Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

salonfire · 13-06-2022 8:27am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194629#Comment_119194629

Nothing wrong with a customs union making sure their border is secure, either by sea or land. Nothing to be ashamed of in that.

Far more shameful is to emboldened the UK into thinking they can push aside the EU without even a whimper in response like it is now.

salonfire · 13-06-2022 8:30am

Rubbish. It's keeping in step with the UK all the way. They publish the Bill this week. The EU starts the ground work. If the UK sign that bill into law, the EU staff the borders.

Leroy42 · 13-06-2022 8:33am

Not a whimper of a response? The EU forced the UK into accepting it obligations to NI by signing up to NIP.

If the UK had a different approach they would have taken it.

Despite the EU standing firm throughout, despite the continual threats, and subsequent climb downs, of the UK, you somehow think the EU needs to change approach?

13-06-2022 8:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194641#Comment_119194641

What has that got to do with what you said?

"Start publicly preparing the ground-work for land Border infastriucture, steps to starting the withdraw from the TCA.

Once people see diggers on the ground in places like Strabane/Lifford, the bombs start going off in the UK mainland (probably beginning with warning shots with no loss of life), disruption to UK supply chains, it will further weaken the position of the UK."

You gave a step-by-step process for restarting the troubles, having the UK bombed, and the desired effect of doing so.

Why?

peter kern · 13-06-2022 8:50am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194620#Comment_119194620

i think its rather clear if they had thought they could have afforded a hard brexit they would have done it long before. if they really break the ni agreement that will get them to a place they did not want to go .

and while the eu is careful they will also do what is needed.

i would still bet 100 euro with kernit that ireland will be in the single market for the next 5 years.

Seth Brundle · 13-06-2022 8:51am

You gave a step-by-step process for restarting the troubles, having the UK bombed, and the desired effect of doing so.

Why?

mod: let's have no more discussion on the absurd proposal that the EU would/should/could even consider instigating violence in NI.

kowloon · 13-06-2022 9:32am

Hope this isn't breaking the mod warning, but is it inevitable that a hard border would restart the troubles? Surely republicans could sit back and watch the NI economy do the job violence couldn't. The knowledge that they were screwed over by their own government will sink in with all but the most devout unionists.

Headshot · 13-06-2022 9:55am

I cannot recall such an awful despicable Government in the UK.

They are really nasty peices of work

Igotadose · 13-06-2022 9:57am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194960#Comment_119194960

You do have to marvel at the 'deport them to a hotel in Rwanda' the same week as 'break a treaty.'

Somewhere I saw some Brexit nim complaining that the EU is insisting on negotations requiring implementation of the Protocol a-priori. The cluelessness is impressive.

And, it's not like things are going well in the UK independent of this totally manufactured political row. Inflation? Food banks? Housing/health care/...

Sam Russell · 13-06-2022 10:11am

There are plenty of actions the EU could (and will) take that will not be in the NI territory.

They can (and will) deFrost the legal action started last year but stalled it when the UK issued their 'Command Paper' with proposals. They were answered by proposals from the EU but the EU are still awaiting a reply.

They have already frozen the UK out of the Horizon Europe with €95 billion budget. This will cost UK Universities, and UK research dearly.

They can ban UK fishing boats access to EU waters with little notice.

They can do a lot of annoying things to UK passport holders as they pass through EU airports, and also make life unpleasant in small ways for UK passport holders living in the EU.

They can increase checking UK exports at French and Dutch ports, causing further delays. Perhaps checking the labels are not only in imperial measures, but include metric ones.

They may even think of a few nasties that would annoy the UK Gov and the general Daily Mail and Express readers and send them ballistic. They may even set up a group whose sole job is to think up such things.

Seth Brundle · 13-06-2022 10:24am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194857#Comment_119194857

It would be a dangerous gamble to partake in. Hopefully it would not trigger violence by anyone but all it might take is a one or two nutjobs and we're back to where we were pre-GFA - all to appease a few anti-EU Tories and NI bigots.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2022 10:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119194270#Comment_119194270

No, there won't The protocol doesn't make the British check anything leaving the EU (and NI) going into the UK, just the reverse. You never got back to me on what goods are substandard since British exporters are still selling into the EU, albeit with self-imposed difficulties.

salonfire · 13-06-2022 10:26am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195033#Comment_119195033

The UK unilaterally extended the grace period on checks on the Irish Sea back in Spring time. Still waiting for the EUs response to that...

pixelburp · 13-06-2022 10:27am

At best, a hard border would possibly only fast track talk of a border poll, and the relative insanity of dividing an island in twain, with such a noted cross border economy and infrastructure prior to the barriers going up. Why are we closing off our neighbors to placate a country we don't belong to or respects us?

As with most of its plays at the moment, the DUP's passive leaning towards the hard border might hasten the thing they most fear.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2022 10:30am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195108#Comment_119195108

This isn't a breach of the protocol.

salonfire · 13-06-2022 10:33am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195130#Comment_119195130

I think you.. I think you have just found the solution! Just have the UK extend the grace periods indefinitely!

Oh come on. It was unilateral UK action that is potentially putting the Single Market at risk and the EU didn't do a damn thing about it. Easy to see where Kermit is getting his theories from.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195148#Comment_119195148

Can you prove that this puts the single market at risk?

