Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Exactly that; this corporate tax windfall is not going to exist very soon so what will be there to pick up the slack? More State borrowing? Unlikely, when we are already ridiculously indebted following the bank bailout and recovery (including covid) phases. The State will quite simply have to cut back significantly on its spending and raise taxes.

But workers will rightly protest and get onto the streets when this increase in taxes comes as they will be saying "hey, why not make more aggressive public spending cuts, than raising taxes on us as we did not benefit from any meaningful tax cuts when the going was good?". There will be no accountability for the waste in public spending and failure to invest in a more sustainable economy, which would have included ensuring the property market functioned properly (i.e. it did not increase to Celtic Tiger levels again and consisted of adequate sized homes, reasonably priced and had a lot of supply where it was needed), as property is typically one of, if not the, largest expenditures people have. Knowing the Irish electorate however, they will not call for the heads of politicians that squandered the low interest borrowing and corporate/income tax windfall of the last decade; instead they will suck it up and grumble. Then, and only then after everything is gone, will there be a change in how we go forward with less of a focus on a few MNCs and working to ensuring more of a diversified and sustainable economy.

This is the tragedy when we should, the last few years, have borrowed massively to fund infrastructure projects on a large scale as well as investing in huge home building projects which would ensure that the property market is not in a bubble once again, with the borrowing (from future generations, as with the bailout) being used to re-inflate the market rather than expanding it and ensuring that housing costs did not increase materially from their 2012-2015 levels after the economy got out of recession (2013 was when we said goodbye to a recession and should not have been so pathetic with our cap in hand going out to international investors to carve up the wealth of the country for themselves and also ensuring that the housing costs did not keep soaring). In the same way I was pulling my hair out then, I am pulling my hair out now to say that we still have time to, not avoid a hard landing, but at least invest in the period that will come after the economic slump.

Has this killed it so? Is there another avenue to take to get these built?

They're owned 50% by Mark Fitzgerald isn't it so it really is just a sign of a few people wanting to cash out rather than a whole industry. Green REIT selling their commercial portfolio back in 2018/19 was the ultimate top of the market/canary in the coalmine move.

It's kind of interesting that arguably the only thing stopping the market from correcting has been a pandemic and a war but it was right on the verge of turning just before these events. What doesn't seem to register with some people is that we won't be in this crisis mode forever, which means the market (which was driven up by these crises) will correct as life goes back to normal considering its rise is correlated with us being in extreme situations. To think the current price levels and stress on supply is in any way sustainable is to think we will perpetually be in a crisis and also have a magic money tree. It's madness.

Its risky to buy if you're relying on future equity to be there so you can trade up or across.

If you can settle on your 4eva home it shouldn't be too bad.

There's also the inexorable march of time. Don't want to wait until you're too old to get a mortgage.

Also, to say that if you are in an existing tenancy you are in a good position and should look to stay for a while if you can.

Rents won't be impacted by the inflation we are experiencing (currently they can only go up a max 2% per annum) nor will they be impacted by interest rate rises. So, while it might be hard to hear when you're already getting royally shafted to date compared to mortgage holders, going forward it will be a bit more of a certain and less volatile time compared to other market participants.

Nobody predicted the mad money printing to keep places in business and PUP payments. We should have been in recession then, now the can has been kicked down the road. Warehoused VAT and other debts owed by businesses will come due soon, some will cease trading.

"I would say to all of my friends in Brazil. Please don't come to Ireland. Never. We are living here trying to follow a dream but it’s a nightmare."

...says it all really

Weather alone would have me running back to Brazil or Portugal.

/ends thread.

This right here should be stickied. If nothing intervenes, all those gulible people who borrowed a lot to purchase within the past few years will likely be facing double digit rates when their term is up.

Interesting times