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Sinn Fein and how do they form a government dilemma

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13567…208

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    #62
    mattser
    Registered Users Posts: 2,235 ✭✭✭mattser


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172828#Comment_119172828

    That's the merger I'm looking forward to most. Popcorn will sell out in days.



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    #63
    iColdFusion
    Registered Users Posts: 995 ✭✭✭iColdFusion


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119172828#Comment_119172828

    SF are pretty toxic to any coalition partner in the republic but if by some miracle they are able to form a government with them in power in NI it would go a long way to legitimising them for a coalition down south with FF considering the potential for a united Ireland.



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    #64
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I think if FF join them in coalition it'll be the end of FF as a major party and will mark the decline of them until they end up like Labour.

    That's not to say it won't happen though, politicians are nothing if not shortsighted



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    #65
    landofthetree
    Registered Users Posts: 2,345 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    With inflation likely to hit 15%, a possible trade war between the UK/EU and a housing crisis that won't be solved before the next election its quite possible that SF could hit 70 seats.



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    #66
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170154#Comment_119170154


    SF absolutely could not have "easily gotten to 60 seats" in the last election. They left some on the table for sure, and had double the quota in 3 constituencies, but you are suggesting they could have "easily" gotten more than 50% more seats which is outrageously far fetched. Unfortunately from a political intrigue point of view we did not really get to see how popular they were transfer wise but they would have had to be extraordinarily popular on transfers (not historically a strength) to get over about 50 seats on 25% of the vote.



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    #67
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119173148#Comment_119173148

    Would still need FF.

    If SF get that many seats it'll be because they've wiped out the rest of the left. The only way SF are getting into government without FF propping them up is if SF somehow manage to win an outright majority, and the chances of that are very slim indeed.



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    #68
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175172#Comment_119175172

    They won't literally 'wipe out the rest of the left' though. Good chance SF will be somewhere round 72-73 seats and the remaining left parties/inds will be able to get them over the 80 seat line.



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    #69
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119169765#Comment_119169765

    The present government is an utter farce,stumbling from crisis to crisis,and utterly failing to perform to anything approaching functional


    I prefer to see a government fall,than ever put people of the country through an amateur hour mess,that we have now again.....a government of left,would pass a budget imo,may take longer to iron out,but will pass.....what we have now,is an utter mess and carryon of its participants,wouldnt be tolerated in any workplace anywhere



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    #70
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119170674#Comment_119170674

    Afaik 6 of the green TDs are in on something like 75% transfers off sf


    They ran a massive infographic ads on instagram to transfer left before last election....the notion they will eat the left vote,deosnt stand up when polling figures examined....the sf rise since 2011,has matched the decline of ff and fg (hence the ultra dogamtic attempts of fg to put people off em,they are bleeding their progressive vote dry)



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    #71
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175201#Comment_119175201

    Such a government would never last. Nothing would get done. If they even passed budget it would be amazing.

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175206#Comment_119175206

    If you think the current government is non-functional then a grand coalition of the left is going to many, many times worse.



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    #72
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175241#Comment_119175241

    Why would it not last,other than oft-repeated dogma,ive never seen any reason to say they wouldnt put together a programme for government,and put each party leader in back me/sack me situation?



    Il take my chances on any other government than present,they carryon like noone in any normal job would be allowed to....when the mikey healy-rae speaks more commonsense than several government ministers,things are utterly dire,


    pick half a dozen middle-managers out of any factory in town,and they would make a better fist of it,than present shower,sure if it dont work out,we can always vote sf/left out and go all indos only into the future



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    #73
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119153185#Comment_119153185

    It's hard to gauge on the Greens as it is very much their time. They could hold what they have or add more if enough transfers go their way. It's not the carbon tax raising that is the issue it's explaining where it will go. We are at best half-persuaded about the tax and its merits. I don't think SF have that government idea worked out very well , apart from that they will be the majority party and that they need votes of some people in the centre. The trouble there is that they want to tax some of this group even more to pay for the ever-expanding promises. Added to that is the risk of losing voters to other more extreme left parties.

    The biggest challenge is that unless they break 80 seats, impossible IMO, there are at least 4 permutations that will keep them out. Both FG & FF will do deals more readily and the current incumbents or any number of confidence and supply deals, never mind the myriad of minority government options forces them into attempting to unite the left. That looks like an ugly and short-lived event.



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    #74
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175275#Comment_119175275

    Think about it for a second. On the one hand, you say the current government is non functional and doesn't get anything done. And that is with only 3 parties involved.

