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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    I wouldnt necessarily read wealth into that.....some of the wealthiest people I know drive 10 year old cars etc.....good cars (not falling apart etc), whereas some fairly well paid people are just balancing the books....they may have a shiny new car but its on PCP and they have a large mortgage payment on a house that was fully furnished before they moved in..............all that glistens is not gold, people make different choices, I dont know how significant pub/restaurant attendance is but new cars mean very little to me in terms of how solid a foundation peoples or the countries finances are on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Can't speak for that guy but I'm renting and I have mid 50's salary and I save 2k a month. Friend who earns around 70k told me they're saving 2.5k per month. If you're house sharing and earn a decent salary you can save a load of money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I don't really understand how people can think there's 0 chance of property prices falling.

    A massive part of the housing demand right now is foreigners. There was a picture on twitter of a queue for a viewing of a 1 bedroom apartment in Dublin the other day. 95% of them were foreigners.

    When the recession happened in 2008, most of the emigrants to begin with were non nationals. Read the below, ~75% of all those who emigrated from April 2009 - April 2010 were non nationals. The last few years we averaged 70k immigrants per year.

    The Central Statistics Office estimated that 34,500 people left the country from April 2009 to 2010, the largest net emigration since 1989. However, only 27,700 of these are Irish nationals, an increase of 12,400 since 2006. It's also notable that more people went somewhere other than the UK, EU or US, traditional destinations for Irish emigrants

    Don't think people realise how quickly people can leave. If the jobs dry up, all these foreigners have nothing tying them here and can and will leave. And once prices begin to drop, they'll drop even more as investors will start to sell up as they don't want to be stuck with non paying tenants or negative equity.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Guest Contribution: “No, the US Is Not In Recession”


    "So, is the US economy already in a recession? No. People are unhappy with inflation, which has recently been running 8.3 % [CPI change, from April 2021 to April 2022]. That is the highest since 1982. But inflation is not recession. Recession is defined as a significant decline in economic activity. Economic activity is not falling. Quite the contrary: it has been booming."



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze




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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Completely correct, I would always be wary of the man with the 1992 Toyota Carina or Avensis, and in most cases they are usually gold colour too. These are the modest people with actual wealth, as you say a lot of fancy Dans with shiny new cars and fancy sun glasses that bring the family to Avoca for €80 lunch of **** salad are most probably PCP finance and are mortgaged to their tits, keeping up with the Jones will bite these people as their flawed outlook on life revolves around materialistic items and looking the part for Insta and Facebook - Inflation and cost of living will hit these people the most.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]




    The bad news is that GDP is increasingly removed from the real feel of the Irish economy and the upcoming period will probably see household budgets fray even if the headline indicators stay positive. 


    There will be no any sign of recession from media to the next parliament elections in Ireland I think.We will hear nice lovely songs about Bright Future same as sheeps in lorry listening music about beautiful life from lorry cab on way to meat factory.

    But I know one thing Media and Politicians never lie ! So hurry get mortgage or spend all your savings this Summer !



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    So let me get this straight. Cost of living is going through the roof yet people are saving more than they ever have. What exactly gives here.

    Was there a massive income tax reduction and it wasnt applied to my wages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Why is it unusual if they can do so comfortably whilst continuing to save and mitigating risk by purchasing an overpriced property that is likely going to be worth much less in the next 12 m



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD




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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I realize that's the hedge you're making. But I wouldn't count on getting a fire-sale on properties, particularly in Dublin, only in the most extreme economic situation and where cash buyers are the last ones standing will the calculated risk you took pay off.

    And even In in that extreme scenario, you may well find yourself caught short. There's a lot of puffed up tech companies operating in Dublin with unhealthy balance sheets who will be retranching depending on economic conditions in the US.

    It's all risk, and it's one I wouldn't have been taking it you were in a position to service a low interest mortgage 4 or more years ago.



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles




  • Registered Users Posts: 12,579 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    You asked a simple question: cost of living is going up yet savings are also going up? The answer is higher wages.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,261 ✭✭✭Gant21


    Not always possible to increase wages. It’s just social welfare that is on the increase.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Certainly will be if you are a dock worker in Germany, either they get it or go on strike just as China is opening up again. All it means at the end of the day is prices going up. Then others see them getting big pay rises and then everyone else threatens to go on strike in order to offset rising prices.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    To save the kind of figures you mentioned in the time span whilst renting in South Dublin you would have to be on 120k-150k with no children and still living quite frugally month to month.

