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Sweden avoiding lockdown

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It seems like you don't understate how "worst case" and "predictions" work. If you are expecting them to match.

    Say we take 20k as the figure "if we do nothing" which was the median. We didn't do nothing and had 8k deaths.

    We could however have taken the "best case" estimates that it wasn't fatal (like a cold) and have no deaths and thus do nothing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Sweden actually had more than twice Irelands deaths. So your estimate is wrong.

    Which is quite an achievement considering you have two years of hindsight and the actual figures to work with.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I don't know what point you are trying to make here but it's certainly not landing.

    Sweden with no lockdown for 2 years have 18k deaths with a population of 10.5m.

    Ireland with one of Europe's strictest lockdowns and half the population have 7k deaths.

    We also have a considerably younger population.


    Based on the data, you obviously agree that Sweden haven't done badly then?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Considering your estimates were wrong even with the figures to hand I'm not surprised it's not landing.

    Sweden have twice Irelands population but more than twice Irelands deaths. I'm not sure what's difficult about that.

    Or to put it another way. In trying to pick ugly friends, you've actually picked one that's better looking, statistical speaking by picking Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    If you prefer to live somewhere with no lockdown (but still restrictions) and more deaths, then the choice was clear. Lots of people moved home. The borders weren't closed. I know people who traveled back and forward between countries numerous times. If you didn't then you've voted with your feet.

    It's a bit like two businesses in the same industry. One decides to shut down. The other changes to delivery and/or online business. Their mindset is revealed by their inaction or action.



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]



    So we finally agree!

    Sweden had slightly more deaths than Ireland despite the fact that they had no lockdown and we had 2 years of very strict restrictions. And they have an older population.

    Like I've said all along, Sweden are mid table.

    But they've provided undeniable evidence that hard lockdown didn't prevent huge death tolls.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    So Sweden had more deaths.

    So lighter restrictions = more deaths.

    You're still going out of your way to look for ugly friends.

    Post edited by Flinty997 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    I posted a retort to your point but it appears to have been deleted

    You're engaged in a logical fallacy of asking for proof that something didn't happen. You need to be mentally astute enough to understand this fallacy.

    The logic you are relying on would lead to a situation such as this;

    Another poster told me that you used to beat your deceased wife, ie something that never happened

    Using your logic until you provide evidence that there is no evidence which you can never do because it's an event that didn't happen you remain a wife beater



  • Posts: 4,727 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Exactly, no restrictions will lead to more deaths. But not the huge numbers you saw in the media. A very marginal amount.

    Every country in the world could bring down COVID deaths if we all issued stay at home orders for the rest of the year.

    But of course society can't function if our only goal is to reduce deaths.



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    And thus we are back around to the original point that I made when I first posted on this thread: it's a value judgement.

    Societies that value safety were content to offer up liberty to the state who implemented strong coercive measures. Hobbesian.

    Societies that value liberty were less content to do so, at the price of a small increase in the level of risk.

    Societies who could not afford lockdowns are another conversation but do bear in mind that lockdown was a luxury for rich nations.

    We now know where Irish society places value. Let's see how it reacts to the next crisis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Just to add to that. I'm not saying Sweden did badly. I'm saying it could have done a lot better considering its advantages. The main reason for that "relative" under performance was its light restrictions. You can argue that economically its did better and thats more important to you than in your opinion a statistically minor number of extra people dying. Each to their own and all that.

    Countries in northern Europe have generally experienced much lower mortality rates throughout the pandemic. Some Nordic nations have experienced almost no excess deaths at all. The exception is Sweden, which imposed some of the continent’s least restrictive social-distancing measures during the first wave.

    From a difference source

    To the possible disappointment of both its supporters and detractors, Sweden’s estimated excess death of 56/100,000 is about half the UK’s and, while it is above those of other Nordic nations, it still looks flattering relative to the majority of EU countries.

    Also

     A single number for each country is unlikely to capture the full complexity of vastly different socioeconomic situations and two years of often inconsistent policies. Lower-middle income countries in eastern Europe and South America have been particularly badly affected, probably because of a relatively unfavourable age pyramid, low vaccination coverage and disruption to their economy and healthcare systems. Richer countries tended to do better overall, with the exception of the US, which fared quite poorly with 144/100,000 excess deaths.


    A few countries kept excess deaths close to, or even below zero, including Australia, Iceland, Japan, Luxembourg, Mongolia and New Zealand. Being rich and geographically isolated helps.

    Ultimately this is forum for discussion and/or distraction and to waste some time. So why discuss Sweden? Why not.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This whole experience has been (and will be in the future, for historians) - a fascinating study in human psychology. Whichever side of the debate you are on, I think it boils down to the classical thought of scepticism vs stoicism. Sceptics are those that argue that there is a better/more balanced way to have done this (voluntary measures, isolate the vulnerable, for example) vs the stoics (who believe that the ends justify the means and that we ought to just put up with it for the utilitarian calculus of greater good).

