Russia - threadbanned users in OP

He has a point, Putin and this invasion are still in the milder end of the spectrum of brutality that Communist Russia inflicted there, and even on itself.

Nazism is just communism for those not yet fully committed to murder.

Putin and all his senior leadership and Generals have had Communist party membership.

By far the most murderous ideology in history, from which fascism has its roots but it didn't succeed because it did not have the ruthless Killing zeal of communism, it certainly tried.

Been listening to Tom Clonan for quite some time now, he was one of few that said this war would turn into a war of attrition several weeks ago. He said it on national radio. A key statement he makes here is that the new wepons Ukraine are receiving is to stop Putin from taking the black sea coast entirely and that Putin will declare victory once Donbass is occupied and live to fight/rearm another day. Starting to feel that this is the off ramp many feel he needs to back off. It would certainly keep him in power

Putin doesn't need an off ramp. He controls the media in Russia, he can claim anything and people will believe it.

What ever land Russia possesses when Putin declares victory will be short lived. The manpower and resources for Russia to hold on to that land indefinitely makes it an non runner, they would be under constant Ukrainian counter attacks. It's not like once Russia declares victory that all the sanctions will be lifted and Russia will be welcomed back into the civilized world. They are more likely to be declared a terrorist state at this stage!

Some people do believe that Putin will just announce 'victory' some day in the next couple of months and that Russian troops will stop fighting.

But other analysts think he might favour a long drawn out war that lasts well into 2023 or even beyond it (perhaps in the hope that the West will lose interest and stop backing Ukraine). Anyone who thinks the former option and the "off ramp" are a dead cert is being very presumptuous....Putin might be mad enough to have a conflict that goes on for years and see where it takes him.

If Putin avails of an off ramp from the war he has to at least make a statement to that effect especially for home consumption. But, no matter what off ramp strategy he uses - he might even declare a cease fire - if Ukr does not respond to the strategy he uses and not accepting the statements made by Putin eg the whole of The Donbas and Luhansk provinces are now under Russian control and we will be holding a referendum VERY SOON to consolidate its independence and THE UKRAINE army keeps fighting. . Well, IMHO, that means that Putin has to ‘ COME BACK OUT AND START FIGHTING AGAIN.

And if there is a significant time gap between the OFF RAMP /BACK ON RAMP , it will give the Ukr to rearm - and especially with those long range artelliry pieces- subject to the US , mainly staying on board

12 PzH 2000 will join the the war in about two weeks,18 crews have been in training since 11th may.HIMARS should also be joining the battle around the same time.July is going to be a new phase of the war with m777,Ceasars,Crab Howitzers joined by PZH 2000,HIMARS,Anti-ship weapons and fresh newly trained highly motivated troops.

• Caliber: 155 mm
• Barrel length: 52 calibers
• Shooting range: up to 47 km (projectile with improved ballistics), 67 km (active-jet)
• Speed ​​of fire: maximum on the range up to 12 shots per minute

https://defence-ua.com/news/stalo_vidomo_koli_zavershitsja_navchannja_ukrajinskih_artileristiv_na_sau_pzh_2000_i_zsu_pustit_jih_na_peredovu-7647.html

I know. But there's also Hussein, Gadaffi, Mubarak. These things are hard to predict. We'll see

In each of those examples you give, there wasn't an active opposition from a conventional military force as victory was declared. Those had either been defeated, signed a ceasefire or never got involved in the first place.

If Putin thinks he can declare victory at some arbitrary point, even while there is still heavy fighting going on, and have that be swallowed by his people, then it stands to reason that he could have declare victory at almost any point in this conflict and achieve the same result, and do so with much less expenditure of military resources.

Without going into battlefield analysis, I think Putin is dice rolling at this stage.

He'll be quick to "declare victory" and negotiate once he begins to see and process continuous loss of currently occupied territory (you don't buy while the price is dropping).

Commentators say Putin may be contemplating a long war but surely that depends on the possibility of replenishment of equipment and munitions by a third party. Too much has been invested in Ukraine for the West to be content with letting the dog keep what's in its mouth.

I get the impression that whole thing has just been a massive gamble for him.

• He gambled that the threat of war would keep Ukraine neutral and maybe even get them to disarm. (They didn’t)
• He gambled that just throwing his conscripts over from exercises in Belarus to actual war in Ukraine would work. (It didn’t)
• He gambled on his invasion sapping Ukraine of resolve and make the capital surrender in 3 days. (It didn’t)
• He gambled on this invasion being a replay of 2014 where the Russian speaking areas would somehow back him (They didn’t)
• And he gambled on the west wringing their hands at all of this and doing nothing (But alas for him…they keep supplying arms and support)

My guess is that he has no Plan B and is now locked into somehow trying to defeat Kyiv. But it’s been a grinding stalemate, and if for example Georgia were sly about this they’d take the opportunity to take back the Russian state-lets that take up a chunk of their territory. Possibly even a similar fate for Transnistria…but that one will have to be someone other than Moldovia (their army is tiny)

All of that would likely finish him.

It wasn't a gamble. It was a desperation. He and his cronies are like a big parasite on Russia and Russian people. They sucked all they could. The Russian economy was doing badly, so why not to jump on another well developing country, make their nation slaves and parasite even more. It was a survival for him. For long time Russia didn't produce anything worthwhile technologically. They are just eating up their own resources. With the world going green, even that will last for only 20-30 years and then what?

Agreed. He's shown his true nature. Lessons to be taken by smaller states in the EU, like Ireland for example.

But will we take any learnings out of it, to use the current phrase? I doubt it.

The hard unpalatable truth is that we are closer to Birmingham than either Boston or Berlin. And we don't like that message.