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Are we heading for a fuel shortage?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    Where are going with this. People should drive more so we can earn more tax from it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,601 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Ah I thought we were having a reasonable exchange of views here and along comes the "so what you're saying is....(inserts something I wasn't saying) post.

    A poster mentioned something back the thread about something only being of benefit to motorists,I pointed out that that term would cover absolutely every single household I know where I live and the vast majority of houses in ireland in general,Sin è.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I'm only replying to what you posted last.

    Ultimately if there is a fuel shortage the easiest solution is less driving. It not rocket science.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,601 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Can I give you the example of my day so far today?

    A 140km round trip for a medical appointment with no option of public transport.

    2 separate walks into town.

    How would you suggest I got a bit less driving into that?

    People will do whatever suits them,if I knew it was going to start p1ssing down I would have taken the car to get milk on my second walk.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    I'd suggest if you couldn't drive you wouldn't plan your life so far from services you need or intend to use so often.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,442 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    There is these great things now called weather apps. Yes they are not always perfect but they give you some idea what the weather will be like. It is good for viewing what the in the next few hours can be like and can be quiet accurate at that.

    As for the rising cost of fuel I blame the EU and there slow actions. If they had if just banned everything in round one sections then fuel would at a reasonable price now but no they had to have a round 1 and 2 and 3, 4 and 5 then fecking 6.

    Oil was looking quiet decent before round 6 of sanctions. It was 403 euro for 300 litres of Karesine not great but still better than it was before and a lot better than it fecking is now.

    Oil at the fuel court was cheaper than it is now too what's its 2euro10cent a litre for petrol now I heard. I would not know because my vehicle is a BEV.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,601 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Haha! OK I can see I'm wasting my time here,enjoy your day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    You might laugh but thats how it works.

    Culturally that how it happens in other countries. Its a cultural shift.



  • Posts: 15,362 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    You're not wrong but you also need to take into account the increased inflation is also hitting govt spending e.g. school building program, etc. If taxaton doesnt cover the increased costs the only option left is to curtail services and funding. The biggest spenders in terms of taxation are social welfare, education and health, outside of that you are talking about small gains in terms of savings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,124 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Petrol gone up 15 cent in the last 2 days at a station near me



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,886 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    lol!!!

    Yes, sack the entire PS and put them on social welfare.

    That’ll fix everything 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,886 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Why?

    Your solution is to put MORE motorists looking for fuel on the road?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,608 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    If people are hungry why don't they eat cake.


    If you can't find a house to live in, Why not rent a hotel room long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997



    Actually its the Govt plan not mines. I was being sarcastic. Obviously went over peoples heads.



    Sorry I didn't mean to ruin your avocado toast.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,208 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    I was watching Australian TV earlier, and they switched to a Philippines news channel ( middle of the night there).

    They are pulling no punches about fuel and food shortages in the 4th quarter.

    I think our media and gov are isolating us from the possibility of sh it hitting the fan.

    We're in for a turbulent few years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,035 ✭✭✭bmc58




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,035 ✭✭✭bmc58




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,309 ✭✭✭✭wotzgoingon


    I'm on a UK/Ireland Facebook page and it is around £1.79 a litre for petrol in UK. I'd love to know if it is still mad cheap in an Arab country that pulls oil from the ground.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,442 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms


    There is these great things now called weather apps. Yes they are not always perfect but they give you some idea what the weather will be like. It is good for viewing what the in the next few hours can be like and can be quiet accurate at that.

    As for the rising cost of fuel I blame

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,601 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Did you not post this witty repartee 2 days ago? Didn't get much traction then either.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,442 ✭✭✭✭AMKC
    Ms



    I did yes. This was a mistake. I thought it had not posted and so posted it again but then seen that it had so tried to delete it which you seemingly can not do now which is stupid so I reported my own post lol.

    Live long and Prosper

    Peace and long life.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,808 ✭✭✭✭Flinty997


    There no such thing as "bad" weather just inappropriate clothing.

    We all drive too much myself included.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,254 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    There was a suggestion of odd and even number number plates being allowed travel on alternate days. Used in Paris as far as I recall.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,208 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    .https://swachhindia.ndtv.com/heres-cities-around-world-executed-odd-even-scheme-check-pollution-14625/


    In last two decades, cities like Beijing, Paris, Rome, Milan, Mexico City and Bogota have implemented the odd-even vehicle scheme at some point. It seems to be a mixed bag with some cities achieving desirable results, while others not managing to improve the air quality


    Wouldn't be the first time that sort of thing has been done, for various reasons.