    You believe that a grand coalition, involving more parties, more competing priorities, independent TDs and protest parties is going to somehow be more functional and deliver more? Delusional.

    The reason government's get things done is through party discipline and the whip system. In these grand coalitions this does not exist. SF would be relying on politicians who can barely agree what day of the week it is to back them in votes.

    The idea things couldn't possibly be any worse is way wide of the mark.

    As for the whole we can all vote independent in future, this is what you should absolutely do if you want to make things even worse. All these parish pump independents are a huge part of the problem with national politics here.



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    #75
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175418#Comment_119175418

    Ah yes,.more personal biased dogma,with little in way of actual examples


    Could say a protest party (silly degoratory term btw),be gauranteed to supply votes,once demand met?....germany has elected a left government,portugal has 3 times in a row,this notion sky will fall in,and nothing get done ...if we vote left is out silly,shinners are merly a bog standred european left party......


    would we end up with a joke situation like the turf cutting ban,where government parties were openly undermining one and other....to extent an 8km pipe to dump waste from a meat factory into a river was buried in the controversy.....would a government of the left end up with farcial situation that bord planalta has decended into??


    You have every right to believe a left government would be a diaster/jokeshop,with zero evidence for/againest,its merly personal bias,but the right here are a farce at the min,and deserve being fcuked out for incompetence



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    #76
    awec
    Administrators Posts: 53,829 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭awec


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175447#Comment_119175447

    It's absolutely nothing to do with a left government. This is not a policy question, it's a question of political function.

    A grand coalition of the right would be the exact same. Completely dysfunctional.

    As to your question, could a party be guaranteed to supply votes. The answer is no and this is the problem. The only way to get votes from coalition partners is to give them something in return. When you have only 1 or 2 partners this is easier to accomplish. When you have to negotiate with numerous small parties and independents to even produce a bill this is when things fall apart very fast. What do you do when 2 of your partners have conflicting demands on a bill (not unlikely)?

    What would SFs housing bill look like after they've appeased the demands of the other parties and all the independents? It would likely look nothing like SF's actual housing policy.

    Ireland's current parties are centrist by the way. It would be hard to call them right wing by any definition. There are no serious right wing parties in Ireland, any that exist get little votes.

    I'll repeat myself, the only way it works for SF is if they get FF on board. It's literally the only show in town, outside of some miraculous overall majority.



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    #77
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175480#Comment_119175480

    Mate we have at mjn,is in effect a coalition of the right at the min,id be suprised if there wasnt a few indos attached by end of next 2 years


    Why would they not be gauranteed to supply votes once their demands are met,deosnt seem logical to say otherwise


    Except yous negociate with the leaders and send them to sell it to their parties,in back/sack situation,taking no more than 1 week,with a secondary negociation to iron out flaws found....your dealing with a party which inside a generation went from fighting a war to now likely holding balance of power after next election,negociations and endless meetings is 2nd nature to em,



    I think we will soon find out,they all broadly want same thing,to help people,there is no reason it not be feasible imo....sure if it goes to sh1te we can vote for someone else,but we certainly shouldnt vote to reward failure



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    #78
    Good loser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,198 ✭✭✭Good loser


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175275#Comment_119175275

    M Healy Rea talks a lot (all the time?) about common sense but doesn't talk much common sense.



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    #79
    twin_beacon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,250 ✭✭✭twin_beacon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175501#Comment_119175501

    FF, FG and Greens are not right wing. The Irish Freedom Party, and the National Party are right wing parties. The current government welcomed refugees from the war, where as the Freedom Party and the National Party want to send them back.

    Nothing is a guarantee in politics, especially a supply of votes when Independents are involved, as they don't have a whip to keep them all aligned. An Independent has no loyalty to any party, their loyalty is to the parish pump. As said by Blaaz_, its very hard to please everyone, and if you do, bills get watered down to the point they look very different than they did on day 1. Also, and Independent will have no problem leaving government to join the opposition if it means saving their skin in a future election.

    FF hold the key in the next election. If they go into power with SF, there will be some bit of stability in the government. If they don't, it will probably be a minority government.



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    #80
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,192 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119178326#Comment_119178326

    As there is neither irish freedom party nor national party,ff and fg would be the furthest right of parties elected,and be closest to them imo,hence the term



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    #81
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I think the greens could be ok to hold what they have. They may lose one or 2 but Ryan could possibly bring in a running mate.

