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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,035 ✭✭✭timmyntc


    Savings rates have not yet risen though so there is no incentive not to spend yet



  • Registered Users Posts: 880 ✭✭✭moycullen14


    People with healthy six figure savings does seem a bit implausible, alright but it does happen - maybe not common, but it does happen. I know of a few and they are not in what you would call really high paying jobs. Mid-level IT, that sort of thing. It's really a mindset of saving. Get into that habit, watch the savings grow and you'd be amazed how addictive it becomes.

    Conversely I know of others in much better paying jobs/careers who literally spend every penny they get (and then some).

    I do find the attitude of saving and renting a bit odd, though. To me, security of tenure is the big plus of owning your house, repossessions being rare.

    The chances of buying at the bottom of a market are remote. If there is a crash, you risk not being able to get a mortgage at all, you might be unemployed and then where are you?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Oh I have no doubt that there are a not an insignificant amount of people with savings from relatively well salaried jobs. But the notion there is an army of clever clogs out there sitting on 6 figure savings while renting (in South Dublin no less), waiting to buy for cash is nonsense. I won't go so far as to call people like that idiots, but as a financial strategy, it strikes me as reckless. Given they could have been servicing a pretty low interest rate mortgage for years instead of spunking money on rent waiting for a housing crah that may never come, or may never come to the extent that makes their strategy even kind-of pay off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    deposits have been rising since covid, this is more than likely due to rising economic uncertainties, i.e. people are sh1tting themselves, they know whats just about to happen!



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Don't worry ! After November elections in USA sht will hit the fan.Also Rothschilds still play on them ex employee Macron side that why we will not see any strong ECB movement before parlament elections in France ! Please don't forget how Dominique Strauss Khan ended his career and why Missus Lagarde are president of ECB! All under control ! Believe me big people doesn't want them big money worth nothing .They will work hard on it !



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Rothschilds...

    Right, I'm tapping out



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    pfft, the world has moved on from that lot, its all gate's fault these days!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭macraignil


    In what sort of world is 200K per annum supposed to be peanuts?

    Maybe for elite level sports people who have a small few years working to earn all they need to retire on and their industry being full of cash due to TV viewer payments that allow the best to negotiate a lot more, but I'd hope anyone employed at that level of pay for some sort of desk job to be some way competent.

    Just working for a charity myself and get paid less than 10% of that for half time hours and was just told there is no funding for any improvement to cope with rising costs of living as the funding is already agreed for next year. Not looking for sympathy as being aware of my income being low I have not taken on a lot of expenses that others might have like a mortgage or children but just wanted to make the point that not everone is jumping jobs for big pay rises and life can become more difficult for many individuals in the economy at the same time as there is no technical recession.

    I think the Irish economy is well placed to avoid the worst impacts of a recision with a lot of people earning money from high tech industries that will be the most likely to contimue to find profitable activities in selling medicines and other highly in demand products even when other sectors slow down dramatically and the severe changes in interest rates being talked about are unlikely to be applied as they would cause more harm than good.

    A reduction in property prices would be welcome by many I think as the connection between incomes for large numbers of people and the price to get a place to live has become too distant for most and even some owning homes would not be overly depressed by this as it could mean their children might have some hope of having their own home without emigrating.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    so the fact we re well integrated into global markets, still have a lot of debts, particularly in the private domain, and a large proportion of our financial sectors activities is in the shadow banking system, we re well protected from global shocks, how exactly?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    People are just meat and fuel to create wealth.Nobody worry how many them will lose jobs or money.The more houses people will lose or less them shares will cost the more right people will earn from it.

    Politicians doesn't care about how many people will lose, politicians will make points on it trying get good salary and get seat for another 5 years.

    The most biggest and common problem of this world is People which never learn and which like Zombie believe the st from TV screen.

    Believe me nearly everybody absolutely sure that if recession will come they will not be hit by it ! Nobody doesn't think except some of us ,nobody worry and nobody didn't even tried look at world differently and all them will go to elections vote for same s,.

    I don't care about them and believe me nobody care they are worthless meat for recession fire and the more them will burn the more some people will make money on it when growth will back when those some people will sell what other people lose.

    I tell you one thing Human is the worst creature ever created by God !



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    16,17,18 centuries and before that there was plenty wars and revolutions.Most countries was sinking in blood, wealthiest families was loosing them lifes ,kings was loosing them heads.People controlled by different groups was comming on streets and was killing wealthy people and taking all they had.Or simply hunger and deseases was bringing people on streets

    So some kings bankers and other had sit and decide.Or die and lose everything or give people some sort of "freedom" call "democracy" and let people "be free"People can vote now they doesn't come on streets and media controlled by wealthy people make people "vote for right people".What changed since people got right to vote ? Nothing.Different politicians work for same wealthy people,people are still poor and are like slaves for for rich people which control media.

