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Softening house market?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    OK to split hairs the supply of properties for sale is slightly up and the rental ones are way down (no argument there and in fact I think rental will go even lower).



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Houses prices will rising or will not falling because there is supply and demand issues.Usual wishful thinking templates used and in use already.

    Reality is :

    Small landlords selling them houses because try earn money as did before.Sell on the top buy on the bottom.But wait ! Inflation make money less worthy so they risk not get anything cheaper ? So why they selling the cow which give milk ?

    Every recession will come with higher unemployment.Many unemployed people will have leave country because will not afford pay sky high rents.Today rents are a lot higher then in 2008.So who said this not gonna happen ?

    Unemployment also will cause less mortgage receivers.Who will buy houses when people will not get mortgages ? Because they are unemployed or ECB rates will make mortgages less affordable ?

    Savings rising and buyers will buy for cash ? Wait a minute ! Who said those who has savings in cash will buy houses ? Might be opposite daddies and mummy's will help them unemployed children cover mortgage payments ?

    The investment and coockoos are most biggest buyers of property in Ireland.They actually main investment engine of building industry in Ireland and main problem of supply because they buy 30-140 houses in one go.Who said they will not get rid of assets and will not start Sell Off fixing profits on the top ? Or because shares holders in USA due with money shortage will not start pumping money from those companies ?

    So folks there is many for and against but please don't tell that prices will not falling because is supply and demand or inflation.Could be different then you think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    cool just highlighting this fact for those saying the market is softening when the actual over all number of properties for both sale and rent is way down and is continuing to reduce meaning our supply issue will be even more acute by the end of the year cant see prices rising under that condition alone add in building being stymied by raw materials cost increases and our decision to take in 10s of 1000s of refugees, these people need places to live.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Shortage of labor show that Ireland getting to expensive to come and work.

    Higher rents and shortage of houses will put pressure on cheap labour market and will make Irish export shrink or will make export less competitive on foreign markets.

    Labor are fuel of the economy and when labor will start to leave (already did) this will put huge pressure on country economy .The shortage of cheap labour started already and you could see it from small shop to queues in Dublin airport.Ireland getting to expensive to live work and create business.

    Unfortunately many refugees not willing take work places for many reasons.The main is low quality or no education.Labour force from Eastern Europe was more educated and qualified.But due with cost of living in Ireland and rising incomes at home many of them left or leaving already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Oh I completely agree. There will be effectively nothing left to rent by the end of the summer (if not sooner at the rate demand is increasing) and people who never thought homeless would apply to them will unfortunately find themselves in that predicament.



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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    also they’re really focussed on million plus AUD mortgages in that video. Had a quick Google and average new mortgages in 2021 was AUD550k.

    Here the average new mortgage in 2021 was around €240k I think. We’re in a much better position measured by outstanding mortgage balances as well as leverage multiples.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    If tenant decides to ignore, landlord will need two years to force eviction, system is a joke so might as well play it



  • Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Cantstandsya



    Average first time buyer mortgage loan in: Ireland = €262,000; Australia = $453,579 (€302,257)


    Average income in – Ireland: €44,202; Australia: $90,917 (€60,612)


    So, income to mortgage loan ratio is about 1:6 in Ireland and 1:5 in Australia.


    Factor in that tax is also much lower in Australia meaning that people have more money left over to actually pay their mortgage and I’m not sure how you’ve come to your conclusion here.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,128 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio




  • Registered Users Posts: 3,528 ✭✭✭StevenToast


    Theres a soft landing coming

    "Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." - Fletcher



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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,105 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Unintentional Landlord here, my tenant is leaving the country, so hope to put my place up for sale next month. Really hope I can shift it, talking to estate agent I know in the area and he says its very weird atm. He's not seeing cash buyers the last while. So plan is I'll put it up for a two months, going to price it lower than anything in the area and if I get the asking price will snap their hand off. Will try the council too, but they have quite a bit in the area so not sure they will want anymore. I'll be lighting candles until its gone.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Its still a sellers market out there I doubt you will need any candles



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,105 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7




  • Registered Users Posts: 2,555 ✭✭✭Irish_rat


    Just looking at my estate in a prime location in Limerick, houses were selling 40k over asking last year.

