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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I did. He didn't. He referred to the range of possible outcomes the experts were talking to him about. One part of that was worse case scenarios. "IF" they did nothing. They weren't "his" predictions at all.

    But the usual Chinese Whispers from syndicated news and people with an agenda we get the a snippet out of context.

    If you ever deal with medical people they mostly tend to hedge their bets and give you a range of out comes to cover their butt. Because medicine isn't a sure thing. Cross a doctor with politician and good luck getting straight answer on anything.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    See how you jumped there from "no lockdown would have results in lots of deaths" to "Leo suggesting 80000" without bridging the gap with an article. In the last post it was MM, now it's Leo. And yet, despite the apparent media consensus and narrative you claim, you're unable to back it up with a single article. Every time you are cornered in a lie you try to shift the goalposts.

    Your posts are just exercises in fallacies and lies. The fallacy being that if Ireland, or other random countries, followed Sweden's approach it would have lead to Swedish results. Or that people in other countries would have acted as the Swedish people in terms of adherence to government recommendations rather than restrictions.

    There's a world of difference between Sweden taking the approach they did as a single country (with its natural advantages of density and location) in a situation where other countries take covid seriously & lots of countries doing so.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    As Jac said, it's the first hit on google (though I am not a premium member so I cannot see the whole article, I caveat).

    We've been through the population density thing before, I've reiterated it multiple times in fact.

    As I said, you just end up going round and round in circles on this thread.

    Population density in Sundbyberg 5,047.64 /km2 and Stockholm 4,861.76/km2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_areas_in_Sweden). Dublin is 4,708/km2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dublin).

    The level of restrictions in Ireland was entirely disproportionate. I agree some mitigation was required (along with voluntary measures), but house arrest for months on end (5/20km/county bound) was totally irrational.

    "In justice and law, house arrest (also called home confinement, home detention, or, in modern times, electronic monitoring) is a measure by which a person is confined by the authorities to their residence. Travel is usually restricted, if allowed at all. House arrest is an alternative to being in a prison while awaiting trial or after sentencing" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_arrest).

    Enough links for you? I've one for every claim there and even one for JacDaniel. I don't think I am going to bother posting in this thread again because we are going around and around in circles.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,631 ✭✭✭CalamariFritti


    So we locked down on an off-chance or what? Just to be sure to be sure? Lads get a grip on yourselves. The narrative was huge deaths without lockdown. No alternative! Claire Byrne. George Lee. We're all going to die. Wear your mask. Stay at home. Money no object. Every fkn day & night. For the bones of two years. Anyone who even dared to say hold-on-a-sec was a reckless granny killer. Don't be acting the maggot as if none of that happened. Its not that long ago.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Another lie. Where's the quote 80000 if we don't lockdown?

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Did you even read my post?

    I doubt it. You are forcing me to quote myself yet again:

    "(though I am not a premium member so I cannot see the whole article, I caveat)."

    Why don't you attack the other points of my post - the population density one for example, or the house arrest one - oh, wait - you can't.

    P.S. despite the fact that I am unable to read the full article (READ ABOVE) - it's a bit of a tautology to say that 'no lockdown' is equivalent to 'worse case scenario' in the eyes of Leo.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It's a discussion board, a forum. That's it's sole purpose. I'm not sure how that's unexplained.

    I'm only posting in reply to others. So we are all harping on. Again that's the point of a forum.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    My lockdown didn't last two years. I went on holidays. Other people traveled in and out of the country pretty much all the time. The main reason restrictions were extended were surges due to lifting restrictions.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Would you have advocated for an 18-24 month total lockdown then? Until the vaccines were available/milder variant?

    Are you also saying that you didn't obey the restrictions?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    So after multiple times of asking, no one is able to backup the claim that 80000 would die if we didn't lockdown. I think it can be safely be put into the garbage bin of lies and fake news.

    Sweden is a low density country surrounded by other low density countries. It has the highest number of single person households in the EU. It is in a very different position to Ireland vis a vis UK or indeed the UK itself. Sweden's approach simply does not scale. To expect Swedish results to follow in a situation where everyone adopted that approach is utterly without foundation.