    Just look at the world history under wider angle and you will see it.

    The perfect example today situation in the world.You can see it very well Also look at politicians of EU.They all same team players which work for business groups and how media work.

    Nobody will tell anything about when recession will start!



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,435 ✭✭✭macraignil


    The global markets Ireland has become more integrated with buy lots of products from the businesses in Ireland that should deal with a recision better than others is what I said and still think is true. Baby formula, medicines, technology based products that will still be needed...

    The world economy has widespread private debts and I don't know of any country not effected by that factor so don't understand what you mean by that being particularly bad for Ireland. I thought I heard somewhere that personal savings here were at record high levels since the pandemic limited people's ability to spend which might offer some protection for many against personal debt being a major problem particularly if it is true that what I said about overly inflated interest rate increases not being applied comes true as these would just cause more harm than good.

    Completely miss your point about the financial sector being in the shadow of the banking system so that's another one your going to have to explain to me a bit better. I kind of looked at banking and finance as being the same sector.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2




  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    I remember similar sights during the summer of 2008



  • Registered Users Posts: 47 MoneyPrinterGoBuurrrr


    The data is out, US mortgage applications down 40%. Transaction will be down even more.

    https://twitter.com/lenkiefer/status/1534866789582217217

    Buckle up, winter is coming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    Eh, your cash might be worth very little the longer you wait to invest it. Inflation is out of control and the ecb won't do anything. You might want to invest in tips or some other inflation protection security.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    My cash will worth 10 times more because nobody will have it !

    You know why bonkers will rise rates ? Because they will make them money worth more ! Leaving people around without coin in pocket !



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing




  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Cash now is only worth the price of the goods you are trying to purchase. If a kilo of rice is 1000 Euro then 1000 Euro is worth a kilo of rice.

    If you take for example the GBP & USD on the banknote it says that " i promise to pay the bearer the sum of x dollars / pounds ".

    At the time that meant you could exchange that piece of paper for the equivalent in gold or silver ( in those day's ), now it means **** all because the currencies are not backed by gold or silver because the central banks do not hold enough gold or silver compared to the amount banknotes in circulation.

    If a currency were to back every banknote in circulation against a material asset it holds at the market price of that asset, it would in effect become the worlds only legitimate reserve currency. It could be set against any commodity or a bunch of them together. But once the price was fixed at the start x amount of that currency would always be worth x of that commodity.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I don't see inflation at the moment believe me or not !

    When prices for heating went up I stopped come to the pubs and restaurants.I pay more for home heating oil but I not spend money in a pub.

    When prices for fuels and hotels went up I stopped do 200-300 km and spend 200-300 per weekend .I simply started make barbeques at home or spend time on local beach or read more books.

    10-15 cents extra for package of sausages ot pan of bread doesn't bother me.

    I don't feel inflation.Once prices goes up I immediately starting spend less or use other options.Prices in Aldi and Lidl was always 15-20 per cent smaller ! I could very easy reach the spending target changing my menu or food suppliers.

    But what I really see now that property prices stopped or started falling.So if money getting worthless and worth nothing why gold and property prices doesn't growing up ?

    I tell you why ! The less I will spend the more people will be unemployed soon.And tell me the truth Bro ! Which money will worth more ?My 1000s on account or 220 euros doll in unemployed person pocket ?

    You know why prices of shares and gold were rising ? Because even dogs could invest to them ! Let's see them prices when people will be unemployed and them investments will not worth even piece of bone ! Remember 2008 ? People was hanging them self after phone calls!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭riddles


    You are admittedly adjusting your discretionary pending downwards to offset the impact of inflation. This happening collectively leads to a recession.



  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭Relax brah


    Recession inevitable



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭riddles


    The Q2 earning cycle will dictate a lot of what happens next. Large companies will have an idea then how much they need to cut their cloth for the write down on exiting Russia. Cost containment and potential job cuts come on the radar then.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,339 ✭✭✭TheW1zard


    During covid we all saved loads of money.

    This is the way the people who run the world (illuminati) get the money back am I right or am I right?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    No idea about that illuminati **** but without a doubt we will all give it back and more in due course.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Posts: 0 ✭✭✭ Piper Shapely Detergent


    Former BoE Governor warns of a "very unpleasant period" ahead




  • Registered Users Posts: 6,204 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    Period of Prolonged Suckage coming.

    If you haven't done already, insulate the living feck out of your house and put in solar panels because this winter is going to get very expensive



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Good luck finding someone to do that. Tradespeople in my neck of the woods are not taking on any new business as are so overwhelmed

    buying more jumpers is the more realistic option



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  • Registered Users Posts: 101 ✭✭Ciara26




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