    I feel the greens issue is that they wouldn’t be able to go into coalition as they wouldn’t agree. I don’t think the likes of Hourigan/Costello are on the same page as Ryan & Smith and there might be a split as such there.

    Down the line, Labour, SocDems and the Greens should really be looking at a candidate or vote sharing strategy, especially with SF potentially eating up the soft left vote.



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    #82
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119180454#Comment_119180454

    Don't the GP have a vote as a party on whether to go into govt or not? As in either the majority support going into govt or they don't go into govt or something like that. Am I misremembering?



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    #83
    RoTelly
    Registered Users Posts: 3,008 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    I was listening to BOC on Radio 1, there was one contributor almost salivating at the idea of mixed coalitions for some time to come. And that there would not be a "major" political government or opposition party. He really wanted to sound wise. But the polls don't really show this happening, if anything the polls are going to potentially revert to the 2 big ones, weather its SF and a merge of FG/FF.

    The only small party that seems to have any reasonable core vote is The Green Party, though I wonder if it will be transfer friendly.

    The Labour Party really needs start working to regain the ground they've lost, while I see Soc Dems slowly ending up on the periphery of politics much like the PBP/RISE etc, while I see those parties edged out of the Dail.


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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    #84
    iColdFusion
    Registered Users Posts: 995 ✭✭✭iColdFusion


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119206546#Comment_119206546

    Don't see the Greens getting a good vote if there's an election soon enough, would be turkeys voting for xmas for most people with the cost of living so high at the moment and Ryan in government isn't exactly winning over new voters, support for the Green agenda is very much tied to good economic times IMHO.



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    #85
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 26,886 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    FF and FG are not merging. More likely that FF would go into power with SF.



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    #86
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Won't make a jot of difference to the GP whether they get 2 or 22 TD's, the party will carry on regardless. The GP is very different to all other parties in this regard. It could go 20 years within a TD and it would still carry on where most would shut up shop



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    #87
    RoTelly
    Registered Users Posts: 3,008 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119207440#Comment_119207440

    Unless someone adopts their name, IMO Socs Dems need to become SDGP (Social Democratic and Green Party). You know the Watermelons rather than just the normal melons we vote for!


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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    #88
    starkid
    Registered Users Posts: 762 ✭✭✭starkid


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119175447#Comment_119175447

    there is plenty of evidence of it in other countries. Christ learn to lose the argument with dignity



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    #89
    shoegirl
    Registered Users Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭shoegirl


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119151063#Comment_119151063

    Those hard left reps are likely to lose their seats in the event of an SF surge, so at best they will be media commentary, they won't be in the Dail.

    I think either of 5 scenarios:

    • SF get 70+ reps and try to go it as a minority government
    • SF find support from the remnants of other left parties (of which there won't be much) and independents to put together a govt
    • SF try to gain support from FF but FF splits. A rebel group forms a new party and goes into coalition with SF and rump FF gget supporto into opposition
    • SF get support from FF and form a coalition
    • SF gain seats but not enough to form a coalition, at expense of other left wing parties, and FF and FG with remaining independents form a govt

    Jason O Mahony thinks SF and FG could be forced into a coalition and thats also technically plausible but unlikely.



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    #90
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,473 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119412344#Comment_119412344

    FF aren't going to split; there is little outright opposition to a deal with SF within the party

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/ff-tds-would-not-exclude-sinn-fein-coalition-after-next-election-1.4478483

    almost every Fianna Fáil TD who responded to queries from The Irish Times expressed a willingness to sit down with Sinn Féin after the next election.

    I actually think a deal between SF and FF is more likely to be some form of confidence and supply as FF know hooking up with SF is not a vote winner and would wish to keep the arrangement as arms' length as possible...



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    #91
    RoTelly
    Registered Users Posts: 3,008 ✭✭✭RoTelly


    I actually think a deal between SF and FF is more likely to be some form of confidence and supply as FF know hooking up with SF is not a vote winner and would wish to keep the arrangement as arms' length as possible...

    @Loafing Oaf I think it depends on where FF are after the election...

    1. If they are the second most popular party they fight for C&S, making them leaders of the opposition again.
    2. If they are 3rd they may consider it best to take a place at the cabinet table
    3. or They may try to push FG into a coalition so as to be come leaders of the opposition again, FG will say for the good of the country much like LP did in 2011. I mean FG couldn't possibly refuse to go into coalition with any party if such a move wasn't for the good of the country .... right?


    ______

    Just one more thing .... when did they return that car

    Yesterday



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