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Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Really important to put the labour shortage emergency in the context of housing costs. We know that businesses across the country are crying out for staff and supply chains at different levels all need employees (e.g. with a pub; the pubs need barmen to serve the beer, waitresses to serve tables, chefs to cook food, breweries need drivers to make and deliver the beer, food producers need staff to make the food and deliver it, the accountants doing the books need staff etc.).

    40k+ non-EU work visas to be issued next year, but with average rents at €1800pm (or €900pm for a room) in Dublin and around 300 rentals in total available in Dublin city; quite simply this won't work - it cannot be overlooked or overstated but issuing these labour visas won't help the labour shortages until significant housing supply is made available and costs fall materially (rents in particular would need to fall 30-40% to facilitate these low paid workers).

    We are in the process of hitting the wall, economically speaking, so it should not be a surprise in the next few months or couple of years that the economy is starting to slow; all because of the housing crisis.

    If you think the employee shortage will resolve then I would like to know how you have solved our housing crisis because it necessarily follows that solving the labour shortage crisis involves solving the housing crisis.

    Fairly mental stat in the IT today on the state of the commercial property sector, as told by the industry itself, reflecting the decline of the city centre of Dublin that a lot of us have experienced.

    "This sectoral shift has fundamentally altered the geographical pattern of investment. Dublin 2, the commercial heart of the city, was traditionally the epicentre of property investment in Ireland. This 3.7sq km patch of land once accounted for one fifth of all the capital that was deployed. However, in the first three months of 2022, one solitary asset traded in Dublin 2, a €1.8 million mixed-use property on Camden Street."


    Post edited by Amadan Dubh on


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Could forestry be used to feed a repurposed coal/peat burning power station something like Drax in the UK.

    It is in theory a renewable source of energy and we need something when the wind doesn't blow and oil gas gets scarce and super expensive

    In relation to crop maturity there are schemes that pay the farmer annually



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Given how much timber we need to important annually for other purposes like construction, I imagine burning it would be the last of our priorities.

    Huge amounts of timber imported in this country every year for construction, we arent close to meeting domestic demand - but we could if we converted a very small % of farmland to forestry

    Better availability of timber would go a long way to reducing building costs in this country



  • Administrators Posts: 53,755 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    250 new jobs announced today by Ericsson, good news for Athlone, from a property perspective it's good to see them expand there rather than their Dublin site, though I suspect they'll find it tougher to fill those positions.

    Ericsson to add 250 jobs in Athlone in R&D expansion (rte.ie)



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    They'll just go 5 to a room , 20 to a house etc.

    It's already the norm for Brazilians/Indians.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Based on the current Daft.ie rentals available, they may have problems hiring 250 people.

    2 rentals available in Athlone and surrounds today.

    Did ericsson announce that they would be building housing for these workers as well? Because they'll need to build themselves if they want to bring workers in who aren't already living around Athlone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Maybe that's why Brazilians and Indians in particular are hired; experience in favelas and slums. This is the FF and FG approach, which is in my view almost racist; viewing these developing nations workers as a lower class who are brought in to work the lowest paid jobs and live in appalling conditions. Personally I am ashamed at the country when we bring in these non-EU people in on student visas, with the ability to only work part-time, knowing full well this limits their accommodation options to multi-occupancy bedrooms. It's utterly immoral and unethical; and if that is how the country's economy is going to function then I think Irish people need to look hard at themselves and maybe do some self-reflection, particularly if they tend to look down on the US for its health, immigration or homeless issues. I would strongly question our continued EU membership in this context, if this is largely driven from something coming from the EU; this growth at all costs, race to the bottom warped form of capitalism.

    Post edited by Amadan Dubh on


  • Registered Users Posts: 368 ✭✭keoclassic


    The word is that they are buying a set of new builds and renting them to their workers. Very dissapointing if true, just more of the same, big money chasing private builds and pushing the ordinary Joe soap out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Government: We are doing everything to improve the housing situation!

    Also Government: Here's 25k more non EEA visas to be granted this year over last year which means approximately 10,000 housing units built this year is just enough to cover the increase of those people.

    I really despise this government. People are being trampled on.




