Irish Housing/residential property market

Rents are increasing (for new rentals), yields are increasing (for new rentals) and number of rentals are falling. You cant just look at residential property in Ireland in terms of just returns. The risk side of the equation is bad and getting worse. There is a constant tinkering with legislation (all anti-landlord) restricting ability to adjust rents or evict tenants (good or bad). If you get stuck with a bad tenant, it can take 2 years plus to get a successful eviction. Add up 2 years of no rent, legal costs and cost of property damage when you eventually do get a property back. Civil proceedings against the tenant (assuming you can find him/her) may yield a few Euro per week against the tens of thousands you can lose.

Forget tax, forget rent controls, forget capital appreciation, the risk of a sting from a bad tenant is just too much to make the yields worthwhile.

"Tell me how the story ends now"

If We have a visit the old Chestnut of "Supply and Demand" if usually is the best starting point in a question like this.

As mentioned already there will be buyers in the wings to purchase at a price affordable to them (these are individual buyers) - Whom are their competitors?

As mentioned, interest rates will play a part In individual decisions, but many in that boat too.

Individual Landlords are leaving the market - Why, and Whom are their competitors?

Is Wage inflation high or low? - Who benefits from this answer?

Who is Buying what, where and why?

Genuine question, how will prices drop when supply is at an all time low and demand is only going to increase? Its basic economics, right?

The only way I see prices dropping is if an 08-style recession hits and people lose their jobs en masse, or markets plummet hard and those pesky foreign investment funds need to sell up some of their property portfolios to cover their losses.

Negative equity these days would require price drops of in excess of 10%.

Given the latent demand for housing, I can't see that happening.

If house prices stabilise, or fall by up to 10%, then there won't be any negative equity.

There will be no drop in prices for the simple reason it is now costing even more to new build than what is out there. I see another hike in prices due to low supply and the cost of Building. Add to that wage inflation, Government help to buy, Government social housing competing for limited stock and the days of picking up a 3 bed semi for €260k are coming to an end. I predict the next price hike will see average house prices pushing €400k.

Then we'll get the moaners and begrudges out in force. It will be the talk of talks