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Ukraine (Mod Note & Threadbanned Users in OP)

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  • Registered Users Posts: 767 ✭✭✭Detritus70


    And he talks about how it was not right how Iraq got invaded and how much empathy he has. Disingenuous post.

    "I'm not a Trump supporter, but..." is the new "I'm not a racist, but...".



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    You alluded to it when you mentioned how negotiations failed with Mladic et al and they were only stopped when they were brought to heel by bombings of Belgrade. That they were murderers and negotiations with murderers dont work etc.

    The difference is, Serbs in Yugoslavia had a goal first and foremost of ethnic cleansing. The Russians in Ukraine have strategic goals, as eastern Ukraine has much strategic and material (resources) value.

    If you say I misrepresent what you wrote, then please explain what you do mean. So far all your posts have mentioned how we cannot negotiate with murderers etc. What have I got wrong?



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    At least that's a step. Every administration can be criticised, there's a spectrum, and if we look Putin's administration and their actions, it's as bad as it gets. However there are individuals who believe those that oppose it are worse. That's when reason has left the situation.

    As I've said before, Putin could shoot a kid dead in Red Square in cold blood, and we all know individuals would come out of the woodwork to defend it or play the contrarian, why? "The other side is worse".



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    In fairness, the few individuals claiming that nothing has been done wrong, the other side are worse are in the absolute minority and are basically dismissed outright.

    The problem in the discussion is when certain facts come up that either portray Ukraine in a bad light, or show that the military situation is not looking good, there are people with a tendency to cry bot. Not aimed at you, however there are people in general who as you said see it as my side v your side, almost like sports teams. 'Any negative news about my team means that you support the other' - which is wrong and it ruins all discussion.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    So do you believe that Russia's reason for invading Ukraine was for a campaign of ethnic cleansing? Nothing to do with control of black sea ports, or oil & gas fields, or rare earths, or grain - simply because they wanted to kill lots of Ukrainians?

    Your first article there from Haaretz makes no mention of ethnic cleansing, its a glorified opinion piece using an RIA Novosti opinion piece as its basis and extracting some quotes about denazification and equating that to genocide. Not exactly a smoking gun showing the Russians had a manifesto for ethnic cleansing.

    2nd link is behind a paywall so I cant comment

    it is fascinating seeing attempts at trying to defend the indefensible evil that is the Putin regime, it gives an insight into why some so casually committed crimes in twentieth century, there seems to be a section of deplorables alive and well in this century too

    None so deplorable as those who would cheer people on to their deaths rather than wish for peace. But we have to keep sending Ukrainian men to die to give the Russians a bloody nose eh?

    The first step to peace is in acknowledging that your enemy has some grievances, (legitimate or not) and then looking to address that. You still believe that Russia is nothing more than a cartoon villain with a motivation of "the villain is bad simply because hes the villain", rather than having their own strategic goals and interests as motivation.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    My point concerns those individuals who find ways to systematically find fault with Ukraine, and those that support it. People are being blown to bits, but what really "irks" these individuals are the levels of support those people are receiving. From the "other side". A side they think is worse, but can't express it directly given the circumstances.

    So they manifest it with contrarianism and pedantry and opening new troll accounts and so on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Money, power, security - you would be hard pressed to find any state in the world that wouldnt desire a bit more land and resources, the difference is most would see the consequences of any military action as not worth the land and resources you get in return. The Russians obviously saw the trade off as working out more in favour of military action for whatever reason.

    why can’t Russians turn around and go back the mud pile they claimed out of

    Genuinely - why would they? What possible reason would they have to leave all the territory they've taken thus far and retreat entirely? Either they get pushed back out of the country (unlikely), their economy collapses (slightly more likely) or they agree to retreat in exchange for some negotiated settlement (most likely).

    There is no plausible scenario in which they simply up and turn round and march out of Ukraine just like that - it makes no sense and is not even worth discussing.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Can you answer my question without accusing me of being shaped by Russian propaganda?

    Why would Russia ever just up sticks and leave without some kind of peace deal in place? If as you say sanctions are rarely reversed then that is even more reason for them to not only stay, but continue to push on. The damage is done and if sanctions wont be lifted then there is no real point in voluntarily leaving.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,901 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Exactly timmy. The only way Russia will stop what they're doing is as you say if they're militarily defeated and kicked out of Ukraine. And in order for that to happen Russian soldiers must die. And the more of them that die and the faster the die, the sooner this will all end and the peace you so claim to want will finally arrive.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    How long until this collapse? Wasn't their economy due to collapse in March? And April? And May? It seems like the prediction just keeps getting pushed out further and further.

    As for deindustrialising back to 1800s, lol. You are very naive if you think that will happen. Russia still has access to Chinese markets incl Chinese semiconductors - while supply chains will need drastically overhauled for parts sourced from Europe and US, there are alternatives for most things. They will not be without cars or tractors or trains or planes in the long run. Not western quality stuff, but a far far cry from the 19th century.