    I can't say for sure but I imagine the percentage of the population doing this is something like 0.000..



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    🔔🔔🔔 US Inflation higher than expected, 8.6% 🔔🔔🔔

    We need bigger jumps in interest rates. Need to go to at least 3% now, possibly even 4% to start with.




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....so you want to slow the economy even more, what percentage rise in unemployment is acceptable, and are you willing to pay even more taxes to facilitate this?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands




  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The economy is red hot. GDP is 11% ffs.

    People are job hopping getting massive raises.

    Where's this slowing economy exactly? Are house prices tanking? What about used car prices? There's more volume of cars on the road now than there was in 2019.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ffs, the economy of the average person isnt red hot, most people are starting to struggle, again, the metrics we use to measure the well being of our economy have largely decoupled from the life of the average person, most metrics are based on the value of asset markets, whos ownership is heavily skewed, hence why they no longer truly represent the life of most!

    yes people are job hoping for various different reasons, one being, people starting to sh1t themselves as they can see the writing on the walls!

    again, house prices are as they are as public policy is primarily to maintain asset price inflation, at all costs, no matter what!

    again, car prices are as they are, due to one of the main reasons for our current inflationary issues, i.e. supply chain issues!

    yes, there are more cars on the road, as people now must travel more to meet their needs, work related etc etc



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    That would start a sovereign debt collapse and the global banking system probably goes down with it as well. Only way out is print more money and pay the southern states debt, northern states take the debt payments on between them or leave rates low and inflation goes more crazy and eats everyone alive.

    Thinking about it, the first one goes against the EU treaties so only the two others are a solution really. If rates went to +4% debts would go to 10-12%, how the **** is Italy going to pay an extra 260 billion Euros a year to service it's debt when growth is slowing and unemployment will be going up ?

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, more money is the only answer, but it needs to be very directed, another major element of our current inflation problems is energy markets, so crack on with becoming more energy independent, and more money is the only answer to that!



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    We have all employed idiots to run our countries finances. People who would not get a job to run a small bank never mind a multi national corporation. If they were that clever they would be earning 50 million a year running Goldman Sach's not getting a 200K wage running a country.

    Pay peanuts get monkey's, i have always believed in that saying !

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    to some degree id actually disagree, the main objectives in such organizations is to maximize returns, and thats generally for the minority, run your country for long enough like that, and you ll eventually have some serious problems! i suspect many of them would actually do reasonably well in such organizations also, as they seem to be doing a pretty good job for them as it is.....

    i do think most politicians and their advisors are well paid, for a job thats absolutely sh1t, with objectives that are virtually impossible to achieve, but.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 900 ✭✭✭Get Real


    No matter how well directed it is, increasing the money supply only fuels further inflation.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....once again, our current inflationary issues have little or nothing to do with the money supply, as its largely due to supply and energy market shocks, increasing rates will do a grand total of fcuk all in resolving these issues, but will only further compound the situation!



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The Bank of England Governor at a recent Westminster committee put the inflation overshoot at approximately 80 percent supply chain shocks and 20 percent monetary policy.

    This chimes with what I'm seeing and hearing from economists I trust. We're looking at the compounded effect of several major supply chain clusterf*cks for the first time in the globalised era. Monetary policy has its role in this, but it shouldn't be overplayed.

    This will not be fixed until the supply chain issues are fixed. Want an essential widget from China for your manufacturing process? The 40 foot container cost from East to West is at least 10 times what it cost in 2019. Chinese ports are still backed up and Shanghai is only back up and running from late last week (and may go back into lockdown yet). And that's just one variable we're looking at. Just in time manufacturing processes that have extended supply chains are in a heap across many essential sectors.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    If the cost of living is increasing and wages increase to match it, you would expect people to be the same rather than better off. Cost of living rises eat into the money you could otherwise save, so a wage increase would bring you back to parity. How is it that savings are actively increasing rather than stagnating?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....and the rate of savings increases when theres rising economic uncertainty, thus slowing of the velocity of the money supply, therefore slowing the overall economy!



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