    To my, somewhat libertarian mind, the stoic approach is a totalitarian one because it implies that human beings are simply tools of collective national policy, as opposed to individuals. This is not the norm for a liberal democracy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Its value judgment. Sure. No argument.

    But as academic exercise in stats, there a bit of data distortion going on. That before you consider the deliberate under reporting thats going on by some countries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Regardless of subject, if you pick the extreme end of a range of estimates, its unlikely to ever to happen. That's why its a range. Its also an estimate. More so if you leave out the conditions the estimate (prerequisite) that the range is based on.

    If you believe the media 100% and don't do your own critical analysis. Then thats a whole different issue. That before you get into tabloid reporting and click bait journalism.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Economically, Sweden have done worse than most of their neighbours and Ireland, but economic performance is not going to be slowly down to pandemic measures.

    What we can say is that the disastrous herd immunity measures followed by relatively similar measures post vaccination rollout did them no favours economically.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    Apart from the fact no one can show it was a disaster so therefore it wasn't

    Sweden is the real winner, it maintained the values of democracy

    Every country who locked down has shown itself to be totalitarian, that's how genocides of hutu / tutsi / jews / famine irish happens. Your all knowing government says do this or else



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,342 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Firstly Ireland is not a totalitarian state , even in our worst lockdown, and secondly if you guys believe that you really should be posting it somewhere else, because it is pure fantasy .



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    What you mean like the whole world being under 2/5km house arrest with police stationed on the roads to control your movement's

    Not totalitarian at all



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You think it's not possible for a democracy to behave as if it was a totalitarian state? Or in a despotic manner? Well, 2020 proved that it can.

    Ireland in 2020/21 was an oppressive state that allowed almost zero individual liberty/autonomy. I have friends abroad who say now that Ireland is the land of the lockdown, not the land of the welcome atmosphere. (Recall that I'm not Irish)

    That's fact, not fantasy.

    It might not have been oppressive to you personally, or even the majority, but then we have tyranny of the majority. If you were not affected then lucky you.

    If you think being confined to 5km for months on end, being told who we could meet, where we could go, who was allowed to work, coupled with checkpoints is not totalitarian, then frankly I'm surprised, and concerned.

    Do you think that lockdown (of healthy/uninfected people) is a libertarian strategy? Is that where lockdown comes from, a country that prides itself on individual liberty? Nope, it comes from a totalitarian state.

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Limited temporary health restrictions are not what defines a totalitarian state.



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  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Limited, temporary, sure - we know that now.

    But, remember - we didn't know at the time how long they would be in place for. They are over, for now at least.

    I am not optimistic about how this state (or certain other EU states) are going to react to future crises.

    Government's have now learnt the enormous power that public fear gives to them. Let's hope that fact is not taken advantage of.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Correct, but a lot of our restrictions had nothing to do with limiting the virus spread and some increased spread of the virus. Locking up beaches and mountains, funnelling people to indoor gatherings was moronic.

    Now, that was down to incompetence rather than totalitarianism, but shows the dangers of too much government power.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    My first and ultimate major complaint with this was the closure of/denial of access to outdoor areas and zero risk activities. It was unscientific. It was as scientific as the street spraying in China. Denying access to outdoor areas and forcing urban communities together was wrong.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,824 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I'd suggest 'governments' knew this already.

    The restrictions were always going to be limited and temporary for very obvious reasons.

    It's such a pity that everything has to be pointed out.

    It's crazy how some can twist logic and rewrite history to come to the conclusion that Ireland is a totalitarian state.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Didn't say it was, said it acted in that manner. There is a distinction there. Lockdown (of healthy/uninfected people) is a totalitarian strategy copied from a totalitarian state. It's such a pity that I have to point that out.

    I actually think it wasn't obvious that the restrictions (all of them) would be temporary, because Covid will be with us for decades, maybe forever now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There are always rules. Even this forum has rules there is no free speech here for example.

    Well people are stupid. They had parties of hundreds of people on the beach.

    You can't travel to mountains and beaches without travelling. Which invariably means contact with people outside your immediate social circle.

    The virus traveled around the country in people. It didn't magic its way around.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,824 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    It's a logical move when you literally don't know what you are dealing with.

    Blatently obvious that restrictions of that initial level could not go on for ever.....



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That's why I said ALL restrictions, not just the initial level.

    People are unable to travel to the mountains/beach alone or with only 'household' members? Without going in a shop, or local (5km) garage for fuel? News to me.

    A respected journo wrote a column about Ireland during the lockdowns (https://www.irishcentral.com/opinion/others/irelands-brutal-covid-lockdown)

    One of the opening paragraphs 'Ireland in the time of Covid is a totalitarian state.'

