General British politics discussion thread

BlitzKrieg · 06-06-2022 5:32pm

Times is reporting that Boris Johnson has told conservatives "He Would do it again" in relation to partygate

https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533838873909940224

I cant tell what his actual plan here is?

devnull · 06-06-2022 5:45pm

Latest figures from Daily Mail deputy political editor show 136 public statements of support for Johnson.

Telegraph reckons that the rebels estimate they have at least 150.

Personally think he will win by fairly small margin. Anything over 140 voting against him is dreadful result for him.

Nody · 06-06-2022 6:22pm

I think he'll end up in mid to high 60s percentage of approval; anything below that is bad and above low 70s would be a strong showing.

Itssoeasy · 06-06-2022 7:32pm

John Lamont who was PPS to foreign secretary Liz truss has resigned and said he’d Voted against Boris Johnson and amazingly said he’d spoken to his constituents and asked them what he should do and that’s why he did it, which is weirdly Noble. He did hint that others like him may vote no and not disclose it. I think Boris Johnson will win but it’s going to closer then he and his supporters believed it would be.

pixelburp · 06-06-2022 7:46pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166498#Comment_119166498

Had a super quick check and in 2019, Lamont won his seat, albeit while losing support, the SNP gaining more. Looks like a tight enough race, and given it's a Border constituency in Scotland, is quite the surprise given they tend to be Tory strongholds IIRC. I see 4 of the 6 Scottish Tories have come out openly against Johnson - they know which way the wind blows up there.

Itssoeasy · 06-06-2022 7:55pm

It might just be the political correspondents doing it to hype things up but there’s names I’ve not heard of there’s a few “oh didn’t expect that MP to vote no.” Tweets around. As I said it appears(and we all know what appearances can be) that this is closer then many expected even if many expected Boris Johnson to win.

breezy1985 · 06-06-2022 8:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119165597#Comment_119165597

Since Thatcher haven't more Tory PMs been taken down by the Tories than by elections. Only Major was beaten in an election and Cameron stepped down after setting off "a bomb".

pixelburp · 06-06-2022 8:31pm

Doesn't auger well. This via a Guardian correspondent:

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1533893309223018497

Nody · 06-06-2022 9:04pm

Boris Johnson has survived the confidence vote in his leadership by 211 votes to 148, Sir Graham Brady has confirmed.

Mr Johnson won by a majority of 63 votes.

That's a lot worse than I expected; that's 58,8% behind him of his party (Theresa May had a majority of 83 votes as comparison)...

breezy1985 · 06-06-2022 9:29pm

Not a hope it will happen but are those 148 MPs technically enough to call a general election when added to the opposition votes ?

Itssoeasy · 06-06-2022 9:39pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119166992#Comment_119166992

Yeah I think it does but as you say 148 MPs have voted no confidence but I doubt all of them would vote for a general election given the polling.

10000maniacs · 06-06-2022 9:47pm

It means Johnson has lost the power to make any decisions within his party. He needs to get down and dirty in the trenches and agree everything with those 148 Tories before deciding anything.

Dead man walking in other words.

breezy1985 · 06-06-2022 10:13pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119167041#Comment_119167041

Ya very few will want to risk their own seats.

spacecoyote · 06-06-2022 11:21pm

Saw some stat that said that if you take out the Conservative MPs that are ministers/on the payroll, 75% votes against Boris which basically means its bought support, so pretty rough numbers, but I'm sure old BJ is playing it off as an overwhelming show of support.

Also saw an old Rees Mogg clip where he stated how terrible it was that 117 voted against May in her VoNC and it was terrible result. Again assuming he's not saying anything similar tonight

Rjd2 · 07-06-2022 12:17am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119167197#Comment_119167197

Tiverton by election coming this month and while betting can't be trusted Liberal Democrats are hugely favored with the bookies to win this at 1/5 or so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiverton_and_Honiton_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29

For more than 20 years that has been a safe seat for Tories, if they lose that and likely they will, oh boy their will be a lot of very worried Tory MP'S .

If I were one of the rebel organisers I'd have waited until then as it would have been much trickier for Boris to win a no confidence vote.

ancapailldorcha · 07-06-2022 3:35pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119167448#Comment_119167448

He said Johnson could win by a single vote and it'd be fine. It's very hypocritical of him to be honest but par for the course.

awec · 07-06-2022 3:43pm

I guess the argument could be made that politically this is actually a good result for Labour as the longer Tory infighting goes on the more damage they do to themselves. And now they have a PM who is seriously weakened.

If Johnson was removed Labour lose the easy target, and it's not like removing BJ is likely to see a shift in Tory policy since his replacement is probably going to be cut from a similar cloth given who is at the top echelons of that party these days.

ancapailldorcha · 07-06-2022 3:52pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170014#Comment_119170014

I'd agree.