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Apparently the jobs can be filled from anywhere in the country.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Want to leave this island? Forget it; pretty desperate situation that the government, so eager to not let demand for housing drop, that they are effectively closing the airports by making them run so slowly people reconsider their emigration plans 😔😜




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    The world is crying out for a recession

    German and Spanish inflation hit new highs



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,603 ✭✭✭Villa05


    Some one should ring the council and inform them of the supply issue. The country is run by idiots

    They were all fully upgraded. I’d say you could walk in and hang up your jacket as far as I know," said Alan, who adds that he could have a list of 50 people in the morning who would love to live there



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    German inflation hitting a 60 year high, further eroding the savings of the more prudent Germans; putting more pressure on the ECB to raise rates and more than just a half/one percent. For a time it will cost more for a mortgage in Ireland, before demand destruction kicks in (as it has already done in the rental market).



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    has it kicked in for rentals? have you any evidence of this?



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,890 ✭✭✭enricoh


    40k work permits, 30 odd thousand Ukrainians so far( could be double that by the end of the year) plus 10s of thousands other immigrants.

    Not an issue pussyhands as the housing minister met builders representatives recently to get them to work longer hours!! From today's times, a mere 122k social houses required now!--


    Housing & Planning

    Number needing social housing ‘may be double’ estimates, at 122,000



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭ballyharpat


    What imbecile thinks a million euro house is a dream house? If you win the lotto. or are in the 1%, or an extremely stable, high paying career.

    This is part of the problem, people thinking that this is living the dream-that's a nightmare, it's carrying on from the 'American dream', it's a nightmare, enslaving yourself to impress others.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Yes - with new build to rent developments seeking €2k+ pm for 1 beds and €2.5k+ pm for 2 beds etc. it is clear that only the housing bodies and charities are engaging with new builds. I have not seen many new developments in Daft the last few months advertised for rent, but see the older ads for new build rentals that are not shifting (Quayside Quarter, Capital Dock, Opus etc.). Similar with student accommodation; we are aware there is a chronic student accommodation shortage, yet there are dozens of ads for whole blocks of student accommodation - however, they are seeking €1k+ pm for a bed in a dorm.

    By the way, all new BTR cannot be described as being for the top end of the market when it seeks €2k for a 1 bed etc. and this is where we have gotten to the last couple of years. This trend will reverse fairly quickly when it gets going but the State is doing its absolute best to prop the whole thing up; it is borderline criminal because it involves borrowing from future generations to prop up the property portfolios of the current generation; and to claim that these rents are sustainable it to live in cuckoo, magic money tree land.



  • Registered Users Posts: 134 ✭✭freemickey



    122k?

    Hold on, I found an interview with the source of all government advice.



    Treating the people of this country like mugs. All you can do is laugh or cry.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Hopefully the Irish public are more clued in then our English neighbours. Because this is within our sovereign control and is a choice our elected officials are making. Nothing to do with EU free movement etc.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 69 ✭✭BettyBoo2011


    @ballyharpat There is no need to make things personal by using insulting language to a complete stranger like ‘imbecile’ or being so derogatory about people who happen to like or want to have a nice home. The sentiment was the market has gone mad, that’s all. These houses were selling for 600k and now they are getting over 1 million. That’s insane inflation. That’s the point I was making.

    we don’t need to insult peoples jobs or lives.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭ballyharpat


    I did not in any way insult peoples jobs or lives, can you please point out where I did that?

    What I am pointing out is the 'train of thought' that, a house has to be in a 'million euro area' to be a nice home. Are you saying anyone that has a home outside of that area, cannot be a nice home? really? take a good look at both of your statements. They are not necessary, and a 'dream home' implies that it's a 'dram' a 'fantasy', but a realistic home is one withing your scale of affordability, regardless of it being 200k or 900k, so please, do not tell me my house is not nice, just because it isnt selling for a million. take a step back, think about why you feel this particular house/area not being in someones affordability range, means their lives are ruined.