    Anyway, this is all off thread chatter.

    Sweden didn't lockdown, it's world didn't end.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What people can or should do and what they actually do is two different things.

    We had lockdown the world didn't end.

    Unless you died from the virus, then it did.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    'What people can or should do and what they actually do is two different things.' - this is such an interesting statement and it betrays your pessimism about people and their personal responsibility. If people are told of the risk, and treated like adults - on the whole, they will behave like adults. (there will always be exceptions, of course)

    'We had lockdown the world didn't end.' - for some it did in some ways, at least during, as well as after. Think about all the small businesses that now no longer exist. Or those who were unemployed, particularly in the younger generations.

    'Unless you died from the virus, then it did.' - people died under lockdown with the virus as well as when we were not under lockdown (granted, numbers are different). As an older person, who knows many older (vulnerable) people - I'd have preferred to live with freedom united with risk as opposed to restrictions with safety. I'd (and they) prefer to spend my last days with people of my choosing, in areas of my choosing - not the states. What happened was that the choice was eliminated (I said this before). Who should decide that? Government officials, or the individual? I know who I think....



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    It's how societies work. They have rules. If you don't like the rules find a different society. If you choose not to then you've voted with your feet about which society you prefer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭jackboy


    We knew very early it spread when too many people were indoors with poor ventilation. That’s how it spread around the country. Closing beaches and mountains obviously increased that type of mixing. It’s a bit disturbing that people still think there was any science or good reasons for closing beaches and mountains.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    "If you don't like it, get out?" Is that what you are saying?

    What you are also saying is that each individual is nothing more than a building block for a given society. That's an incredibly inhumane way to treat humans. Humans are not simply tools for collective national policy, I've said this numerous times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I'm saying that's how a society works.

    You're protesting about the rules of a society you've chosen to join.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There were super spreader events outside.

    Sking, sports events, cyclists stopping for lunch, parties on beaches, horse racing, extended family garden parties, holidays, travel, camping.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭jackboy


    This is not true and you know it. The science showed that outdoor activities were vastly less risky than indoor activities with poor ventilation. I noticed you tried to sneak a couple of indoor activities into your list to reinforce your point, but it just indicates you don’t believe what you are saying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,709 ✭✭✭jackboy


    Sweden did have significant restrictions. Their high death rate was caused by not protecting the elderly and vulnerable in time, same as other countries that had high death rates. We made the same mistake at the start remember.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Look at their 2020 deaths data vs. other countries.

    Look at their economic performance overall.

    Neither are good compared to others.

    Sweden got back to average after a successful vaccine rollout and bringing in restrictions.

    The 2020 approach won't be followed by other countries (and hindsight is everything but betting on herd immunity for a newly emerged mutagenic virus is very very very stupid).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,793 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    What indoor activities???

    Less risk is not no risk. You've just conceeded that outdoor activities do (and) did spread the virus.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,225 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I fail to see where you believe Sweden "maintained the values of democracy".

    I would not see it as upholding the principles of democracy when a government dictates that the parents of a child infected with a highly transmissible virus during a pandemic must still send their child to school or suffer prosecution and the possibility of their child being removed from their care, as was the case in Sweden.

    There was very little democratic about Sweden`s herd immunity strategy up until October 2020 when the local authorities regained the power to make their own health care decisions and forced the government to back them, sideline Tegnell and the FHM, and put an end to the strategy.

    Up to that point the Swedish government were very hands off, but by October when from test results it was obvious the strategy was a failure, but with Tegnell still determined to pursue it while in denial of them having a second wave and intent on increasing the numbers at public events, lifting restrictions on care homes and telling the vulnerable it was safe for them to mingle in general society again, the local authorities gun to their heads finally forced them to act.

    I don`t see where there was much of anything democratic about the strategy to begin with. It was devised by FHM unelected officials based on the flawed belief of a then private citizen Giesecke, that within a few weeks herd immunity would be achieved. Rather than acting democratically from what I see the Swedish government acted on the contrary until forced too by the local authorities. It wasn`t so much a laissez-faire government response to an epidemic, but more a case of them staying well away from it as long as they could hoping to claim credit if it worked, while having someone to blame if it did not.

    Add that to the findings of their Covid Inquiry report, should their be another similar epidemic, I believe safe to say that neither a herd immunity strategy or the government response will be the same as it was to this one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Don't Chute!


    The second paragraph in this article is interesting considering people have suggested the same here a few times. And this is from the much ballyhooed inquiry itself!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Don't Chute!


    Sorry can’t paste the link for some reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    Yet still no data 🤔



  • Registered Users Posts: 110 ✭✭therapist3


    Em the relevant dataset is *The World* because it affected everybody not just Sweden and Denmark

    If this is the retort it just weakens the opposing case further again



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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,225 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    What data do you mean ?

