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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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    #482
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Believe me or not folks but there is plenty hard working people which has 150-180K saved in cash which they saved per last 8-10 years.

    I am not talking about Dublin but they will afford buy 2-3 beds houses in good nic in towns with 50-70K population for cash very easy.

    They worked hard they never bought sandwiches and coffee on petrol station they was traveling on bicycle or walk to work and all them food was from Aldi.They forgot how food looks on restaurant table.

    They didn't hurry they didn't listened bs from "property analysts" they simply was putting penny to penny and they will be awarded Mortgage Free Life soon.

    But those who had life at full were changed them cars every year or second who was hurry to spend wages to loans and mortgage those people will have Extremely Hard Financial Hangover.



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    #483
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119180785#Comment_119180785

    I'd wait for this year to play out. We're looking at all major economies simultaniously heading into recession towards the back end of the year / early next year. During the GFC, there were still engines of global growth (mostly China and a couple of other emerging economies). We don't have that in this scenario, and we're actually looking at extremely serious scenarios for developing economies.

    I don't know how you can put a sunny side up interpretation on things they way these shocks are compounding and when the World Bank, former Governers of the Bank of England etc sounding the alarm that a global recession won't be easily avoided.

    At the risk of being branded a doom gloomer (heavans above!), I'd argue there's some serious head-in-sand sentiment in your post.



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    #484
    BattleCorp
    Registered Users Posts: 11,774 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181058#Comment_119181058

    A pension fund is a long-term investment. If they could keep their house and ride out the recession, prices would eventually go back up.



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    #485
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181117#Comment_119181117

    Who saved 150-180k in cash and simultaniously subjected themselves to the rental market over the last few years when they could have had mortgages years back?

    You're talking tosh there.



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    #486
    Relax brah
    Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181147#Comment_119181147

    Plenty have. Myself being one of them, I have saved 150k over the last 4 years whilst renting the last 6 years. I was on the market for property the last two years and decided to take a step back in the last 12 months (I’m glad I did.)

    I don’t agree with 90% of revolution says but I have to agree with him and challenge your point here.



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    #487
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181179#Comment_119181179

    Well you were shooting yourself in the d*ck renting when you likely had the makings of a mortgage 4 years ago.

    Each to their own and all the best, but you'd be a very unusual case having 150k sitting in an account and still in a rental.



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    #488
    Relax brah
    Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181195#Comment_119181195

    Everyone’s situation is different.

    I opted not to buy as I’m single so I wouldn’t be so quick generalise. Equally, I wouldn’t so quick to generalise someone’s ability to generate income, rent and save. It’s absolutely possible and for additional context, I’m renting in south inner city dublin (it’s not cheap.)

    Not trying to brag or be condescending but Dublin in particular has been an incredible booming city for professional for years now with plenty of opportunity. A lot of people are sitting on cash right now.



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    #489
    enricoh
    Registered Users Posts: 4,890 ✭✭✭enricoh


    I have a small business totally dependent on small discretionary spending and I can see things tightening already. I think petrol at 2.30+ is hammering the public.

    Know a few lads in demolition, concrete supplier n paving shop n each of them are quiet now. This time last year all were bananas busy n crying out for staff.

    Prices are just too high for ordinary Joe soaps, the government couldn't care less what the prices are n are the only thing keeping construction going at the minute imo.

    I reckon the public is already in recession mode no Matter what the GDP stats says



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    #490
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181195#Comment_119181195

    You see even having enough money to get mortgage you will not get it.

    Try get mortgage when you are sell employed have a job trough the agency or with only one year contract which can be canceled on end or extended from zero again.

    Try get mortgage when your income will be 40K per year when your spouse will be only 20K.Bank doesn't care that you have another 20 K from additional "after work incomes"

    There is 1000s situations when people can pay mortgage but have choose savings way.

    Some can't get it some share house with friends or parents or some live in log cabin on end of back yard.I was one day on one farmer yard were I found 2 small cabins built were farmers sons was living with them girlfriends saving money for proper houses.



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    #491
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181287#Comment_119181287

    Yeah yeah. I spotted a barrister couple living in a converted Antonov transport plane off the long mile road the other day.

    Honest guv.



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    #492
    amacca
    Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181243#Comment_119181243

    If they are not on high end 150k + then it would have to be something like that .....if they were on 150k+ why didn't they buy...unless they pissed all away on coke, gambling, hookers etc



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    #493
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181254#Comment_119181254

    Good on you. But with respect, someone electing to rent in South Dublin and sitting on 150k crash is an extremely small segment of the population.

    You and the Russian lad on the thread say 'plenty', the reality is it's fanny all of the population.



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    #494
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181195#Comment_119181195

    Property isn't the only thing to spend cash on.

    Sure it may not have earned much in the bank the last few years and maybe lost its value due to cost of living increases but with equities possibly going to make no gains in the next decade and property at the end of a frenzy, that poster is poised for comfort during the economic slump happening whereas for example those that took out only 3 or 5 year fixed mortgages in theast few years, maxing out their borrowing ability, will be due to pay hundreds of extra euro per month in the next few months and for the foreseeable future.



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    #495
    Cluedo Monopoly
    Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181131#Comment_119181131

    They sold in a panic.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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    #496
    ericfartman
    Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭ericfartman


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181179#Comment_119181179

    So you saved 3125 euro a month over the last four years to have 150K in the bank. I call bull ****.



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    #497
    Danno
    Registered Users Posts: 8,913 ✭✭✭Danno


    The recession is already under way - once the kiddies go back to school in September it's doors closed and curtains pulled for many folks as they stop all discretionary spending to ride out the higher energy bills that winter will bring.