    Regarding the market going mad, houses have gone up in the last 3 years everywhere in the world, as can be seen on every economic and accommodation forum, however, inflation and the price of materials has skyrocketed, and the price to build a house, including labor as well as materials has skyrocketed. One thing that we may have to look at this is, this is the new normal, housing is, and always has been , one of the best hedges against inflation. While the market may soften, even drop, it does not mean that the current price of a house is not right. Wages are going up all over the world, they have to, to be able to support the rising cost of living, this will support the rising cost of everything, and it will balance out.

    A company was selling at 15 p/e, then it stops selling as many items, but as inflation hits, the value of the stock is now worth more on a dollar/euro value, but not necessarily producing or selling more.


    While you may take offence, I did not call you an imbecile, but, that way of thinking that you've described cannot be described in any positive way, maybe I'll rephrase it, and call it 'foolish/silly thinking'.


    If it's out of ones budget, and they are stretching to pay for it, can you really encourage that as a way to having a good quality of life?

    I'm baffled, I actually have a headache thinking that this is the way people think, after seeing what was happening only 10 years ago.🚫🤷‍♂️



  • Registered Users Posts: 216 ✭✭babyducklings1


    There is a lot of the American dream type thinking going on here at the moment but the thing is when people stretch themselves too thinly and then what if there is a slow down. It happened here before maybe wouldn’t be as bad this time as banks tightened on lending rules but still when you hear houses going way over the asking prices with multiple bidders. It’s like a runaway cheque book. ..



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    Small landlords forced out of the game in California. Same story as here, tenant protections make it disadvantageous to stay in business. Institutionals scoop up the housing stock, they can scale the risks.




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    institutions are the answer to rental supply. They have the resources to deal with supply. And they don’t have children who suddenly need the house, or want to move in themselves. They just want long leases and long term tenants who maintain a constant revenue stream over many years. It’s more stable for the tenant than a private landlord who might change their mind literally any day.

    the issue is in the way that institutional investors are overseen and controlled and what the state here lets them get away with



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,857 ✭✭✭growleaves


    I think there is a contradiction in what you're saying.

    In theory these large corporations are stable but they allowed to get away with bad behaviour.

    If they are allowed to push small competitors out of the market and gobble up their assets with state help now (I don't accept that this is only a series of coincidences) then what will they be like after massive consolidation of wealth and power?

    These institutionals could be the faceless slumlords of the future.

    What I've found from experience is that large corporations tend to have impersonal mechanisms in place which make wiggle room impossible. At least with a small landlord you can argue the toss.

    The other issue is that landlordism will no longer be a business prospect for ordinary people. Only big business can profit off this real estate gold rush.

    Interesting that this is happening in several 'blue states' simultaneously: California, New York, New Jersey, Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    When this gold rush ends at least we'll have world class infrastructure to show for it :)


    Up to 60% of corporate tax take may be temporary, fiscal council warns


    In other words, these receipts do not stem from additional activity in the Irish economy but from additional multinational profits washing through Ireland. The council warned that a substantial portion of the “excess” revenue has now been absorbed into permanent spending, including on health.


    “This raises the risk that potential reversals of these receipts in future could lead to sharp increases in borrowing requirements to fund recurrent commitments,” it said.


    Corporate tax is now almost on a par with Vat as the second-largest source of revenue for the State. It accounts for almost €1 in every €4 collected in tax.


    However, some 50 per cent of the total comes from 10 large multinationals, including tech giants Apple, Microsoft and Google, which have major European bases in Ireland.


    However, it also noted “an almost-certain fall in corporation tax revenue” at some point in the future.





  • Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    FG and FF definietly are not going to do anything to help the housing crisis now. Last thing they want is for SF to get in and reap the rewards of anything they set in motion.

    They are more likely happy to make it worse now to set it up for the next government to fail.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    FG and FF definietly are not going to do anything to help the housing crisis now. Last thing they want is for SF to get in and reap the rewards of anything they set in motion.

    They are more likely happy to make it worse now to set it up for the next government to fail.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    I know a few people working in Ericsson. They are 100% wfh and people can work from wherever they like in Ireland.

    Also they have a strategy now to poach staffr from other companies on the basis of their WFH policy. I think that will work too. Many people would be very happy to quit a job where they couldnt wfh 5 days a week to one where they could. all other things being equal.



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