Kermit's been pushing this baseless narrative for some time. I'll believe it when I see evidence.

roosterman71 · 13-06-2022 10:39am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195148#Comment_119195148

The EU don't care as the UK are still aligned with EU minimum standards. Plus the EU are free to export into the UK without barrier whereas the UK can't into the EU. Pushing those checks out means nothing until such time as the UK start to deviate away from minimum EU standards

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2022 10:45am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195188#Comment_119195188

This is the thing. The UK still adheres to EU legislation and standards. They now have to do extra admin to prove it when exporting. That's all.

Leroy42 · 13-06-2022 10:49am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195108#Comment_119195108

This suits the EU though. They have free access to the UK, while being able to impose checks on UK exports coming into the EU. EU would be perfectly happy to continue to be able to treat the UK as part of the SM for their exports (EU to UK) while treating the UK as a 3rd country for Imports. The only way for the UK to get around this is to move products through NI, which if they try will be picked up by the EU and place the UK in a terrible position as the need for a sea border will be even greater.

The UK are continually painting smaller corners for themselves, each time declaring that this time this really is the last straw.

Nobody believes them. The logical extension of all this is that the deal is ripped up. And nobody believes that is where the UK want to go. So, just as previously, this will create a lot of noise, a lot of bluster, people like JRM will come out saying this is the only way, which is an acceptance that Brexit really has no benefits.

salonfire · 13-06-2022 11:03am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195221#Comment_119195221

OK, I'll take your word for it that standards are still be maintained over there.

It is surprising to me that UK businesses aren't already engaged in a race to the bottom now they are free of EU oversight. Especially given the cost of living crisis, you'd think that there would be a market to sell cheap sausages bulked with sawdust. Could even be an opportunity for criminals similar to the horsemeat scandal.

ancapailldorcha · 13-06-2022 11:36am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195322#Comment_119195322

You don't have to. Goods exported from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and the Single Market are checked for compliance.

The whole "let's burn regulation and everything will be utopian" thing is scutter from tabloid hacks and nothing else. It's not rooted in reality. If it were, the Tories would have done it by now. If there's one word that characterises this government, it's indolence. The only thing they detest more than the EU is having to work. Scrapping food standards means replacing them with something else, either regulation by legal precedent, a new framework, etc.

Sam Russell · 13-06-2022 11:38am

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195322#Comment_119195322

The horsemeat scandal was within the single market, involving Hungary, Belgium, France, etc. It was picked up in Ireland, through regular market surveillance - the way the SM works.

There is no ban on horse meat, just do not label it as beef, or anything else that it is not. [We do not eat horse meat for historical reasons - horses were always more valuable as draught animals and when done, they were considered unfit for human consumption].

The regular market surveillance continues throughout the SM every day. Any deviations would soon be detected, and action taken to correct it.

ambro25 · 13-06-2022 1:20pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195322#Comment_119195322

To engage in that race to the bottom, you need enough working capital and/or investment.

After the scramble to adjusting to a hard Brexit quasi-overnight, then Covid, and now materials and energy cost surges, there is little of either left in the UK and, looking at FDI figures, very little appetite from overseas. Moreover-

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119195148#Comment_119195148

-that ‘solution’ you suggest would make the problem still worse, by maintaining the regulatory ambivalence which has been scaring the living daylights out of (non-disaster) capitalists for years now.

Today’s announcement and publishing by Truss is not going to help in that respect, either.

There’s FUBAR, and then there’s Brexit FUBAR, charting new depths of FUBAR’ness every day since 2019.

13-06-2022 1:49pm

I see the Protocol is under advanced threat and Dublin reportedly furious. Will it ever see the light of day as law or is Johnson simply presenting the next dead cat and marching everyone to the top of the hill again?

johnnyskeleton · 13-06-2022 2:17pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196184#Comment_119196184

Who is reporting that Dublin is "furious"? I ask because Michael Martin was on the news earlier and I would describe his demeanour as "sanguine" or "dissappointed, but not surprised".

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2022/0613/1304429-ni-protocol-legislation/

I think its just another stunt by the Tories, specifically by Truss to set herself up to replace Johnson. The UK population, at least the Brexit supporting portion of them, are so insulated from the rest of the world that stunts like this appease them in the short term, and there is no fixed long term objective.

awec · 13-06-2022 2:31pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196438#Comment_119196438

I am sure that secretly they are furious, though publicly they will express disappointment.

I expect that EU reaction will be tempered initially, given it's not yet a law and there is a decent chance that this is just another stunt that falls flat on it's face.

Podge_irl · 13-06-2022 2:32pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119192999#Comment_119192999

That you are "not sure" whether Ireland requires permission from the EU to engage in their own diplomatic relations something precludes the idea that you are the only one who understands markets and politics and we are all the fools.

This is not even getting into the utterly ridiculous suggested response.

breezy1985 · 13-06-2022 3:03pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196544#Comment_119196544

Ide say secretly they don't care because they know Johnson is a shte talking spoofer who has no intention of following through.

awec · 13-06-2022 3:10pm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119196786#Comment_119196786

Oh they will definitely care because if nothing else this is disrespectful and dishonest, and the EU has had to waste so much time and money dealing with British incompetence and uncertainty.

Brexit discussion thread XIV (Please read OP before posting)

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