    Very few are building house extensions, very few new starts on full builds too. Few folks locally have decided against starting to build on the sites they have with FPP. Incidentally two of them are next door neighbours where they are currently living.

    One person decided to start their build and rang a reputable local company to see if they could do the job - they offered to start it on Monday morning - and did.

    There's some hints of recession underway.



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    #498
    BattleCorp
    Registered Users Posts: 11,774 ✭✭✭✭BattleCorp


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181355#Comment_119181355

    I don't know their personal situation so maybe it was the best move at the time, and maybe it wasn't.



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    #499
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181367#Comment_119181367

    Count how many cement trucks or sand tippers you will see on the roads tomorrow

    all parked up



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    #500
    dockysher
    Registered Users Posts: 372 ✭✭dockysher


    I don't see any lack of money or people struggling for money. I travel work 5 days a week on motorway and it's nearly all brand new or nearly new cars. I usually go out twice a week, pub, restaurant and that. All packed with people ever weekend. And I'm in small countryside towns now. As you see with Dublin airport, it's packed with people going on holidays. I'm only on average income myself. But I struggle to see all this recession talk and people struggling to pay for things?



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    #501
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119180717#Comment_119180717

    The Chinese economy is on life support and I would not be surprised at all if COVID lockdowns are a cover for the fan as the **** is flying towards it. The fallout there could be absolutely catastrophic and ultimately lead to widespread social unrest that could topple the CCP. COVID lockdowns give the regime a chance to bide their time and cover up the impending economic crash. But make no mistake, China is utterly destroyed and we will see this olayout in the coming years.



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    #502
    FintanMcluskey
    Registered Users Posts: 8,372 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Ireland is in a incredibly unique position due to its leprechaun economy.

    The pharmaceutical industry is still thriving, lots of expansion (planned), and huge staffing issues(can't source staff).

    This is what is distorting our GDP. Many don't understand this it seems.

    The problem is our indigenous economy, (construction trade etc) is in tatters due to spiralling costs.

    Our hospitality industry is under huge pressure. I find local pubs very quiet & a prominent Athlone pub shut its doors last week blaming costs and staff issues. An indication of what's ahead perhaps.

    But having said that, try finding a south Dublin Hotel for a night in June.

    For those saying it's just like the last recession, is it not that case that it's exactly the opposite this time?

    Personal debt was the driving cause of the issue the last time, personal debt is now at its lowest ever. Its public debt that is high

    Last I heard money in savings deposits was at record levels.

    This time, those with property (2nd houses) and assets could very well become very wealthy during a recession



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    #503
    Relax brah
    Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181326#Comment_119181326

    I know plenty of people and they aren’t from rich well off families. They work hard, got an education and took advantage of dublins booming job market.

    On boards, we always have the lense of the underpaid/lower wage scale individuals of this world. However, not everyone sits in that boat as you say but equally, the last 4-5 years a lot of savings would’ve happened to anyone who took advantage of the job opportunities dublin brings.

    I don’t want a recession (for obvious reasons) but if a crash does come and the market does readjust (property) - I personally will be sitting on alot of cash ready to pull the trigger.



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    #504
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182111#Comment_119182111

    Again, you say 'plenty'. Someone sitting on circa 150k in cash and electing to rent in South Dublin having been in a position to buy for a number of years is not a 'plentiful' circumstance.

    Well done to you (I'm not being sarcastic here), but an individual putting aside over 3k a month after rent,taxes and other expenses (particularly if you have a child) is not the butcher, baker or candlestick maker or a whole host of other occupations that make the economy or society tick. The economy is not the professional services sector.



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    #505
    brickster69
    Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Following the ECB clusterfuck press conference yesterday European bonds continue the sell off. Now QE has been turned off the question is who is going to buy them ?

    Greece heading towards financing costs of 5% / year. **** grim !

    ecb.png


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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    #506
    AdamD
    Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181367#Comment_119181367

    Walk around Dublin city on any evening of the week and you'd think the opposite. The place is hopping



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    #507
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181365#Comment_119181365

    750 per week home plus some nixers around 1200-1500 evenings and weekends.That is very normal.



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    #508
    Relax brah
    Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182547#Comment_119182547

    Well it depends on who you speak to.

    In my sector (tech) there are plenty of people my age (late 20’s) who are in the exact same position.

    This comes back to my previous point, this thread seems to have a lense on the low income earners which I fully understand and sympathise with. Equally, although I may be “exception” - it’s still not a viable position to be in re; purchasing property.

    On paper - €150k in savings whilst renting sounds great but in the last 24 months I was outbid 3 times by “cash buyers.”

    Again, there a multiple layers to this and peoples circumstances all differ. My original objection is not to assume everyone is in the same boat because they simply are not.



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    #509
    amacca
    Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119181352#Comment_119181352

    No arguments here.



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    #510
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182731#Comment_119182731

    Look, you keep saying 'plenty'.

    Tech sector workers being able to set aside 3k a month (particularly in Dublin) after rent and expenses is a tiny sliver of the economy and labour market.

    I never once said 'everyone is in the same boat', I made an observation that people sitting on cash piles of around 180k while electing to rent is a highly unusual circumstance, which it blatantly is.



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    #511
    Yurt2
    Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119182590#Comment_119182590

    No it's not.

    Unless your hypothetical 'nixers' which bizzarely exceed your take home from your full time by a factor of two are being hidden from Revenue.



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