    If I remember correctly, when they did odd/even in Paris, ppl went out and bought a second car, with the other type of number plate .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,700 ✭✭✭✭Muahahaha


    58 cents a litre of unleaded in Saudi today so not as cheap as I thought it would be. Was in Iran in 2008 and it was 4 cents a litre there, a taxi ride for 5-6km would cost you 25 cents. It was impossible to spend money in the country as fuel was so cheap so that made everything cheap



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,208 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    Just after Christmas i was chatting with a guy from Iraq, he told me that when he was back home a few months earlier, it wasn't uncommon too see people washing cars with petrol.

    It was just so much cheaper than water.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,208 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    Europe’s diesel crunch is set to worsen in the coming months as more European refineries shut down for maintenance this month, and unplanned outages reduce supply. European fuel demand will draw additional imports from other regions, tightening further already tight global refined product markets. The expected tightening of the diesel market in Europe will come just as the EU prepares to ban the import of Russian refined petroleum products by sea as of February 2023.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭vickers209



    Whats peoples thoughs about fuel be rationed here in comming months?

    My feeling is its not looking great theres reports of shortages appearing worldwide usa ect and with a ban on Russian imports coming in 5 weeks can only make the suitition worse,

    Translation of above

    Diesel shortage threatens due to Russian fuel import ban

    Europe has become addicted not only to Russian gas, but also to Russian diesel. Much more diesel is used than European refineries produce. A lot of diesel is also made in Europe from Russian oil.


     Due to the war in Ukraine, oil and diesel will soon no longer be allowed to be imported into the European Union, which is why the fear of a diesel shortage is growing.


     At the moment, diesel at the pump is already more expensive than petrol, where it has been the other way around for many years. Because the number of private diesel drivers is declining rapidly, the price increase mainly affects the transport sector and the business community. Indirectly, the consumer pays for this because the high diesel prices are incorporated in the price of products.

    In itself there is enough oil in the world and it should therefore be possible to make enough diesel. The shortage is caused by the fact that many refineries have already reduced imports of Russian oil and diesel in anticipation of the sanctions. Not only Europe, but also the US is now trying to import diesel from other parts of the world.


     Diesel from the various refineries in Rotterdam is often made with so-called Ural oil from Russia. It is not easy for refineries to find comparable oil on the world market or to adapt their refining processes. Oil companies around the world are now scouring the market for alternatives to Russian oil and diesel.


     BP has one of the largest refineries in Europe in Rotterdam and produces one million liters of diesel every hour. The company immediately stopped importing Russian oil after the war in Ukraine, says Karen de Lathouder, CEO of BP Netherlands. The refinery in Rotterdam was able to switch quite easily, but this is more complicated for many other companies.


     "It is difficult to switch completely from one crude oil to another in a refinery because every oil has a slightly different composition. The refineries are precisely designed for a special mix of oil and that is what the factory runs on best. If that mix changes, it doesn't work as well anymore," says De Lathouder


    Does the flame go out of the pipe?

     Because it will take time to make these alternatives suitable for the pump, the Association of Tank Stations (BETA) expects that diesel will no longer be available in some places in the coming months. "We know that the supply from Russia is stalling, while the demand is high," says Tim Schoenmakers of BETA. "That means that there will inevitably be droughts in a period of months."


     From December 5, crude oil may no longer be imported from Russia, from February 5 next year this also applies to petroleum products such as diesel. In order to prevent a possible diesel shortage, the Central Agency for Stock Formation of Petroleum Products (COVA) has stored 550 kilotons of diesel, which the Netherlands should be able to use for 90 days. On behalf of the Minister for Climate and Energy, COVA provides strategic oil stocks that are used in the event of a shortage to prevent economic damage.


     The industry association of large oil companies (VEMOBIN) is happy that the government has built up a stock, but for the time being it assumes that it does not need to be addressed. "I don't expect a diesel shortage, certainly not in the Netherlands because we produce here three to four times more than we consume. The situation in Europe is worrying, we see that the stocks are very low and expect a reduction in diesel imports, so that will lead to to a larger shortage," says Erik Klooster, director of VEMOBIN.


     Minister Rob Jetten for Climate and Energy has put a large number of experts from the oil sector to work to draw up an emergency plan before December, if the strategic stock turns out not to be enough next year. The emergency plan must state who is entitled to diesel in what order in the event of a shortage. The plan must ensure that emergency services such as the police, fire brigade and ambulances are assured of fuel. In addition, other crucial sectors must be assured of diesel to supply supermarkets with food, for example.

