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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭tooka


    The tough choice facing the ecb and the fed is that as inflation gets more and more out of control they will more than likely have to force the economy into a recession to get prices under control

    the problem with high inflation is the longer its stays high the more It becomes entrenched in the economy. but a too aggressive approach to reduce inflation could push the economy into a very severe recession.

    the Choice is grim, high inflation meaning in the short term high costs of living and price surges for the average person leading eventually to a recession or force a recession now with very high unemployment.

    The biggest problem with the fed and the ecb is that politics stops them being from being completely neutral, they are not moving fast enough to help solve these problems



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I think that they are also worried that increasing interest rates will create pain but have absolutely no effect on inflation whatsoever, because so much of it is caused by supply chain issues. So we end up with both bad outcomes: a deep recession plus high unemployment and also inflation that won’t come down



  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭tooka


    increasing interest rates will help with inflation and likely cause a recession.

    but do nothing and inflation will cause serious problems for the poorest in society and we still a recession anyway

    there is no easy solution.



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    This is exactly it. I am deeply skeptical that monetary policy is causing the greater proportion of the inflation.

    The confluence of events fouling up the globalised supply chain pretty much for the first time in the globalised era across so many sectors is an event we haven't yet dealt with.

    Being able to pull the lever of interest rates is great and all, but only if it has the intended effect.

    Developing economies with weak currencies and febrile social systems are going to have a very rough time if interest rates are jacked up too suddenly too quickly. That's to no one's benefit.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Putting up interest rates too fast will cause the largest emerging market crisis we have ever seen, with all the social consequences that will come down the line, and if it doesn’t reduce inflation like it would in a ‘normal’ price wage spiral then it will have been for nothing. That’s the balance that’ll need to be found



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  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭tooka


    I agree

    but interest rates need to be 3% and politics is stopping it from happening.

    people on tracker and variable rate mortgages are obviously very upset with this hike and it will affect them deeply but it needs to happen for the good of the economy long term

    inflation needs to kept low and under control and if that means high internet rates long term than that’s the price we must pay



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Bringing country into recession they will reduce oil and energy demand what will reduce them prices also.

    But you are absolutely right ! Inflation coming from energy not the financial and banking sector.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Every time same song This time will be Different.

    But lessons of 1929 always the same.

    One day I spoke with guy about investing to Bitcoin and shares.His answer was very short and simple Don't put your money to things you don't understand.

    Hope those who invested has understanding what they do and will leave train on time.But something tells me that Train will be full to the end.

    Today even dogs has Bitcoin app on them neckless.I don't think they will winners.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    I don't think increasing rates will have no impact on inflation.

    I think it'll have the exact impact they want it to have if they increased them enough.

    I was looking at a car at the weekend in a dealer. Another guy comes along. We're talking about cars and he says maybe he'd be better off buying a new car. I say that's all well and good as long as you have the money. He replies back.."ah there's always someone else you can talk to about that". It was such a perfect summing up of why things are the way they are. This guy just didn't seem to care about the cost as he could just get a loan and pay it back with basically 0% interest.

    But if rates were risen enough where borrowing costs were enough to put people off, then when it comes to buying a new car, that guy would probably not be able afford that new car. This kills demand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Not good news for Galway, I think the technology sector could be under pressure, Listened to David McWilliams podcast this morning he was saying he was chatting to people in Silicon Valley that he knew and that the few interest rate hikes have basically caused a credit crunch there. Anyone with an Idea got money thrown at them last 5 years, non profit generating companies that rely on growth will get hammered.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,190 ✭✭✭✭B.A._Baracus


    I'm no expert on this (who truly is?) But in the 2008 recession I hear that while the banks started the mess it was also the idea of recession that helped bring the recession right?

    So could we also see it again? So much talk about recession that people spend less and in turn help bring it on?



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Yes there's such thing as a self fulfilling prophecy when it comes to recessions.

    But you could also just have the situation where peoples disposable income they'd be spending in places is now being spent on things like fuel or oil and that bit of spending reduces demand too, before people start tightening their belts at all.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,504 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    Looking more and more like the covid bounce was an aberration and now the inflationary effect of flooding the world with cash as a tool to fight covid has come home to roost



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Japan announces another 1 trillion yen to be printed to buy more of it's debt. Say's it all really, printing money to buy debt that cannot be paid back.


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,609 ✭✭✭Tonesjones


    The global economy has been drunk on easy and free money for too long

    Overdue hangover and the inevitable crash to reality.

    Winter will be bleak and the low earners (myself included) will pay the tab



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    Japan is a bit of a unique case. It's debt it is overwhelmingly internally held, it is coordinated with the central bank and governemnt by large Japanese institutional investors who themselves are hold extremely large amounts of foreign debt.

    In turn Japan is the world's largest creditor, with trillions on the go at any given time, but it is generally extremely safe debt they own like long term US Treasury bills.

    Japan adding to its debt pile makes the Japanese economy more sluggish in the long term, but it's all debt they can easily service.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...but again, this isnt money supply induced inflation, its primarily supply and energy market shocks, its a massive risk, increasing rates in the hope it ll resolve it, what if it doesnt, what if it causes a significant slowing of the global economy.....

    ...once again, most money thats been created in both the public and private domains has effectively remained in the financial sector, inflating asset prices, it has not made it into the real economy, once again, this is not monetary induced inflation, but.......

    ....one again.........



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    What exactly is happening here?

    Japanese bank is printing money which is then used to lend to the government via bonds?



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i assume its something like that, since theyre a sovereign nation



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    The opposite. Japanese gov. bonds purchases are typically coordinated with very large financial institutions (Nomura etc). Japanese institutions are gigantic creditors to the global economy via both investments and extremely low risk sovereign debt purchases. The Japanese economy is a gigantic debt car wash, but it's very low risk debt.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    The memo sent Wednesday also outlined other cost-cutting measures such as cancelling some travel for the group immediately, limiting participation in industry conferences and instructions to hold group meetings virtually when possible.

    It begins with the low hanging fruit. Then it moves on to culling the labour.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,382 ✭✭✭✭Geuze


    Reflecting on QE, I am wondering about its impacts.

    Yes, QE did drive long-term bond yields very low, okay.

    And yes, that meant Govts and large corporates could borrow cheaply. And long-term mortgage rates fell.

    If you measure the effectiveness of QE by reducing LT interest rates, then it worked very well.


    But I wonder, were the costs of QE also significant?

    How much of the current inflation is due to QE?

    Can we be sure that the net benefits of QE are positive?



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,669 ✭✭✭Allinall




  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...its clearly obvious that qe was introduced to truly only benefit asset markets, and its primary owners of such, for these entities it has been an incredible success, but for those that dont own assets, tough sh1t! this will clearly work out well for all of us, including those that gained from such!



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,020 ✭✭✭MacronvFrugals



    Is Powell going to channel his inner Volcker?





  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    We do all know that inflation hits the poorest the hardest? If you let to wander and it gets inbeeded year in year out, this will just lead to a prolonged stagflation that will much much worse than a quick and short recession.

    Lots of people now predicting the Fed is going to up its rates by 0.75% on Thursday. Why? Because they have been behind the curve since the end of last year and are now playing catch-up.


    In reality, rates in a normal economy should be 2-3%. If one cannot increase rates to 2% in case there is a global meltdown, then that says a lot about how addicted we are to cheap money where necessary reforms are put off.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ....but again, this isnt money induced inflation.......



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Em, many many economists would disagree with you there...

    From Mervyn King to ironically Janet Yellen.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...yes we know, cause theyre all primarily mainstream economist or neoclassically based, the school of thought that ultimately brought us such crashes as 08!



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