    This is what I wrote: "There's a world of difference between Sweden taking the approach they did as a single country (with its natural advantages of density and location) in a situation where other countries take covid seriously & lots of countries doing so."

    Sweden's approach in 2020 was wrong. It lead to needless deaths. This can be seen from its 2020 excess mortality compared to the countries any intellectually honest person would first compare Sweden to in any other circumstance - its similar near neighbours. That is the view I express on this thread.

    If you want to discuss 'house arrest' in general, well if no one follows you down that rabbit hole it is not because they can't challenge that view but that this is not the thread for it. Similarly I'm not trying to defend all of Ireland's restrictions as optimal, or agree with all of them -> did we need Level 3 or Level 5 at certain points; could establishments have reopened earlier in summer 2021 etc but that's not what this thread is about.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Let's get this straight. You posted an article that you can't read because it's behind a paywall. Did it not occur to you that perhaps others might not be able to read it either? Seriously.

    Also here's a tip if something is behind a paywall. It's likely syndicated somewhere else for free. But since it's miss quoted you'll have to be creative on how you search. If you do it right you'll find the full details of what the experts actually said.

    If you are reading the Indo you can do better.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "So after multiple times of asking, no one is able to backup the claim that 80000 would die if we didn't lockdown. I think it can be safely be put into the garbage bin of lies and fake news." - your style of debate is strange, it is unfriendly. If you believe that lockdown was the best thing we could do (best case scenario) - then, as I said, it's tautologous to say that 'not locking down' should equate to the worst case scenario - don't you agree?

    "Sweden is a low density country surrounded by other low density countries." - If you look at Sweden as a whole, but the urban population density (as I have pointed out numerous times) is higher than Irelands.

    "any intellectually honest person would first compare Sweden to in any other circumstance - its similar near neighbours." - as any 'intellectually honest' person would ALSO compare them with all other nations that went through the same pandemic.

    "Sweden's approach in 2020 was wrong. It lead to needless deaths." - Ireland's approach was wrong, it lead to unnecessary infringement of (non-absolute, I agree) fundamental human rights (liberty, freedom of association). Something that the Swedish commission mentioned actually:

    “The state should not limit the freedom of the individual more than is necessary to limit a dangerous sickness.” (https://www.thelocal.se/20220225/swedens-pandemic-strategy-fundamentally-correct-coronavirus-commission-2/)

    "If you want to discuss 'house arrest' in general, well if no one follows you down that rabbit hole it is not because they can't challenge that view but that this is not the thread for it." - It can't be challenged, it is fact.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Care to share? I've shared links... You can return the favour, perhaps?

    'If you are reading the Indo you can do better.'

    Educate me, what is wrong with the indo (I am not Irish, English is not my first language)?

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    We never had total lockdown. The restrictions constantly changed. Buy June 2020 most travel restrictions were lifted.

    A year into the pandemic.

    "....February 2021, the government imposed testing and quarantine rules on incoming travellers for the first time..."

    Total lockdown. Lol.

    I couldn't obey house arrest. Because there was never house arrest. Some countries did have that with apartments locked up and food delivered by the state. Some countries actually did shut their borders.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FYI

    "Avoiding 20,000 deaths would likely require the imposition of public health restrictions. “We would never shut down the country, put people out of their jobs, and close the borders for the flu season. But 20,000 to 80,000 [deaths] was a whole other ball game,” Varadkar later said."

    So, 20-80k deaths if no lockdown.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There you go.

    How many did Ireland have 8k.

    With respect you shared a link many can't read. I (personally) don't find the indo that reliable.



  • Registered Users Posts: 30,582 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Nope, that's now how it works. The article doesn't say 80000 deaths if we don't lockdown. Or you'd be able to pull that as a quote.

    You adding a "so" at the end doesn't make it so.

    20000 to 80000 deaths was the range of deaths in a worse case scenario in which society (government, businesses, citizens, medical facilities) did nothing to mitigate the effects of covid and carried on as if it was flu season.