    Has ireland do any prep did they even replenish the stock used earlier in the year from our reserves.

    I Am very temped to fill a few jerry cans of diesel and keep as a backup in case of raitioning ect

    Post edited by vickers209 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    • "Diesel reserves have not been this low since 1951 and a ban on Russian products set for next year will intensify competition for the fuel"

    MSNBC article yesterday

    Perfect storm of diesel shortage brewing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,800 ✭✭✭9935452


    A few jerry cans wont go that far tbh.

    Im keeping a 200l drum full for the same reason.

    2 of us in the house with diesels, 30 miles to work each way. We fill about once every 2 weeks.

    55ltr and 65 ltr tanks meaning 2 fills piece, a months driving.

    Id be slow in getting a 1000l fill.

    2 grand in diesel is a target for thieves.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,208 ✭✭✭mikeecho


    Looks it could march'ish before we see problems.

    It depends on how harsh a winter Europe gets.

    Time will tell.

    https://fortune.com/2022/10/31/eurzone-inflation-record-europe-energy-crisis-just-getting-started-winter-pain/

    Is Europe’s energy crisis just getting started? The latest inflation data suggests a winter of pain ahead

    BYWILL DANIEL

    October 31, 2022, 5:06 PM UTC

    The latest inflation data out of Europe isn’t pretty.


    Consumer prices in the eurozone rose by a record 10.7% in October, up from 9.9% last month, according to the EU’s statistics agency, Eurostat. The figures surprised economists at Bank of America, who had expected inflation to cool slightly to 9.8%. 


    Despite the bloc’s best attempts to increase its energy supplies and reduce inflation, energy prices surged 41.9% last month compared with the same period a year ago.


    Europe has been coping with an energy crisis ever since the Ukraine war began in February. The invasion started just after European nations decided to rapidly shift to clean energy and shutter nuclear power plants, which left them vulnerable to an inflationary shock when Russia cut off natural gas supplies this year.


    Prior to the war, the European Union’s 27 member nations had relied on Russia for 40% of their natural gas and 30% of their crude oil. 


    As a result of reduced energy supplies, electricity bills have already tripled in many places across Europe. But lately, the bloc has managed to fill its natural gas in storage to over 90% of the annual target, slightly above the average levels seen over the past five years.  


    And natural gas prices in Europe have recently dropped to four-month lows, leading many to believe the energy crisis may be coming to an end.


    But Henning Gloystein, director for energy at consultancy Eurasia Group, argues that’s unlikely.


    “Once it gets cold, inventories will draw down. If there’s a late winter cold snap when stocks have been reduced, things could get pretty tight in early 2023, meaning possible price spikes and potential energy shortages,” he told CNBC last week.


    Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Management’s CEO, explained that the energy market, and particularly the natural gas market, is “almost solely driven by weather in the winter.”


    “So I think it’s too early to declare victory on the European gas situation,” he told Fortune.


    And Goldman Sachs analysts expect next year could be even worse for Europe, arguing in an early October research note that total energy costs across the continent could soar by $2 trillion in 2023.


    If they’re right, it would mean the typical European household would have to spend as much as 500 euros per month to keep the lights on, a more than threefold jump over 2021’s average of just 160 euros.


    “It seems to be nearly guaranteed next year will be worse,” Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow with Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, previously told Fortune.


    While energy prices are the main driver of European inflation, the latest data shows consumer price increases are becoming more widespread as well.


    Food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, for example, soared 13.1% in October, and core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, jumped 5%, compared with 4.8% in September. 


    Despite high inflation, the eurozone’s economy continued to grow last quarter. However, gross domestic product (GDP) rose just 0.2%, compared with 0.8% in the second quarter, and most experts believe that a European recession is now all but guaranteed. 


    Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, said last month that a European recession is a “done deal,” and Chris Williamson, an economist at S&P Global, told Bloomberg last week that “the eurozone economy looks set to contract in the fourth quarter…adding to speculation that a recession is looking increasingly inevitable.” 


    Spanish central bank governor Pablo Hernández de Cos also said on Monday that “recession risks are spreading.”  


    “Indeed, the economic outlook has significantly darkened in recent months. We are now confronting higher and more persistent inflation, tighter financial conditions, and a global growth slowdown,” he said in prepared remarks at a central bank conference in Turkey.


    Update, Oct. 31, 2022: This story was updated after publication to include comments from Jay Hatfield, Infrastructure Capital Management’s CEO.



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