    How many more weapons need sent to Ukrainians before they begin to retake ground and push the Russians back? Russians are still very slowly taking Severodonetsk



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Well of course Taiwan aren't supplying them - they rely on US protection to stop China from invading!

    While Chinese SMIC wont want to be completely disconnected from global supply of lithography and other machines, they are already the subject of export restrictions in the US designed to stop Chinese from developing semiconductor facilities on par with TSMCs latest and greatest. That said it would not be a shock to see them agree to supply Russians in future as SMICs suppliers in China become more robust. And its not like the Chinese ever cared about IP or patents unlike Russia strangely enough, so revoked licenses wont be an issue for them.

    Yes I'm sure Russia will collapse in '2 more weeks', in the meantime more Ukrainians will die and little territory will be reclaimed from the Russians. If the Ukrainians strategy in this war is to keep the Russians busy until their economy collapses, they could lose Donbas and Kherson for good.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Where am I blaming the victims for whats happening?

    Nor do I 'cheer' for Russians, however I recognise that a strategy of sending troops to the meatgrinder with the hope that eventually the Russian economy will collapse and then they all go home is naive at best. You seem to be treating this war like a football match of my team vs your team. There are no teams, its just politics.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia is unwilling to negotiate an end to the war because it still feels strong.

    ...

    Zelenskyy told U.S. corporate leaders Wednesday that for Russia to join in negotiations is simply not possible now because Russia can still feel its power.

    Speaking via a video link through a translator, he added: We need to weaken Russia and the world is supposed to do it.

    Zelenskyy said Ukraine is doing its part on the battlefield and called for even tougher sanctions to weaken Russia economically. He told the business leaders: We need to switch Russia off the global financial system completely.

    Putin is still negotiating with European leaders (and Turkey re: grain blockade), though there doesnt seem to be much reporting anywhere on status of Ukraine-Russia talks or even the prospect of them resuming other than that quote from zelensky.

    In April, the US' stated goal was for Russia to "fail," a National Security Council spokesperson said at the time, and for the Russian military to be significantly "weakened" in the long term, as Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin proclaimed -- comments that reflected optimism that Ukraine might be able to defeat Russia decisively on the battlefield after successfully defending Kyiv.


    But as an effective stalemate has taken hold on the battlefield, with Russia making incremental gains in the east and Ukraine saying it is increasingly outgunned and outmanned, senior Western officials -- including US President Joe Biden -- are emphasizing anew that even with advanced western weaponry, Ukraine's prospects for peace will ultimately rest on diplomacy.

    Again, even the US admit that diplomacy and a negotiated settlement will be the likely end to this war. If even the US are no longer planning to drive the Russians out of Ukraine (through arms supplies), why would you think that will be the case?



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,579 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Yes and like the lies they tell today they said the wall was to keep fascists out but the ‘fascists’ who were killed trying to get through it were there own non fascist citizens.

    Post edited by 20silkcut on


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Ukraine and Russia were/ are probably the 2 most corrupt countries in Europe - except Russia has oil and gas wealth ...

    Of course the Americans were training the Ukrainians for the last 8 years - Russia invaded ( INVADED ) them 8 years ago ,and Ukrainian neutrality didn't help much ...

    I don't think the Ukrainians were really capable of going on the offensive in 2018 or 2021 ... But the Ukrainians were expecting/fearing to be invaded this spring ... So they were building their defensive capabilities... I don't think big bad Russia was ever worried about being attacked ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,460 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Who's going to guarantee any peace ?

    Effectively the Ukrainians want their land back at least to 2021 borders , sea blockade lifted and to be able to secure their borders and rebuild ...

    Russia wants their international standing back -its gone

    Their oil and gas markets back - I can't see Europe flocking back ....

    And a destabilized Ukraine that's does as it's told -

    So all that can be hoped for is a cease fire, while both sides regroup, retrain , rearm ...

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,110 ✭✭✭yagan


    As pointed out before a lot of Russians outside the metro areas are very self sufficient with producing their own food, so sanctions won't be felt there as much as in the cities. Moscow could descend into another bloody revolution and it wouldn't affect most Russians.

    Moscow has been failing to deliver domestically for decades so like Brexiters blamed the EU for the increasing English poverty Russia has blamed outsiders and conspirators.

    Britain and Russia talk in grandiose terms about taking back control as if it's 1900 and the great game is still afoot. In reality Britain's Brexit isolation is making domestic poverty worse and Putin's war is rapidly depleting its soviet era weaponry and generals.



  • Registered Users Posts: 49 SomewhereInTheMiddle



    Because this is not about the people. Big bad guys are dividing the "cash cow". They don't care about the people.

    The same answer as for why the richest and military safest (thanks to geography) country in the world (US) endlessly build up resources, and when it comes to its oil interests, it's ready to kill hundreds of thousands of people with ease on another side of the globe.

    Now Russia and the US are fighting to have the Europe as a gas colony. US is still winning this part, pushing Europe to discard Russian gas, while Russia is gradually obtaining Ukraine as a resource. Europe and the West help Russia to kill people, supplying weapons to Ukraine.

