extremely complex and no simple plan will fix it but it helps that you can persuade people that it will.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,554 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    peoples expectations of our future governments will be too great, no one government will be able to resolve this quickly, you can be damn sure it wont be in one term of government, i suspect we ll still be dealing with serious housing issues heading into the next decade....



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,777 ✭✭✭The J Stands for Jay


    You would need to consider the deaths of current home owners who are presumably older than generation rent



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,339 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    People are living longer, by the time the older generation kick the bucket their kids will be in their 40s or older, not really a great time to start a family.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,579 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Haven't heard O Broin and Cullinane say they will be prepared to take on the Housing and Health portfolios after the next GE if SF are in Government.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,554 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    id say thats more than likely what will occur, and it wont be easy for them, they ll seriously struggle, possible fail



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,777 ✭✭✭The J Stands for Jay


    I'm talking about older people whose estates will put their property up for sale.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,339 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    It's wishful thinking that it would even make the tiniest difference. It's a very long game.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    one applicant mortgage taken as your starting point is where this becomes worthless im afraid.


    housing situation absolutely sucks, agreed but using a very strained example like this weakens the rest of your post considerably



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    Hardly strained. As the old saying goes: “If you’re making a joint application you’re not buying a house you’re buying part of a house.”

    You’re talking rubbish and from your mealy-mouthed reply I can tell you agree.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    #bekind indeed


    your post was pretty good besides but the measure of the health of the housing market has never been and will never be "lets see how single people could buy the average priced house in the capital"


    its transparently not the measure.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    Sorry kid but the metric for years absolutely was how much of a mortgage a single earner could afford on the average industrial wage. I’m guessing you were born on this side of the 21st century.

    I know you’re gonna come in with some nonsense saying “you didn’t say a single earner you said a single person” but in practical terms they are the same.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    could you make a post without an ad hom aside by any chance, humphrey bogart you aint, shirley temple i aint.


    a metric "what income gets what mortgage" sure

    the best or in any way indicative/useful metric "how does that stack vs the average house in the capital" absolutely not.


    im not the one sliding around the point here, nor am i resorting to the tone youve adopted. your disclaimer at the end of yr post is, frankly, some cheek.



  • Registered Users Posts: 497 ✭✭PalLimerick


    No interest in politics? More like you won't condenm the **** job the current eejits are doing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    To focus on single vs joint application really misses the point. 

    Firstly, a single person should be able to afford a single occupancy dwelling in a capital city, the idea they shouldn't is the creeping neoliberalism I mentioned in my original response to kermit. Even most 1br dwellings in Dublin require a single person to be on an average income of approx 85k to 125k (which again, is a bracket that maybe 6% of the entire country are in), but I digress. 

    To run the same scenario for a joint application, the average couple would need to earn 75k each and have a liquid cash deposit of 50k. For a couple in their late twenties (which is kermits scenario) to have that, they would be in the top few % of people that age in the country, most people wouldn't reach 75k earning power until later in life, and going by median income in Ireland, most never will. So once again, my point is still totally solid and mathematically verifiable, that: 

    contrary to what kermit says you cant simply make some smart choices and choose a good degree and then buy in your late twenties unless you are part of a very select few %. 

    most people, to some degree, are forced to rent 

    it is not "as possible as ever" to do well in that context 

    many of the mid 30s people that you talk about living at home may indeed be doing so in an attempt to save and escape this entirely unfair scenario.

    To misunderstand any of this veers into being intentionally dense.



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,971 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    How is our society a zero sum game in the context of economic growth?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,066 ✭✭✭HerrKuehn


    A million people are paying no income tax. The amount of VAT they pay is a very small contribution towards the state, especially given the level of government involvement they want in service provision (housing, health, childcare etc). People need to decide what it is that they want and whether they are willing to pay for it. I would love to know what the intersection is between the set of people who turn up at the social housing protests and the water charges protesters, I am guessing it is the same people.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,108 ✭✭✭CGI_Livia_Soprano
    Holding tyrants to the fire


    With something with such constrained supply as housing it absolutely is. 

    Person A wants a house, person B wants the same house , if person A gets the house , they obtain it at person B's expense, person B sees no direct or indirect benefit from Person A getting the house. Housing doesn't have to be a zero sum game, but it currently is, particularly in high demand areas like the Capital.



  • Registered Users Posts: 265 ✭✭jo187


    I was at water and housing protests and have worked my whole life. To say if someone doesn't work that they don't contribute society is a very narrow view.

    People who are carers to family members, save the state a lot in terms of money and sacrifice a lot of their own lives.



  • Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭freemickey


    If you look at Irish projections, one million extra migrants are needed by 2050 to maintain the pensions of today.

    Sound reasonable?

    There is a growing, sensible, pushback against the mantra of "migration solves all woes". Even now, does it feel like it's working? Does it feel like it's getting better under this plan, or worse?



    Read this and watch the little video. It's a taste of the utter insanity our leadership has bet the future upon.


    Either something is done immediately or else it's going to keep getting worse from here. Sticking your head in the sand won't make it go away, and your Hamptons are not a defensible position either. Get educated.

    Migration and sustainability are oil and water.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,243 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    The notion of a single person buying a house is a relatively recent development. Up till the 1970s single people lived in lodgings or employer supplied accommodation. Nurses and doctors lived in the hospitals. Guards lived in the garda stations. Soldiers lived in barracks. When it became feasible for single people to get mortgages or rent purpose built accommodation, the public sector employers took the opportunity to eliminate on-site accommodation and reduce their administrative costs. One hundred years ago the housing crisis was even more acute. Dublin had the worst slums in Europe. It took decades of building social housing to eradicate that.



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