Realistically, Johnson would be replaced by either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak. Of the two, Sunak is the least incompetent. He has come out of the pandemic fairly well but is very much a tax cuts for the rich character. Truss is a political chameleon and relatively unknown until recently.

Either way, the party doesn't just need to get rid of Johnson, it needs a whole cultural change and there isn't sufficient time before the next election for that to happen. If he goes, he'll be replaced by Truss or Sunak but they won't have time to do much to boost the party's chances. Both are fairly loyal to Johnson but will be taking a poisoned chalice due to partygate.

breezy1985 · 07-06-2022 10:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170050#Comment_119170050

Truss comes across as a vengeful and vindictive individual. Looks like the kind of person who keeps a big list of enemies.

I would also be very worries about that she would have absolutely no problem stamping all over the poor and needy without a second thought and at a level even odd for Tories.

Rjd2 · 07-06-2022 10:59pm

Truss if pressed would call herself a libertarian and would govern ala Thatcher if she could.

For what its worth, Jeremy Hunt is betting fav to be the next leader, I don't see it but the logic obviously he he has the easiest path to the final two with having ran before and built up contacts . Penny Morduant who is 2nd fav who has flown under the radar but liked by the base , Truss 3rd fav, Tom Tugendhat 4th fav and Sunak trailing in 5th place.

Ben Wallace and Nadhim Zahawai not far behind so its clearly really open.

ZeroThreat · 07-06-2022 11:16pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119171694#Comment_119171694

Tbh, that sounds precisely like a description of Patel, but even the most right wing parts of the Tory party realise she's probably clinically insane too so she doesn't have a chance at ever being PM. Plus the Tory member base would probably baulk at the idea of a non-white PM.

PommieBast · 08-06-2022 12:54am

@ZeroThreat

Plus the Tory member base would probably baulk at the idea of a non-white PM.

Then again I wonder about how many traditional (big-C) Conservatives balked at Boris's not exactly traditional lifestyle. They will swallow anything for power.

Tom Mann Centuria · 08-06-2022 1:32am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172283#Comment_119172283

Old Etonians get a free pass to do what they want old boy.

breezy1985 · 08-06-2022 9:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172049#Comment_119172049

Ya I would see Truss and Patel as similar except Patel has a clear vision and policy (an awful sick one) where as Truss would be more populist like Johnson.

As for non white people I honestly don't see the UK as ready for PM Sunak/Patel/Zahawai. Also name wise PM €unt is gonna be a fun one.

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2022 11:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172724#Comment_119172724

When talented MP's like Grieve, Soames and Clarke were purged or driven out of the party, this was the inevitable result.

Truss was a Lib Dem abolitionist who wanted to legalise cannabis. Now, it seems that if you don't like her principles, she has others. The Economist has produced a few nauseating op eds about her being talented but I don't see it. Patel is too toxic IMO for anyone outside the Tory party's own membership. Zahawai is an unknown and Sunak's star has faded.

Funnily enough, Javid has accidentally said the quiet bit out loud regarding the NHS:

Jaws dropped in and outside Westminster today after the Health Secretary likened the NHS to a now-defunct video rental store in a world dominated by streaming services, saying the country has a “Blockbuster healthcare system in the age of Netflix”.

Downing Street said Sajid Javid told a Cabinet meeting earlier today that it is “no longer simply an option to stick to the status quo”, and the Government had set the NHS a target of “dramatically improving productivity” to save £4.5bn per year.

I feel like this is laying the ground for more private sector involvement in the NHS, specifically Tory donors.

https://www.cityam.com/healthcare-jaws-drop-as-sajid-javid-calls-nhs-a-defunct-blockbuster-video-rental-store-in-the-age-of-netflix/

pixelburp · 08-06-2022 12:10pm

Hard to see this as anything but the opening salvos of further, even aggressive, privatisation all right. The NHS as the British like to wax lyrical about seems increasingly a thing of the past. The ghost of Clement Attlee must be driven to despair.

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2022 12:19pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119173446#Comment_119173446

In fairness, it's creaking and has been for some time. It needs some form of change given the pace at which UK society is ageing.

Ian Dunt shared this:

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1534154836488364032

This is clearly unsustainable. I myself have a foot pain issue I just have to live with as my local NHS walkin centres are gone I can't physically see my GP. It's absurd.

breezy1985 · 08-06-2022 12:34pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119173491#Comment_119173491

I don't understand are you saying you don't have a GP anymore ?

As for Javid I would see him as another very callous dangerous individual. Bit like Patel and Sunak I don't think we are heading for PM Javid.

ancapailldorcha · 08-06-2022 12:43pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119173572#Comment_119173572

I do. I'd to settle for a phone appointment.

Javid as a disciple of Ayn Rand and the tea party movement of the American right. He opposed the concept of the NHS for ideological reasons.

serfboard · 08-06-2022 1:47pm

A cabinet of the monumentally stupid and the callously cruel. All the talents.

General British politics discussion thread

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