Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

So you think we will see hyper inflation?? As I said before your predictions are at the extreme side of the scale. For hyper inflation to occur there needs to be something a major change such as USD no longer being the world currency

also hyper inflation does not go with your prediction of lower house prices…if people believed that hyper inflation was coming then you would borrow money to buy assets because the inflation would eat away the debt.

In the last 2 years we have seen many EU treaties suspended in terms of crisis, inflation rules will likely go the same way.

EU fiscal rules, the bane of most EU governments over the last decade were totally ignored for all of covid, as far as I know they have not yet been reinstated either. I doubt they will be for a long while if ever seeing how things are going. Ironically that unchecked borrowing over covid puts huge long term uncertainty as to how many EU countries will fare in the long term when their debts start to mature, and we likely find ourselves no longer in a record low interest rate environment.

Inflate away the debt will be the next plan to avoid default, "short term pain for long term stability" they'll market it as. Either that or its the end of the Euro

You literally couldn't make it up, over the course of the past hundred years 2.5% would be considered an absolute steal and now we have inflation at a near 40 year high and people can't fathom rates climbing over 2.5%.

The mind boggles

Prices in Dublin 9 already receding. Can't wait to see this thread in a couple of years.

Most will probably be too scared to buy then, trying to time the bottom.

For the last 30 years we have had cheap energy and food. Both of these took very little of people's wages compared to 50 years ago. Now we can no longer access these.

During the last ten years most inflation was caused by government adding cost with in vat or in charges.

Now we have entered a different era. As commodities inflate in price the ability to spend more on lifestyle will start to be limited, the city breaks, the concerts and matches, throw away clothing, fancier and fancier cars, newer electronics, eating out, coffee etc. People will have to choose on what to spend there money.

The biggest change that people will find is that we cannot give wage rise to compensate for the extra costs. We will have to reduce our standard of living and our lifestyles.

It's peculiar in that it will help to reduce the impact of climate change. People are starting to think before they sit into a car, do I need to make this journey, can I carry out another task which will save a future journey.

There is no conspiracy, no great plan by some sinister force it plain and straight economics. All over the world populations are increasing, this increases demand. Changes me er come slowly, something causes a problem( war in Ukraine) which accelerates and brings to the fore what was going to happen anyway.

One thing for sure inflation will not make property cheaper

Prices are not a function of supply only. When affordability gets hit hard your flow of buyers dry up. Inventory argument is then pointless. Everything is moving very quickly now. Imo Prices will start falling soon.

Transactions and mortgage drawdowns will be down first and you will see eit blamed on a lack of supply which, although arguable, is not correct. It is a sign of the shifting sands and the price corrections will follow. So look out for lower transactions and mortgage drawdowns to know change is afoot.

All tech stocks have been falling massively lately due to the covid money printing ending and the prospect of rate rises, so any short of a big tech stock would have had similar result. However it depends when he placed his position also, we are now only back to pre-covid positions.

There will be a split no matter what - or at least very strong diverging opinions. The eurozone economies are so different that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, raising rates could tackle inflation but cripple indebted nations, not raising rates will see inflation unchecked which will cripple everyone.

The ECB will not raise rates enough that we see double digit mortgage rates. It would destroy weaker more indebted members of the union and wouldnt be considered.

Shorting Tesla is incredibly risky as it has that mania following, it's also a large holding in most pensions and the last leg on the arc Innovation fund stool preventing it from complete collapse for now.

Investing/shorting Tesla is russian roulette. Most logical thinking people know it's still overvalued but there is still too much silly money out there to be lost before it's found out

Yeah that cohort would be made up of mainly anyone who owns a house and/or who is working. So anyone not in either of these situations would be considered the less well off and any gov party cutting the supports like HAP to these groups would get a serious slapping from our left leaning media. I would be all on for removing it and having more money in my own pocket.

Correct being data dependant this is the first place to look for future price predictions.

Although anecdotal, personally speaking, i know prospective buyers who are in two camps, buy now before rates go up or hold off. It's leaning towards the latter for the majority.

This time next year the market will be unrecognizable.

Why CBDC? what does that achieve/ameliorate about a crisis brought about by rising rates/double digit mortgage rates?

Easier to track who has what, where its coming from and who is spending...eliminate black economy, get more tax revenue in and save on costs associated with physical money......................or no direct help but just a handy cover to push the introduction of one.