    Why personally Russian soldiers don't want to go home? Because they're contractors - it's their job.

    Why Russians don't stop Putin? They can't.

    Actually there are several millions Ukrainians on Russian territory, right now (2M historical citizens + 1M refugees). And since the Ukrainians have reproached the Russians many times for inaction - they can gather and show the cowardly Russians how to do that (overthrow Putin or what they wanted?).



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Well best of luck to them on ending the war without territorial concessions. Only way that happens is by pushing the Russians out militarily or by getting a total Russian economic collapse. No signs yet of the former, and the latter has been overdue by months now no? Or so the pundits say.



  • Registered Users Posts: 49 SomewhereInTheMiddle


    Exactly. But you should verify this with real people, not only with official western media.

    Otherwise you'll have such nice US troll-faces:

    (The Munk Debate - The Russia Ukraine War, Toronto, 12.05.2022)

    Stephen Walt: In 2021 we kept reiterating that Ukraine was going to join [NATO]. We kept saying that over and over again. So our diplomats are lying?

    Micheal McFall: Yes! That's the real world guys! C'mooon!

    Americans are already so insolent that they are laughing at how gullible we are in what they officially say!




  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    You concede though that such 'territorial concessions' if they were to happen would be taking place with a gun to the head and at the behest of a criminal and fascist regime who was illegally annexing the territory, correct?

    The equivalent would be me entering your house with a shotgun this evening and you 'agreeing' to hand me over your wallet, credit card and car keys in order to get me to leave.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Well yes of course. That's how wars work. It's rarely just and fair, more "to the victor the spoils". Fortunately it doesnt look as though Russia will win, however it doesnt look like they will totally lose either, at least insofar as they wont be driven from the territory theyve occupied so far.

    The equivalent would be when insurance companies settle against a claim rather than fight it in court, even if they think they would win, as the legal costs make it not worth fighting. The status quo in this conflict is hardly sustainable for either side, Russia are hemorrhaging men and armor, Ukraine are bleeding territory.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe



    The two Brits (both serving members of the Ukrainian armed forces) and a Moroccan man captured in Donbas have just been sentenced to death.



  • Registered Users Posts: 18,529 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    The Ukrainians would probably argue though that such concession of territory would be very hard to justify, even to their own people. Also, it would leave them wide open to a future invasion. Putin and the Kremlin press could claim in 2024 or 2025 that Ukraine was carrying out "provocations" against Russian people in Ukraine (their favourite word in the dictionary apparently) and they had no choice but to reinvade.

    In fact, everything about the Ukraine state post-war will be a "provocation" to the Russians, as it will indeed be deeply hostile to the regime, its biggest enemy in Europe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Likely there will be some trade off in negotiations, either a no NATO/neutrality clause (raises security concerns) or Ukraine gets mutual defense clause with NATO/EU/US/UK but Russia keeps territories, or somewhere in between.

    The ideal situation of a Russian withdrawal and full Ukrainian self-determination (Governance, EU, NATO) is not a likely scenario.

    Assuming they are technically mercenaries hence the lack of protections after capture. Are all foreign fighters who joined up with Ukrainians still deemed mercenaries or is there any way they can be considered part of Ukrainian territorial defence?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭Widdensushi


    Presumably to discourage foreign nationals signing up but it will also mean that any unit with a foreign national in it will fight to the end.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Indeed. Also worth noting the Russian military is full of foreign nationals, but somehow I doubt their Donbas proxies will have any issue with that.



  • Registered Users Posts: 17,928 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    Under the Geneva convention it looks like they should be considered members of the armed forces of that country.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,885 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    This Guardian article says 2 of them were in Ukraine's army.

    Aiden Aslin and Shaun Pinner, who were serving in the Ukrainian military, were detained in April while fighting in Mariupol.

    I don't think foreigners in the French Foreign Legion are mercenaries, and I don't think Irish people who join some of the British army regiments are mercenaries, even if they are fighting for in a foreign (to them) army, and being paid a wage.

    I thought "Mercenaries" would either be in some separate or at arms length "group" (like Blackwater in the US or Academi or whatever it is called now and Russia's Wagner company) that has "employees" and the group is being hired to do a job (fight), or perhaps they could be individuals being hired to fight but not actually joining the army itself + all that goes with that. Russia describing foreigners fighting in Ukraine "mercenaries" may not mean they are such. Russia lies and distorts stuff as suits them all the time.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,358 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    They weren't tried in Russia.

    They were tried in the Donetsk People's Republic and Britain won't entertain a prisoner swap because it requires they recognise the DPR. I doubt DPR want to pay the costs of locking up British mercenaries for very long.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    One of the problems of things like the Geneva convention and other wartime "law" is that its only enforced on the losers. Unless you are militarily defeated you can just not let them hold you to account for these things. Realistically what can be done to enforce it? More sanctions?

    I think Russia have announced several times that they will treat all foreign soldiers as mercenaries and will not afford them any protections, likely to discourage foreign soldiers to enlist for Ukraine.



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