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A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,460 ✭✭✭Arthur Daley


    Who cares if it's asset price inflation or not asset price inflation. The punter doesn't care, they've been living with ridiculous cost of living increases since this madness began ten+ years ago. Increasing the supply of something reduces it's value. This is basic stuff, no need for a peer reviewed paper, it's common sense a market trader would know.



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,593 ✭✭✭snotboogie


    Ok.... but the OP I replied to was pondering why Supply Chain issues out of China are worse in 2022 that in 2020 or in 2021. Thats a fair question if one is not aware of the unique pandemic response within China and how it has played out.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    property is now considered an asset, i.e. a part of asset markets, i some how think the average punter is very concerned about this, as many are still paying their mortgages, and many others simply cant get access to such markets! maybe this is playing a part in the cost of living crisis!



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    ...again, hardly anything to do with the supply chain and energy shocks!

    OK, so you now agree with me?

    2021 inflation of 7% had nothing to do with Ukraine or China (Correct)... yet somehow, today in 2022 it's all about Ukraine (Energy shocks) and China (Supply chains)?

    Does.not.Compute

    *Again I'm not saying these have not had an effect but its the monetary policy that has kicked all this off and then some, as we can see from what happened in 2021



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78




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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    You are refuting arguments by saying the same thing in a different way, and you offer no literature or links to support your point of view either.


    deficit spending was pushed into the economy via pup and ewss etc, i.e. it worked! unemployment figures are currently back at pre covid levels, i.e. people have moved on! removing pup and ewss was a major mistake, its helping to force up wages! they should have been left in place, but scaled back, if recipients returned to work, reducing risk to both the economy and employers

    Again, you are not defining what 'it worked' is.


    But your logic is bananas.

    Fight inflation by spending more money (on PUP and EWSS) and giving people free cash... to chase the same level of products and assets....



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,036 ✭✭✭joseywhales


    The dollar continues to grow stronger despite the inflation. I think what's happening is that inflation is so bad elsewhere that it's driving up demand for the dollar as a safe haven currency. But of course all of these are fiat currency, so overall the value of money is depreciating with respect to commodities.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    again, most money created has remained in financial markets, hence inflation in asset markets such as property

    Debunked by whom exactly? You?

    there are actually many non mainstream economists out there explaining this stuff very well, and have been for decades, some are respected academics, some not

    Again, like who?



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    You're quoting the US '21 inflation rate as if it's the global economy. It's a large proportion of it, but it's not the global economy. Eurozone inflation for '21 was 5%, an overshoot of the usual 2% target but tells a far more modest story.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I don't see gold price rising.So why gold price are not rising if printed money flooded the world and cause inflation ?



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    An excellent and perfectly delivered rebuttal.


    You are coming across as one of those Zerohedge nuts spouting about conspiracies and such by the way you are debating.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Ah I don't think it matters now at this stage we are more than likely bolloxed anyway



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,412 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Well, the focus of the debate at the moment is about the US as they are the biggest players.

    Even so, 5% inflation when there was no war on in Europe isn't actually great now is it, especially when we know that inflation data lags. What's the ECB target inflation, 2%? Yet they are still in negative rates and in QE mode, well up to this month?

    I do agree that there are differences between European and US inflation, especially core inflation, but the ECB seems to be asleep at the wheel, it may end up being the same cluster **** of Central Bankers being too slow to turn off the tap of cheap money.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    There will always be new jobs announcements. Recessions don't mean no companies grow.

    We're also still in the very early stages of this.

    I don't think any reasonable person can be sure everything will be fine and there'll be not many job losses. The conditions right now are not good, hence the stock market tanking.

    We're probably getting the recession we should have got during covid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    All because the left, liberals and democrats want to take out Putin.


    Meanwhile smokey Joe is 'heading' off to KSA.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    They shouldn't have printed money the last few years like it was free when it was clear that the economy was ticking over just fine. Looking at the markets, house prices etc it is clear that the printed money wasn't necessary. Yet they kept printing it anyway. Now, as you say, it is a supply shock so quenching demand as the supply issues untangle is a recipe for a recession. That is why the markets are pricing in a short, sharp recession followed by some rate cuts in the next two years.



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,184 ✭✭✭riclad


    Prices are going up on basic items, food, ukraine is causing an energy crisis, eu is cutting off gas supplys from russia. price of energy ,oil, is going up. the difference is the usa can simply print money.the dollar is the currency of international trade. inflation has been very low since 2008.interest rates were low. now i go to the shop, i see items, oh this 2 euro item is now ,2.euro 60 cents.Gen z has never experienced inflation .certain companys do well in a recession, oil,energy companys. companys that sell cheap goods ,2 euro shops. this is a new cycle we are in. the 10 year tech boom is over.the stock market is falling.some tech companys are letting staff go. there are some countrys where inflation is 20 per cent plus. of course as inflation increases we will see strikes, as workers demand higher wages



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The option that some seem to want to take is to destroy demand now to bring in line with supply. And of course the only way to do this is to raise interest rates so high so fast that the economy is basically burned to the ground and demand disappears. Using monetary policy to try to deal with a supply shock by destroying demand seems insane to my layman’s eye. The collateral damage, not least of which to emerging markets, would be substantially



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    This is basically the reservation I have heard from a lot of economists that are worth listening to.

    You'll be beating down demand by essentially making middle income and lower income workers poorer, most likely generating significant unemployment in core economies like the EU and US, and developing and middle income economies can go to hell altogether.