    The reason for the range was uncertainty at that stage of the fatality rate.

    As I wrote hours ago challenging the original false claim:

    It meant not just government restrictions but changes in behaviour, working from home, distancing, isolation, travel changes and also development of treatments, hospital practices etc etc

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119158102/#Comment_119158102

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There seems to an element of doom scrolling to all this. People seem to look for the worst case scenario in the news and ignore the context.

    Some were more effected economically and socially than others.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Well now we are making some progress. So you admit that 20 - 80 thousand was the number of deaths we were working with.

    Pretty huge numbers like I said. Sweden have twice our population so it's only fair that we double those numbers to 40 - 160000 for them?

    And yet it never happened. They have less than half of the lower end of the scale after 2 whole years.

    So you obviously agree that Sweden proved those numbers are rubbish?


    Sweden's lack of deaths is a real headache for all the many people that pulled crazy numbers out of their models and all the governments that based policy on said models.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It seems like you don't understate how "worst case" and "predictions" work. If you are expecting them to match.

    Say we take 20k as the figure "if we do nothing" which was the median. We didn't do nothing and had 8k deaths.

    We could however have taken the "best case" estimates that it wasn't fatal (like a cold) and have no deaths and thus do nothing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Sweden actually had more than twice Irelands deaths. So your estimate is wrong.

    Which is quite an achievement considering you have two years of hindsight and the actual figures to work with.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't know what point you are trying to make here but it's certainly not landing.

    Sweden with no lockdown for 2 years have 18k deaths with a population of 10.5m.

    Ireland with one of Europe's strictest lockdowns and half the population have 7k deaths.

    We also have a considerably younger population.


    Based on the data, you obviously agree that Sweden haven't done badly then?



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Considering your estimates were wrong even with the figures to hand I'm not surprised it's not landing.

    Sweden have twice Irelands population but more than twice Irelands deaths. I'm not sure what's difficult about that.

    Or to put it another way. In trying to pick ugly friends, you've actually picked one that's better looking, statistical speaking by picking Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    If you prefer to live somewhere with no lockdown (but still restrictions) and more deaths, then the choice was clear. Lots of people moved home. The borders weren't closed. I know people who traveled back and forward between countries numerous times. If you didn't then you've voted with your feet.

    It's a bit like two businesses in the same industry. One decides to shut down. The other changes to delivery and/or online business. Their mindset is revealed by their inaction or action.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    So we finally agree!

    Sweden had slightly more deaths than Ireland despite the fact that they had no lockdown and we had 2 years of very strict restrictions. And they have an older population.

    Like I've said all along, Sweden are mid table.

    But they've provided undeniable evidence that hard lockdown didn't prevent huge death tolls.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,243 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    So Sweden had more deaths.

    So lighter restrictions = more deaths.

    You're still going out of your way to look for ugly friends.

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    I posted a retort to your point but it appears to have been deleted

    You're engaged in a logical fallacy of asking for proof that something didn't happen. You need to be mentally astute enough to understand this fallacy.

    The logic you are relying on would lead to a situation such as this;

    Another poster told me that you used to beat your deceased wife, ie something that never happened

    Using your logic until you provide evidence that there is no evidence which you can never do because it's an event that didn't happen you remain a wife beater



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Exactly, no restrictions will lead to more deaths. But not the huge numbers you saw in the media. A very marginal amount.

    Every country in the world could bring down COVID deaths if we all issued stay at home orders for the rest of the year.

    But of course society can't function if our only goal is to reduce deaths.



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And thus we are back around to the original point that I made when I first posted on this thread: it's a value judgement.

    Societies that value safety were content to offer up liberty to the state who implemented strong coercive measures. Hobbesian.

    Societies that value liberty were less content to do so, at the price of a small increase in the level of risk.

    Societies who could not afford lockdowns are another conversation but do bear in mind that lockdown was a luxury for rich nations.

    We now know where Irish society places value. Let's see how it reacts to the next crisis.



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