    Sweden`s own test results that show herd immunity was a failure, their own FHM Covid deaths data for the period they were chasing it, The Economist report data on the same, the Eurostat monthly excess deaths data for the same period, Tegrell`s own admission that the strategy was immoral, or Sweden`s own Covid inquiry report ?

    They have all been posted here as well as economic reports that show Sweden did not do any better economically than their neighbours, or indeed the rest of Europe afair from their strategy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Running away from the data, how utterly predictable ;)



  • Registered Users Posts: 15,225 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    This pandemic was due to a virus. It wasn`t one of the biblical plague of Egypt that killed just the first born.

    It was more virulent in some areas of "The World" than others. If you have read The Economist report you will see that regionally in Europe alone that was the case going west to east, and as the report points out when it came to excess deaths for 2020 for the Northwestern region of Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark, Sweden was the exception having per capita multiple deaths compared to the others.

    It is not just The Economist report that shows that. So do the reported Covid deaths for each of those countries during that period, the excess deaths for the year, plus the Eurostat monthly excess deaths for the period that shows again multiple deaths in Sweden during the peak periods of the two Covid waves during 2020 when compared to the others in the region.

    That is not a retort, it`s factual data from multiple sources that include all four countries own data and that of Eurostat, the official E.U. statistics agency.



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    This will likely be my last post on this thread, because clearly I am broadcasting to unreachable channels and my time is finite, but valuable.

    The defenders of lockdown consistently miss the point: There is more to life than not dying (news for you, it comes for us all), and most certainly more to life than GDP.

    We can argue about data forever, and yes - the data can be argued for any point of view - as sky news stated - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-news-live-coronavirus-vaccine-pandemic-latest-skynews-12579367?postid=3844326#liveblog-body:

    "Sweden's liberal [as opposed to the illiberal measures in IE] approach to COVID, and its refusal to impose strict lockdowns, appear to have been vindicated by new World Health Organisation figures."

    "Sweden took some flak for its approach but in 2020 and 2021, the country had an average excess death rate of 56 per 100,000 people - compared to 109 in the UK, 111 in Spain, 116 in Germany and 133 in Italy."

    "The country did fare worse than some of its Nordic neighbours where lockdowns were introduced [though they were much shorter/less severe than the lockdowns in IE], however - so, as always, you could use the data to argue any point you like." [though according to the Lancet we see a different picture where Sweden was less bad off. I will not be reposting this as I've done so several times already].

    If any of the resident experts here have a differing view to the quote above - take it up with sky news.

    Voluntary measures, personal responsibility and personal choice was previously the middle ground between liberty and safety. Sweden can hold it's head higher than many other EU nations in that the measures it introduced were not in the same league as the illiberal measures elsewhere (particularly in IE). Yes, you can mention the schools and so forth, and protection of the vulnerable (a mistake most nations also made) but the bottom line is that Sweden didn't treat it's population like children, no I would go further - like collective drones of national policy - to the extent that other nations did, and has a lower death rate than many European nations. I, and I hope for your sake that you concur, do not believe that I was put on this earth to simply serve whichever country I happen to reside in.

    I do recognise that we are now in an era, in certain nations, where those things are not valued as much as in previous generations (much the pity) and citizens demanded coercive measures to be applied to their fellow citizens during covid, which, whilst I agree was serious, I'd question if it was serious enough for two years of lost living for many people (though, I despairingly concede that some [nobody that I know] people seemed to enjoy being told what to do, where to go etc under lockdown), and for some - the final years of their living (and I am not referring to covid deaths, by the way). As an older person, who knows many older (vulnerable) people - I'd have preferred to live with freedom united with risk as opposed to restrictions with safety. I'd (and they) prefer to spend my last days with people of my choosing, in areas of my choosing - not the states, and not other citizens' choosing. If someone else wanted safety, they could have shielded themselves voluntarily. What actually happened was that the choice was eliminated (I said this before). Who should decide that? Government officials, or the individual? To me, the answer is abundantly obvious - the individual. This is the big difference between lockdown defenders and lockdown sceptics/liberty defenders. In my mind, it is folly to attempt to control the behaviour of others to high degrees for long periods of time, two years is not trivial.

    As I said before, let's see how the next crises pan out, but my feeling is that once that threshold has been crossed (i.e. the scale of coercion, which was unknown in living memory, perhaps in the history of many EU nations) - it's very tempting for government's to resort to such levels of coercion to assist with other crises.

    Attack this post all you like :), I wanted to voice a different point of view. I have done so, and may or may not engage further (my choice).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,934 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    I would note that constitutions and human rights acts all have reference to restrictions on rights being applicable for public health reasons, which a pandemic falls into. This is universal almost like those who wrote the acts realised that more than voluntary measures would be needed.



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