    Meanwhile, the supply chain is still smoked because Putin is on a rampage and holding critical commodities hostage, and the dolts in Beijing on regular rolling lockdowns and have walled themselves off from the world.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 687 ✭✭✭Subzero3


    Inflation pre Ukrianie war was climbing. The EU went all in after that with oil sanctions basically throwing TNT into the furnace. They are slowly boiling the frog.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]



    Experts suggest some workers may be sitting on the sidelines, weighing their options, rethinking their work-life balance, bolstered perhaps by lockdown savings.


    Folks I can't understand how people saved money seating at PUP at home ! Seriously ! Were me and my wife went on PUP our incomes per week felt down around 900 euros what is Minus 3600 euros per month ! When we had pay bills and pay rent ! We didn't go out or we wasn't on holiday ? But we were losing even more than we could spend for it !

    So by some "experts" understanding Worker left job due with pandemic and saved enough money sitting on PUP what let him now enjoy life paying sky high rents ? Were this bs about savings coming from ?


    Might be time to say truth that rents are so sky high and amount of houses for rent near Zero ? That why nobody want to come to Ireland or many left and that why refugees from Ukraine already comming back home ?



    Look at photo of this family ! How many kids on it ? This family simply understood the cost of life rents and cresh with pre school costs in Dublin !




    No property bubble ?

    The another song about This Time is different ? And sure ! Media never tell lies !



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,086 ✭✭✭riddles


    The supposed trickle down effect was a sham largely benefiting the top layer and by the time it trickles to the bottom layer assett values have jumped costing more because the bottom layer are buying them off the top layer. The there’s a crash and it’s rinse and repeat.

    a model not wholly dissimilar to share cropping.

    since 1995, billionaires' wealth had risen from 1% to 3%. 

    "This increase was exacerbated during the Covid pandemic. In fact, 2020 marked the steepest increase in global billionaires' share of wealth on record," the report said.

    The world's richest 1% has taken more than a third of all additional wealth accumulated since 1995, while the bottom 50% captured just 2%.

    "After more than 18 months of Covid-19, the world is even more polarised," Lucas Chancel, co-director of the World Inequality Lab, based at the Paris School of Economics, told the Agence France-Presse news agency.

    "While the wealth of billionaires rose by more than €3.6tn (£3tn), 100 million more people joined the ranks of extreme poverty,"



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, 'trickle down', the biggest scam ever, and now we re experiencing the rapid collapse of the rentier economy!



  • Registered Users Posts: 8,239 ✭✭✭Pussyhands


    Real estate agents Redfin in the US, are laying off 8% of their staff. People will say companies hire and fire staff all the time. I've never seen these kinds of announcements before. (I wasn't reading about this kinda stuff in 08). We had a period of "economy only goes up" for a decade now. We're into a new period of uncertainty

    To all the departing people who put your faith in Redfin, I’m sorry we can’t keep our commitment to you. With May demand 17% below expectations, we don’t have enough work for our agents and support staff, and fewer sales leaves us with less money for headquarters projects.

    I Said We Wouldn’t Lay People Off Unless We Had To. We Have To.

    A layoff is always an awful shock, especially when I’ve said that we’d go through heck to avoid one, and that we raised hundreds of millions of dollars so we wouldn’t have to shed people after just a few months of uncertainty. But mortgage rates increased faster than at any point in history. We could be facing years, not months, of fewer home sales, and Redfin still plans to thrive. If falling from $97 per share to $8 doesn’t put a company through heck, I don’t know what does.


    Classic example of interest rates cooling demand.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,548 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Very concerning considering when stocks go down they normally switch into bonds because they are risk free right. Seem's like everyone is going into cash all of a sudden.

    The one thing no one mentions about this sovereign debt thing is the derivative market tied to them. All packaged up as AAA investment products, sold by the banks to hedge funds & pension funds. Similar to that mortgage backed securities scam, it was not the mortgages that made the dominoes collapse it was the credit swaps. Just this one is 100's of times bigger, so how do you bail that **** out ?

    Greece nearly collapsed a continent, Italy is a ten times bigger. Not going to be allowed to happen is it, so looks like never money printing regardless. What an outlook, low rates, high inflation and more debt or total collapse.

    “The earth is littered with the ruins of empires that believed they were eternal.”

    - Camille Paglia



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,018 ✭✭✭Jonnyc135


    Looks like that's why the ECB has called an emergency meeting today to figure out what they are going to do with the Italian bonds selling off dramatically. Bloomberg reporting they are going to Pandemic bond purchase reinvestments, not sure what this means is it the left over money that was not drawn down for the pandemic/reverse repo? someone may enlighten me.



  • Registered Users Posts: 29,296 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ...once again, the economy of the average person hasnt been improving over the last decade, it in fact has been rapidly declining, only asset markets, and the primary owners of assets have truly gained!

    what we re currently experiencing is rapid deflation in asset markets, as credit begins to dry up, yes this in linked to rising rates, but its an intentional economic crisis, and its gonna largely fail for the average person, but since theres plenty of protective measures in place for these primary asset owners, they ll be fine!

    ...again, sovereign debt crisis are normally caused by credit crisis, greece and italys issues were directly related to this in the past, the cause was in fact the credit crisis, i.e. not exactly greece or italys fault as such, but scapegoat's are always handy!



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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,339 ✭✭✭The One Doctor


    They're right about that. I'm sitting on the sidelines, reevaluating, moving to a career that better suits my family. Much more free time, same money, pension, guaranteed increments.

    Should've done it ten years ago.

    Burning your precious time and money with a burdensome mortgage seems like insanity to me.

    Some kids barely see their fathers nowadays



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