Softening house market?

If inflation persists then more rate hikes . Anyone do the math on the likely mortgage rates for new and existing mortgage holders with 1 2 3 ecb base rate ? How repayment hikes will affect the amount that can be borrowed

By sept ECB are thinking it will be .75% plus. Fed speculators are thinking an additional 1.75% . This of course will be the base rate. After that the banks make their % .

I don't see the interest rate hikes affecting the market significantly. Renting here is such a no go and there is so much more demand than supply it won't have much of an affect.

I don't have the figures to hand of how many serious bidders there are for each house in areas but I know its a high figure.

A little effect maybe, but not enough that everyone on average incomes will have their pick of houses in their chosen location.

Borrowing money for a mortgage is one of the cheapest loans you will ever get in your life. Hence when you retire and get some lump sum money from the pension, they always advice you to use that money to upgrade the car or do up the house (if you plan to do so), rather than paying off your mortgage and getting another loan for a new car or house renovation.

Your mention of recession and unemployment, this one is very hard in my opinion. I think cost of living is spiralling out of control, price of rent is crazy, everything is going up and the systems will eventually have to reset itself. But when this happens is anyones guess.

I think the assumption that variable rates will rise exactly in line with ecb rates would be foolish to expect. We already know rates are at 2.5% plus with the base ecb rate at zero. Its going to be .75 in September. Inflation will only be stopped by bigger rate increases. The US are leading on this. My guess is this time next year you will be seeing 4 % mortgage rates or higher. What gives will be expected selling prices for first time buyers and this follows up the chain.

Agreed, but might not be a wise decision always. Lately houses have been selling over 80K above the asking price. These are the same people that will complain about negative equality in 4-5 years and will want the gov to do something about it.

Maninasia buying now, is the here and now. Like what we have seen before people were buying until they weren't. Its a centiment that takes hold after buyers question affordability and there is a trigger. Interst rate rises, job losses, jobs market uncertainty, tourism drops . Businesses see less demand and in turn affects suppliers... etc etc

Whether it's inflation, or the expectation of higher interest rates, or just a general concern that we've passed the top of the market, there is some softening starting to happen out there now, rather than being a theoretical idea for the near future. I'd say it's starting at the edges of the market (e.g. apartments in SCD seem to have peaked and some are coming down now), but it breaks the narrative of 'people will buy anything for any price out of sheer desperation'. Affordability concerns are kicking in and causing some properties to stall and just sit there, even while the rental market is still in a dire state. To me the question is how much that will spread, which is the big unknown. Certainly, total supply is continuing to still tick upwards.

Is there any way to see the amount for sale on Daft over time?

It definitely seems like more houses are up now vs two months ago. Maybe people have hard rumours of the market peaking and they're rushing to take advantage?

Could be time of year too, more houses up at start of summer.

Interesting to read about the Australian housing market here - "Australian Housing Expected To Drop By 15% According To Country's Largest Bank"

Because when the landlord wants to sell they can make an excuse such as doing uo the house or giving it to a relative and turf you out.

Thats why.

many landlords selling out.

my question is how many will be bought by the gov for social housing.

People keep saying supply is ticking upwards and the truth is its not, there are more properties to buy but properties available to rent have dropped off a cliff in numbers its clear the increase in supply for sale are the small landlords running for the hills and who can blame them with the taxes and tenant issues in this country. Anyone looking on this thread should keep an eye on both properties to buy and rent as a whole for the amount of properties available.