    I couldn't imagine what it's like now. It looks a great time to sell but you end up having to find a house as good



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    I think you are wise off load as quick as you can, I'd say If you price it lower than the going rate you still should have no problem shifting it, but for sure sentiment is changing in a bad way.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Regardless of sentiment a lot of development has stalled due to the huge increase on cost for raw materials, we will not meet our quota this year for new houses bring built. I cant see it being anything but a sellers market for at least time taken for the duration of the war in the Ukraine.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,543 ✭✭✭✭AdamD


    That comparison isn't particularly useful when our mortgages are mostly capped at 3.5 times income. All it shows is that people on lower incomes in Ireland simply aren't getting mortgages at all



  • Registered Users Posts: 737 ✭✭✭Cantstandsya


    I suppose it depends on how you choose to interpret it. I could just as easily suggest that it shows that Irish couples (most first time buyers are couples) are overstretching themselves to get every penny of that 3.5 rule whereas the Australian couples are leaving themselves a bit more breathing room.



  • Registered Users Posts: 433 ✭✭WacoKid


    With the shortage likely to continue are people willing to sit out the next 3-5 years of their life in the hope of a better price for a house, or buy soon and get on with their lives.

    I am hoping to start a house renovation soon (quotes pending 😬). I know costs will be at an all time high but I am not willing to sit and wait. It may turn out I wasted a pile of money I could have saved...or it may turn out I wasted years sitting about and hoping for lower costs when I could have been enjoying the house.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I know lads which do work on sites and people from hire plants.The guys from sites already selling sets of them tools because no job and people from hire plants saying that things are mad quiet and machines returning from sites.All this happening at busiest for sites time of the year !

    Surely guys from sites will back to own countries at summer Holliday some of them will stay at home abroad trying save money not paying crazy rents in Ireland or simply taking job at home.

    Some Irish lads will go to Thailand some to Ausies or USA were they worked during recession in Ireland.UK still waiting for right lads no matter there is slow down too.

    But if you have good flow of coins to your pocket and not gonna take loan .If you looking for right lads doing right job,not the monkeys for peanuts.Why not then ?

    But things in September will start changing rapidly.To the bad side for sure.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 433 ✭✭WacoKid


    Thanks for this. May I summerise back for your confirmation please:

    Cheap labour is already leaving and may not return anytime soon. The labour that remains will be of high quality but will cost a pretty penny.

    However, as materials will be an all time high, a lot of building sites are closing/home renovations put on pause, will that not see somewhat more competitive labour rates for the remaining work?



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Who knows ? Live in Ireland quite expensive.Lets see how things will goes.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    While you might get your renovation cheaper in say 3-5 years people waiting that period for a property do have to pay extortionate rents in that time frame so it is a bit different. But I get your point a lot of people on here think that some people have a choice to buy or not to buy when a lot of personal circumstances will dictate to buy or not too much more than supply.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,450 ✭✭✭fliball123


    I think it will be cheaper to build in Ireland in 2 years time (dont quote me on that just a finger in the air feeling). I reckon anyone with vanity projects that are extensions will not pay the extraordinary prices currently being quoted. Had two quotes from the same company there in March this year and October of last year and for the same work it was 40% dearer in March. Already (last week) I asked them again what they would quote and the company in question have dropped the price by 5%. I just said I will ask you again in October and see how much more your willing to come down. Too many issues messing with supply chain and raw materials prices. Ukraine, Covid, Brexit (including article 15 about to take flight with Boris acting the feck). Add in the new green initiatives hopefully in a few years as a country we will be less dependent on other countries for our electricity. Electric cars are starting to ramp up too.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭wassie


    I'm not interpreting. Just comparing the numbers.

    Nealy 25% of all new mortgages at the end of last year had a LTI or 6x or higher. AFAIK lenders in Ireland wont lend above 4.5x income. The old maximum LTIs the banks had in Aus are eyewatering.

    I don't think Aussie couples are leaving much room at all, especially if you bought recently in Sydey or Melbourne where you pretty much need a dual income to afford to buy.




  • Registered Users Posts: 433 ✭✭WacoKid


    Also, if people do have the sums available to them, while they are sitting it out inflation is constantly reducing the savings they are sitting on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,839 ✭✭✭mcsean2163



    Currently paying variable on mortgage and watching deposit of approximately 200k getting wiped out.

    No bridging loans in Ireland and banks will only go about 650k mortgage so another house we're in interested in already €70k over asking. Not seeing softening at all yet (despite supply up to 13,525 on myhome) and having problems with cash buyers biding against us. Didn't realize there were that many people with over 800k in their bank accounts. Should have joined Facebook before the float!

    Post edited by mcsean2163 on


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster



    looks like US is sneezing . Will we all get a cold this side. If I were thinking of selling I would be getting the property on the market now



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster




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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 14,105 Mod ✭✭✭✭pc7


    Dublin, Handlemaster



This discussion has been closed.
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