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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,204 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious


    I'm DIYing it 😁


    It is very strange that everyone seems to be busy but not a huge amount of work being done and no mad partying as during the tiger years



  • Registered Users Posts: 76 ✭✭ericfartman


    Everyone is starting to save every cent at the minute as they know whats coming.



  • Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Higher wages?

    just pour more petrol on the fire



  • Registered Users Posts: 394 ✭✭Miadhc


    Reminds me of the lead up to the 08 crash. People warning about it and other people calling them scare mongers and doom merchants.

    Interesting times ahead.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,873 ✭✭✭amacca


    "You ask them what determines inflation in your model and they say the inflation target"


    Former governor of BOE says but surely what's happening in the economy determines inflation....


    Ffs it shouldn't take the Former governor to call that out........its the same rash bullshit peddled in a lot of walks of life by egomaniac know it alls that don't have to suffer the consequences of their actions.....and according to the governor you can trace it back to economics depts in the universities


    I wonder how much of the total bullshit being peddled by educational theorists in their group think circle jerks in other areas will be found out to be just that in the future when it has some consequences in the real world.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,594 ✭✭✭newmember2




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Deleted



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Been listening to a number of ceos talking about their decisions to slow hiring. A number saying only critical hires are to be made now.

    The ceos are more knowledgeable than the economists or politicians. They see the reality in their day to day business.

    For these global companies it really is a perfect storm of everything going wrong. Lockdown in China even affecting things big time. Inventories in the US are building up..

    For example a company like nvidia might make one component in the US. So the US were well behind on production but they've now they are back on target. But in China the lockdown meant they couldn't make a certain component. So they can't make their product fully. And because they can't make the product fully they will stop producing more of the components in the US because how can they keep pumping those out when they don't know what the supply is gonna be in China.

    And these ceos are talking about their customers lowering demand too. When demand is going up and up companies are happy to build up inventory but now they're seeing things tightening in future so these companies don't want to be left with inventory sitting there unsold so they're cutting back on orders.

    I've also heard a number of ceos say they are cutting back on costs of business travel or office parties. These companies are on a big exercise of cutting back any spending wherever they can. If things continue... Job losses will be inevitable.

    At this point even if the economy was OK, its a self fulfilling prophecy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 19,407 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    A desperate attempt by FG to regain some of the middle voters that have jumped ship in their droves. Yes, he’s had over ten years to do it. But didn’t bother his arse, instead forever pandering to the so called “vulnerable” etc at every opportunity. He can go fcuk off at this stage



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,169 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Where do you listen to CEOs? What industries? Have you got links?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    .....its always important to remember, the main concern of most ceo's is to maximize returns primarily for major share holders, which regularly includes themselves, i.e. their views tend to be extremely biased, even though generally well informed bias!



  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭B2021M


    What do you even mean by this? These are CEOs of companies who create jobs. What bias are you talking about? They are either going to be hiring or not and if they are not hiring it's not good for the economy.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    the opinions of ceo's is generally heavily biased, for the reasons explained, i.e. their main concern is ultimately the protection of major share holders, this doesnt mean their opinions are always about the concerns and needs of the general population. yes they tend to be very well informed and intelligent opinions, but.....



  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭B2021M


    So I suppose you mean that they will use bad economic conditions as an excuse to cut costs? Instead it would be better to continue on as is, make losses, potentially go out of business and make all staff jobless?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    not at all, its just to be aware of this bias, large corporations gain far more protections than other entities in society, i.e. theyre far more likely to be bailed out in times of crisis, far more likely to receive favorable conditions from creditors, particularly during crisis, such as debt forgiveness, have been heavily supported by public policies such as qe, which were designed to simply (re)inflate asset markets, i.e. they simply are not the same!

    you ll actually find many of these businesses would simply be not allowed go out of business, as they would be deemed too big to fail!

    again, they are not the same, particularly when compared to other types of businesses such as sme'e, who commonly employ more cumulatively, compared to these businesses, as is the case in america and ireland!



  • Registered Users Posts: 537 ✭✭✭B2021M


    They are all fair points I'm sure but what have they to gain by being pessimistic? Surely, if anything, they are more likely to be too optimistic in public statements??



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,204 ✭✭✭Ubbquittious




  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Maybe I wasn't paying as much attention due to my youth but was 07/08 this telegraphed?

    I mean this isn't just cranks on boards, the media is peddiling the impending doom.

    I don't remember that narrative in 07/08.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    Yes it was. David McWilliams (the only one I can remember) was predicting the 2008 well in advance.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,321 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    I think he was one of the few though, no? Sky news/RTE etc are littered with negative articles referencing the economy.

