Football ranking table

Updated football ranking table below, Armagh were by far the biggest winners of the weekend, with a bonus-point win over a Tyrone team that drop to their lowest level since February 2015

You are correct that Cavan would not gain so much if they do beat Sligo, but if they have a big win over Westmeath in the final, and Westmeath had increased their worth by getting a big win over Offaly, then it's likely that Cavan could overtake Tyrone.

Would Cavan be a better team than Tyrone? Would you fancy Cavan to take Tyrone, based on Tyrone's lacklustre performances this year?

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's Round 2 qualifier games:

• The draw in the league versus Clare was the only occasion in the previous 10 games where Roscommon under performed. This is the teams second-only ever meeting in the championship
• Kildare have been trying their best imitation of Jekyll and Hyde this season, and while Mayo have also had some bumps along the way, they do seem more consistent
• Limerick were hugely disappointing against Kerry (or was that hugely naive?); they could really put it up to a Cork side that don't seem to handle pressure particularly well. Still, Cork have won 16 of their previous 17 championship meetings
• Armagh will surely be leaning on their Ulster loss to Donegal to spur them into action this weekend; apart from that game, their performances in 2022 appear relatively healthy. Donegal do seem to mix the good with the bad, but have not lost to Armagh in their previous 9 league and championship encounters. A tight one is in store

tl;dr

• Roscommon by 4.2
• Mayo by 3.4
• Cork by 5.6
• Donegal by 0.6

Tailteann cup seim-finals time!

• There is a minor rating difference between Offaly and Westmeath which is the first clue that this will be a close one. What is also interesting is that Offaly have over-performed in their previous 2 games by approx. 5 points whereas Westmeath have underperformed by approx. 3 points.
• With their last championship meeting being in 1928, there is not much history between Cavan and Sligo. Sligo haven't beaten Cavan in the league since 2004 and it is unlikely that they will make the championship record 2-0 against the Breffni here

tl;dr

• Westmeath by 0.7
• Cavan by 8.6

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's All-Ireland quarter-finals:

• Dublin's SFC form looks nothing like their NFL form - they have won each of their 3 Leinster games by 10 points more than expected. Cork, on the other hand, seem to be operating perfectly at their level. Which is highly unlikely to be anywhere near good enough.
• Derry and Clare meet for the first time ever in the SFC, and both come into the game with good form. The opposition that Derry have taken down in the last 2 months is quite impressive, while Clare's opponents have not been of the same quality. Clare are dogged though, and unlikely to make life easy for a Derry side that have their sights set higher
• IT's 5 years since Mayo beat Kerry in the championship, and 3 years since they beat them in the league. This year's league final was surely an eye-opener for Mayo, but will they have enough to put up a 70 minute challenge?
• Almost no difference in rating points between Armagh and Galway in what promises to be a very entertaining game of open football. Armagh's record against Galway in the SFC is not good (3 games, 3 losses), and both seem to be coming into the game on similar trajectories of form, i.e. mostly middling to good

tl;dr

• Dublin by 7
• Derry by 7.5
• Kerry by 3.1
• Galway by 0.2
• 
  

Apologies for the delay, the last week disappeared somewhere..........

Updated ranking table below after last weekend's 4 quarter-finals:

• Kerry took a skelp of rating points off of Mayo, and firmly cement their place at the top of the table
• The Galway-Armagh classic was treated as a draw game, which means that Armagh retain a lead over Galway in the rankings
• No rating points were exchanged in the Derry-Clare or Dublin-Cork games

Prediction model output attached for this weekend's Tailteann Cup final and Sam Maguire Cup semi-finals:

• The semi-finals of the Tailteann Cup resulted in contrasting fortunes for Westmeath and Cavan compared to their 2 earlier games - Cavan under-performed against Sligo (while over-performing against Fermanagh and Down), whereas Westmeath over-performed against Offaly (and under-performed against Carlow and Laois). There has only been one prior championship meeting (a 2014 qualifier resulting in a narrow Cavan win), and Westmeath have only won 2 of their 14 previous encounters
• Notably, the 2022 league loss to Galway is the only visible blot on Derry's copybook over the last 20 games. There have been 3 previous SFC meetings between the sides, and it stands at 3-0 to Galway (identical to Galway's record against Armagh, before the quarter-final!). However, given the favourable rating points difference, the model is going for Derry (in normal time 😉)
• Almost 9 rating points separating Dublin from Kerry, Dublin have done a real Jekyll and Hyde between their league and championship performances; Kerry were perhaps not well tested in the Munster SFC but perfectly controlled the game against what was possibly a limited Mayo side. This will be their 27th SFC meeting (it's hard to imagine 2 teams from different provinces having met as many times) and Dublin have generally held the upper hand over their previous 20 championship and league appearances. Which Dublin will show up? And how will Kerry react to a serious challenge?

tl;dr

• Cavan by 3.1
• Derry by 1.5
• Kerry by 2.6

Prediction model output for the All-Ireland final attached:

• While Galway's form (score minus predicted result) has been good (vs Mayo, Leitrim and Derry) or ok (vs Roscommon and Armagh) during this year's SFC, they were coming from a lower base, having started the championship at 93.6 rating points
• This is in contrast to Kerry, who started the SFC numero uno (on 107.1 rating points), and have, despite being far ahead of the field, exceeded expectations against Cork, Limerick and Mayo. The result against Dublin was a little underwhelming, but they may feel that they did enough to get the job done
• Apart from the mauling they received in the first round of last year's league (did Tyrone not also receive a mauling in Kerry last year? #omens), recent games between the 2 are generally low scoring affairs
• The prediction model's primary variable is the rating point difference between the teams - Galway held leads of 6 points or more against Mayo, Roscommon and Armagh with approx 10 minutes to go, but let these leads slip. In the end, they only got a bonus win (for winning by 5 points or more) against Derry. "If" they had managed to hold their leads, they would have more rating points today, and the prediction model might be pointing a different way. However, they did lose these leads, and that has to be a cause of concern to the Galway camp

The prediction model is going for a Kerry win by 3.8 points.

According to the ranking table, who were the biggest winners and losers from 2022?

Biggest winners:

• An All-Ireland semi-final appearance, champions of Ulster and narrowly missing out on promotion from Division 2 made this an excellent year for Derry, with 10 ranking places and almost 16 rating points gained. All the more remarkable as Derry were 3rd in the biggest winner's list in 2021!
• 11.8 rating points gained in 2022 for the All-Ireland champions after a clean sweep of league and championship, Kerry hold top spot going into 2023
• With an jump of 7 places in the rankings and a gain of 11.3 rating points, 2022 was the year when Kieran McKeevers persistence finally paid off with sensational knock-out wins for Armagh over Tyrone and Donegal
• Honorable mentions to Galway and Sligo (both increased their worth by 9.7 rating points) and Louth (an increase of 8.2 rating points)

Biggest losers:

• Not many would have predicted that the 2021 All-Ireland champions would be top of the biggest loser's list in 2022, but how the mighty have fallen. A total of 20 rating points and 9 ranking places given up mean that Tyrone have plenty of ammunition to do better in 2023, if that so pleases them
• Two years in a row that these two teams find themselves in the biggest loser category (the only positive is that it is virtually impossible to be here for 3 years in a row!) - Tipperary dropped 11.3 rating points and 8 ranking places while Laois dropped 10.7 rating points and 9 ranking places in 2022. And this despite Tipperary getting promotion from Division 4 (where Laois will replace them!)
• Honorable mentions to Longford (-10.1 rating points), Dublin (-8.5, 2nd year in a row for honorable loser mention), and Mayo and Down (both -8.0 rating points)