    We're all talking about the economy in work, in my social circle. Never been discussed with such vigor in my memory.

    Maybe it's just my age, in my 20s in 07/08 we were probably just ignorant to the goings on of the economy.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    He might have been one of the few but he was very vocal about it. It was around March 20th that Bertie Ahern made an awful comment about people speaking negatively about the economy. So there was definitely rumblings that all was not rosey on the garden.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think that kind of news says plenty about condition of some people pockets and to what those people give priority at the moment.

    Update

    Just spoke with one lad from China about all shortages and situation.

    He said there is no shortage with chips the problem is with Cheap chips because some companies profiting on situation and selling 1.5 -3 bucks worth chips for 250-300 bucks .

    Also I asked about Chinese chips export to USA and he reminded me old saying about Chinese customs.He said do you really believe China will send chips to support those who supporting Taiwan? Chinese customs can create million reasons why they can't send chips out.

    So folks there is plenty things behind those "shortages".

    Post edited by [Deleted User] on


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze



    Incomes have risen faster than consumption.

    In ten years, aggregate labour earnings have doubled.

    Profit incomes are also strong.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I don't see any pay rise.I see slaves shortage for peanuts but not shortage of right lads for work.

    I am fully qualified Carpenter Joiner with 31 year of experience .I left joinery 3 years ago and never looked back since ! More ! I hope I will never will have back to this s,.. !

    You know how much I will get 70 km from Dublin ? 12.50 per hour ! Were I will be squeezed as lemon ! With flat rate overtime or might be 15 per hour in cash to keep HAP and WFP right ! Making 40 to 70K worth kitchens delivered to Dublin ! And for this money I will have bring Own Tools ! In same "company " I will find children with 11 euros per hour ! With today 1200 euros per house rent !

    20 km from Dublin I will get 17 euros .Were I will be offered 12 hours work per day and were I will have bring my tools also ! Because I will travel 100 km per day I will have buy own fuel and have own car.So this will be the same as 12.50 per hour but 50 km difference.

    I will get 28-32 euros per hour in Dublin but I will have to be self employed with own van with all gear included and will work from phone call to phone call and will come to bed keeping phone in hand waiting for call from agency .

    I came to Ireland in 2004 and there was Always shortage of workers ! Permanent ! Sorry shortage of slaves for peanuts ! Normal and qualified guys was Never needed ! Only cheap labour!

    Most workshops are s .. holes ! No extraction no heating no toilets or cantine ! We was getting our tea simply putting board on press we just made !

    You know what I understood since ? Never come to country from which local are emigrating !

    Look at indeed ads ! Same money as in 2014 in most ads !In country were rent are double since 2004 !

    Around 18 lads left company in 2021 per year before we got pay rise ! Otherwise we would get maximum 50 cent extra after couple months begging ! Only thanks to those lads company management started thinking because could not find anybody ! But with recession coming everything will back as it was before !

    The one thing I agree about is Profit Growing ! Profit Never Got Down !



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    If ceos see massive demand they're not going to slow down hiring. So when they start talking about hiring freezes or cutting costs they're anticipating trouble.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,974 ✭✭✭Ohmeha


    There was a number more than just McWilliams calling it out between 2006-08

    I found chief "doom monger" Morgan Kelly here on Prime Time on April 17th 2007 debating with that clown Jim Power

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gd6ZwqLePC0



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Maybe certain sectors incomes not all that's for sure. Maybe its what's driven the whole thing mad.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    Hej Buddy ! What happening ? Deflation in Russia ? Inflation in USA ? Sanctions doesn't work ? What about your 20 per cent rate ?

    Russians has laugh saying Biden bought dollar for 200 rubbles thinking that dollar will cost 300 rubbles when now dollar cost only 60 rubbles :)))



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,240 ✭✭✭Sammy2012


    I don't doubt there was more than McWilliams. He used to do those shows with the catchy phrases such as "deckland"! Thats why I remember him. But I guess what goes up must come down. So no matter what we will have a down turn again.


    I think we are already on the downward side of things. Not actual evidence but we both would have good jobs but starting to cutback in small ways. Less money spent on things like takeaway coffees, kids summer camps etc but we don't have any more money in our pockets. It's costing me almost twice as much per month for diesel now and household bills are increasing so it evens out.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    At least most countries have agreed to pay for gas with roubles eventually instead of getting the gas turned off. Only took a month or so to come round to the idea like.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



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